OSU @ Northwestern Preview: A Breakdown of the Buckeyes

Who is Ohio State? 

This one probably goes without saying. The Ohio State University (Their official name. I prefer An Ohio State University) is a state university located in Columbus, Ohio, with an undergraduate population of around 43,000 (i.e. about 5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 52nd among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

Very well. The Buckeyes went 12-0, despite playing several very close games to inferior teams. They did not play in a bowl due to probation.

How About This Year?

A solid 5-0, including an impressive win against Wisconsin last week. 

Recent History Against Northwestern

The last time the two teams played was 2008, a 45-10 drubbing that still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. 2007 was even worse (58-7), as was 2006 (54-10). 2005 was 48-7. Northwestern's most recent victory came in 2004, a 33-27 win.

Coaching

Urban Meyer is serving his second year as OSU's head coach, after previously coaching at Florida, where he won two national championships. He is yet to lose at Ohio State. Tom Herman is on his second year as the Buckeyes' offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He was previously at Iowa State. Everett Withers and Luke Fickell are spending their second years as co-defensive coordinators. 

Ohio State Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Ohio State's pass offense has been led by quarterback Braxton Miller, as well backup Kenny Guiton while Miller was out with an injury. Miller will start this game, however. The Buckeye passing game has been a bit of a conundrum, as the team has not looked notably impressive when focusing on yards, at only 214 per game (88th nationally). Despite this, they are fifteenth best in the country in completion percentage, at 68.8% and second best in TDs, with 19. The Buckeyes have multiple talented receivers, but the targets will most heavily be towards junior Devin Smith and senior Corey Brown, each of whom already have five touchdown catches this year. Also look for the OSU running backs to get involved in the receiving game. Fortunately, Northwestern's linebackers are good at pass coverage, so the backs don't concern me too much. That being said, I am very concerned about the Wildcats' ability to cover all the OSU receiver options. Dwight White, or Harris if he gets the start, will need to step up big. Advantage: OSU.

Ohio State Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

I would argue OSU's biggest run threat is none other than the quarterback, Braxton Miller. Miller has already carried the ball 40 times in his effectively two games played, and he has done it successfully, putting up 165 yards. The Buckeyes are not lacking for other running options, however. Carlos Hyde is back from suspension and is a huge threat. Jordan Hall already has 427 yards and freshman Ezekiel Elliot is putting up 9.5 yards per carry. There is a ton of depth here and, despite Northwestern having a solid run defense, it is concerning. All in all, their 287 yards per game is good for 12th in the country and their 6.27 yards per carry is frightening.  Advantage: OSU

Ohio State Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Buckeye run defense has been very solid, allowing a measly 84.6 yards per game. That being said, I think this Northwestern offense is up to the challenge. Teyvon Green, Mike Trumpy, and Kain Colter have performed admirably, leading the 'Cats to 250 yards per game on the ground. But adding Venric Mark back into the mix gives the 'Cats an almost indescribable boost. Venric opens up the spread option, improving Colter in the process, while Green and Trumpy still provide a power thread. A Mark-led run offense would scare any defense in the country. Advantage: Northwestern

Ohio State Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

What if I were to tell you that Ohio State' pass defense will be the worst the 'Cats have faced yet this year? It may not strictly be true, but there is a case to be made for that position, and I can safely argue that the Buckeye's pass defense is a big step down from at least Western Michigan's. OSU's secondary looked very vulnerable last week, particularly to Jared Abbrederis, and I have a hunch they will have trouble finding an answer for the Wildcats' wealth of receivers. They will struggle to cover both Joneses, and I suspect Rashad Lawrence will return to relevance this week. Furthermore, starting safety Christian Bryant is out for the season with an ankle injury. While the Buckeye's have tremendous depth at the position, anyone they put on the field will be a step down. I like the Wildcats in this matchup. Advantage: Northwestern.

Ohio State Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Northwestern's special teams have not lived up to expectations. For one thing, Jeff Budzien has already missed twice as many field goals as he did last year. On the other side of the ball, it is hard to get a read on OSU kicker Drew Basil, as he has taken only three field goals on the year, but made all of them. In terms of punting, while Brandon Williams has been hit-or-miss, Northwestern's punt coverage has been quite good, limiting teams to less than 3 yards per return. OSU has been comparable, limiting teams to exactly 3 yards per return. Additionally, there is also only about a yard difference in yards per punt, in OSU's favor. OSU furthermore has a slim lead in average kick return: 23.9 to 22.6. The biggest gap is in punt returns. The Buckeyes' 13.83 blows NU's 6.0 (on only one return) out of the water. The question is: Will Venric handle punt returns? If he does, OSU has no advantage in the punt game. In fact, I would argue NU has an advantage, perhaps even a large one. If he does not, the battle goes to the Buckeyes. Advantage: Northwestern if Venric handles returns, OSU if he does not

Bottom Line

In this matchup, the offenses beat the defenses. I foresee both offenses moving the ball with relative ease. In the end, I believe Northwestern will keep it extremely close, due in part to an advantage in turnovers, but Northwestern loses a close one in heartbreaking fashion, with most of the blame going to offensive and defensive line play. Prediction: OSU 34 - NU 31.  
Here's to hoping I'm wrong.