Week 5 Big Ten Breakdown

This is my week 5 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: There really is no debate here. The Buckeyes took care of business against Wisconsin, their top rival for the #1 Leaders Division spot. Braxton Miller quieted the people saying Guiton should maintain the starting position, as he had an excellent 4 TD game. As good as the Buckeyes looked, however, they looked susceptible to the passing game, as Jared Abbrederis had an insane receiving game. A big game from Northwestern's Joneses could cause some harm to OSU. I'm still giving the 'Cats only a 35% chance of victory. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Despite Wisconsin having lost two games already, they are still easily the #2 team in this division. Jared Abbrederis absolutely terrifies me in their matchup with NU. This Wisconsin team is a team that's just all-around solid. 50% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (3) Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
4. LW (4) Illinois: The Illini took care of business against a poor Miami (OH) team. The RedHawks managed fewer than 100 yards through the air, while the Illini put up over 600 yards of total offense. It was an impressive victory, but it was against a very bad team, so I'm not taking too much from it. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
5. LW (5) Indiana: The Hoosiers had a bye this week. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
6. LW (6) Purdue: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Purdue actually outgained Northern Illinois this week, and yet got steamrolled due to the Boilermakers turning the ball over 5 times. There is a very real chance Purdue will go winless in Big Ten play. Don't expect them to move out of this #6 spot for the rest of the year. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Northwestern: Northwestern had a bye this week, and no one else did well enough to supplant them. Expect the 'Cats to only get better from here as top offensive weapon Venric Mark returns from injury. 
2. LW (3) Nebraska: Nebraska did not play this week, but I still move them up to #2. This is for two reasons: First, I am thinking less and less of Michigan every week, and second, Nebraska has a very favorable schedule. Looking at this schedule, the worst I can see Nebraska doing this year is 8-4. That being said, while I feel they will finish at #2, I do not think they're the second best team in the division. I give NU a 70% chance of winning. 
3. LW (4) Iowa: The Hawkeyes continue to exceed expectations, as they put a beatdown on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They did this primarily through their defense, holding the Gophers to only 165 yards. On offense, Weisman continued to put on his best bulldozer imitation, and Rudock was, for the most part, impressively poised. The offense looks beatable, but is much better than assumed before the season started. I believe the game in Iowa City will be the toughest Legends Division matchup for Northwestern, but I still give the 'Cats a 60% chance of victory. 
4. LW (2) Michigan: I'm dropping the Wolverines from 2nd to 4th, despite them not playing this week. I feel this requires some explanation. Quite simply, I've become convinced my placing the Wolverines as high as I had been was due to nothing but the framing effect. I have seen nothing to demonstrate the Wolverines are a good team, other than their preseason expectations. In fact, I've seen a lot to indicate they are a bad team. They still have enough talent to perhaps start looking like a much better team, and they are fortunate in that their toughest matchups are at the end of the year, but for right now, this is simply not a good team. 75% chance of Northwestern victory. 
5.  LW (6) Michigan State: Michigan State did not play this week. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (5) Minnesota: Before their last game, many people were starting to think favorably of the Golden Gophers. Not anymore. Minnesota's offense looked utterly inept against the Hawkeyes. Granted, quarterback Philip Nelson was returning from an injury and probably will improve, but his improvement will not do enough to make this a good team. 85% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projections

Northwestern's likelihood of going undefeated takes a tiny drop to 3.00%. Still:

Our projected record remains at 9.35-2.65, leaving us with a most likely record of 9-3.