NU @ Iowa Preview: Getting to know the Hawkeyes

Who is Iowa? 

The University of Iowa is a state university located in Iowa City, Iowa, with an undergraduate population of around 22,000 (i.e. about 2.5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 73rd among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

Not well. Iowa went 4-8 and lost their last six games.

How About This Year?

They have already matched last year's win total, sitting at 4-3. 

Recent History Against Northwestern

Over the last 10 years, Northwestern owns this matchup, going 6-2, including a victory against then-#4 Iowa in 2009. 

Coaching

Head coach Kirk Ferentz is the longest tenured head coach in the Big Ten. He has been around since 1999. Greg Davis, who last served at Texas, is in his second year as the Hawkeyes' offensive coordinator. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker is serving his 15th year as a coach of the Hawkeyes, but only his second year as a coordinator.

Iowa Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Iowa's passing game has been mediocre this year. Sophomore quarterback Jake Rudock has not been bad, per se, but nothing about his performance this year has been terribly noteworthy. Iowa is sitting at 82nd nationally in pass yards per game with 214.4, but are slightly better when looking at yards per attempt (7.1 yrds/att, 65th nationally). The Hawkeyes' premier wide receiver is easily Kevonte Martin-Manley, who has almost twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team, with 27. Iowa also likes to use tight ends in their passing game. Expect C.J. Fiedorowicz and Jake Duzey to get multiple targets. Running back Damon Bullock is also likely to get involved. Finally  wideout Damon Powell is an interesting target, as he has only 8 catches on the year, but he leads the team in yardage with 241, averaging 30.1 yards per catch. 

As for Northwestern, lost in the dialogue of the last three weeks (understandably) is that the Northwestern pass defense has actually really stepped up their game. The 'Cats are allowing only 156.3 yards per game through the air over the last three contests. On top of this, the 'Cats are still among the best in the nation at intercepting passes, recording 13 (as many as they had all of last year, for the record). Only Missouri and Oregon State have more. Overall, I like this matchup for Northwestern, particularly since they are not that is frequently dominated by tight ends. If NU can limit Kevonte Martin-Manley, Rudock may struggle.

Advantage: Northwestern

Iowa Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

Iowa has run the ball reasonably well this year, putting up 192.4 yards per game, good for 40th in the country. Most of the credit here goes to Mark Weisman, a bulldozing, transfer, former walk-on, former-fullback workhorse. He has put up 676 yards on 136 carries, while taking the ball into the endzone 3 times. Backup tailback Damon Bullock will see most of the rest of the carries. He has been slightly less effective than Weisman but still has 312 yards. Rudock is no slouch on the ground himself, either. He has run the ball for 147 yards and leads the team with 5 rushing touchdowns. 

Overall, the 'Cats do not match up favorably to the Hawkeye run game. Northwestern has been bullied by power running attacks, particularly in the absence of McEvilly, who may or may not be available for this game. That being said, NU did a reasonably good job against the Gophers' running game last week. Regardless, I think Iowa has the upper hand, but I don't think this will be a catastrophic disadvantage for Northwestern.

Advantage: Iowa

Iowa Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

Overall, Iowa has been very good against the run. They are allowing only 115 yards per game, 16th best in the country. However, they showed some weakness against OSU last weak, as both Hyde and Miller broke the century mark. Northwestern, unfortunately, has been struggling to find an identity on the ground in the absence of Venric Mark, and the run game has been largely stagnant. However, the return of Colter should bring an explosive element to the running game that has been sorely missed. Furthermore, Iowa has a history of struggling against quarterbacks similar to Colter. The problem is, however, without an explosive back in the backfield, much of Colter's value is lost. That being said, last week, Stephen Buckley showed flashes of brilliance. I expect a big game from Buckley here and Northwestern to move the ball successfully on the ground.
Advantage: Northwestern 

Iowa Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

Iowa has only allowed 204 yards per game through the air, 26th best in the country. On top of that, they have intercepted a solid 9 passes. These statistics are somewhat misleading, however, as the Hawkeyes are yet to face a prolific passing team. The fact is, they are likely to be vulnerable. How the 'Cats perform is dependent on a couple things: first, which Siemian shows up. We have seen Trevor perform both like an NFL-caliber QB and like a total scrub this year. Fortunately, Colter's back, which should remove some pressure from him. I expect him to settle back into his groove, at least to an extent. And second, will the 'Cats be willing to follow through with the dink-and-dunk gameplan. I have watched enough NU-Iowa games to know that the dink-and-dunk will always work against the Hawkeyes. The reason for this is simple: the Iowa corners give a huge cushion against the receivers and virtually never press. For this reason, Colter may actually have a career day through the air. I do worry a bit about Siemian though, as he often is hesitant to check down to short receivers. If this becomes true, however, I imagine it just means more play time for Colter.
Advantage: Northwestern

Iowa Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Kickoffs: Wisconsin has averaged 63.07 yards per kickoff, while NU has averaged only 61.86. Iowa also has more touchbacks (48.8% touchback percentage) than do the 'Cats (40.9%). Northwestern is covering much better, however, allowing only 19.0 yards per return to Iowa's 25.8.

Punts: Brandon Williams, quite frankly, has been awful, punting an average of only 37.0. Iowa has not been great either, however, with an average of 39.7. The 'Cats have been better at covering, allowing only 4.0 yards per return. Iowa is allowing 6.0. 

Place Kicking: Budzien is 12 of 14 is still perfect on PATs. Iowa is 9 of 12 and also perfect on extra points. 

Kick Returns: Northwestern has returned kicks better, averaging 22.3 yards per return to Iowa's 19.5.
Punt Returns: The 'Cats have only three returns at an average of 7.3 yards per return. Iowa has returned kicks extremely well, averaging 21.8 yards on 11 returns.

Advantage: Iowa

Bottom Line

There's one x-factor that went unmentioned elsewhere in this post: Fitz hates Iowa. Truly loathes them. There's a visible fire in the 'Cats every time they step out on the field against the Hawks, a fire that has been lacking the last couple games. Perhaps I'm being naive, but I expect this to be a game where the Wildcats step out and show similar passion, explosiveness, and overall talent to what we saw them put up against the Buckeyes. With Colter back, the weapons are there; the 'Cats simply need to execute. I think they will. Heck, I'm feeling good right now, so I'll be even bolder: This is the game that kicks off an impressive 5-game win streak to end the season. Now, I'll admit, there's a chance the 'Cats come out flat and get beat up for 60 minutes. If that happens, I'll be about ready to give up on this year. But I honestly just don't see it. NU comes out hungry for a win, moves the ball effectively, and limits the Hawkeye offense.

Prediction: NU 31 - Iowa 17