Big Ten Week 6 Breakdown

This is my week 6 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: Who else? OSU put up an impressive win against a very solid Northwestern team in a surprisingly hostile Ryan Field. While Braxton Miller was shaky, the Buckeye's run game, led by Carlos Hyde, was almost unstoppable. On top of this, OSU's schedule from here on is, comparatively, a cake walk. There is very little chance the Buckeye's do not end up in Indianapolis. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Wisconsin had a bye in which they had extra time to prepare for the second toughest team on their Big Ten schedule: Northwestern. Overall, Wisconsin has a very solid team led by a stellar run offense and a tough defense. I think it's safe to say they are the single best 2-loss team, and one of the best unranked teams, in the country. The upcoming game against the Wildcats should be interesting. NU should have a difficult time stopping the run, but the NU offense will be similarly difficult to stop. I still have this as a coin-flip game. 50% chance of Northwestern victory.
3. LW (5) Indiana: The 3-5 ranking is tricky, but, as of now, I have the Hoosiers at 3. That being said, Indiana is still a tough team to judge. They put up a solid win against the Nittany Lions, but no part of their game truly stuck out as exceptional. Their pass offense was solid, as Sudfeld put up 321 yards, and they had a good, balanced run attack, but the defense is still questionable. Simply put, I think Indiana has the inside track to the best Big Ten record among Indiana, Illinois, and PSU, due in no small part to this victory. The Hoosiers do not play Northwestern.
4. LW (3) Penn State: Despite the loss, I still think the Nittany Lions are a better team than the Illini. Christian Hackenberg is actually coming into his own, as he threw for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns, although he needed 55 attempts to do it. Zwinack, too, has been decent, as he ran for 72 yards on 17 carries. Their upcoming game against the Wolverines could be very interesting. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
5. LW (4) Illinois: Let's be clear: Yes, Illinois, is much, much better than last year. BUT they're still not very good. Scheelhaase struggled badly against a poor Cornhuskers defense, and the Illini defense simply was not good enough to slow the UNL offense. Illinois will probably finish 2-6 or 3-5 in Big Ten play, but it would not surprise me all that much if the Purdue game is the only game the Illini win (speaking of, anyone want a 48 cent ticket? http://tinyurl.com/n7ttjdw). Right now, I foresee the Northwestern offense moving the ball at will against the Illini. 90% chance of Northwestern victory.
6. LW (6) Purdue: Mercifully, Purdue did not have to play this week, but they're still really, really bad. The Boilermakers do not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Northwestern: Despite losing to the Buckeyes, Northwestern solidified their place at the top of the Legends Division. The Wildcats' offense finally looked like the powerhouse we knew it could be, behind the return of Venric Mark and a greatly expanded playbook. The Northwestern run defense is a weakness, to be sure, but the 'Cats have the potential to outgun the best of them. The biggest obstacle to Northwestern finishing in this position is their schedule, the most difficult in the division, if not the conference. 
2. LW (2) Nebraska: Whereas the Wildcats have the most difficult schedule in the division, Nebraska has the easiest. They should be the favorite in five or six of their seven remaining games, and, for this reason, I have them at number two. Certainly, the Cornhuskers have some strong points. Abdullah, for example, is a heck of a back. But I have not seen enough to suggest that Nebraska has the defense to win this division. I don't see any way this Husker defense stops the Wildcat offense. I give NU a 75% chance of winning. 
3. LW (4) Michigan: The Wolverines' 42-13 victory over Minnesota is most likely their most impressive victory of the year, but it is by no means a win to hang your hat on. Nonetheless, I thought this game would be a potential upset, and that prediction now looks foolish. I must admit this team may be better than I had been beginning to think. In short, the Wolverines are a team with innumerable tools that are just having a difficult time figuring out how to use them. The Penn State game should be an interesting test. 65% chance of Northwestern victory. 
4. LW (5) Michigan State: 6 weeks in and I have no idea what to make of the Spartans. Their defense is, without a doubt, exceptional, but can their offense be good? And, even if their offense is not good, is the defense good enough that it doesn't matter? These are the questions I do not have answers to yet. Connor Cook certainly seems to be a big step up from the other Spartan quarterbacks, but I still have trouble believing this offense is good enough to compete for the Legends Division lead. Right now, I will say 75% chance of Northwestern victory. 
5.  LW (3) Iowa: I jumped on the "Iowa is good" bandwagon far too early. Injuries to Weisman and Martin-Manley demonstrated just how shallow the Hawkeye offense is, as they put up only 14 points and 23 run yards against the Spartans. Meanwhile, they let a poor MSU offense kill them through the air. Will they be better when their injured players recover? Of course. But an offense built on two players is not a stable one. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (6) Minnesota: Minnesota's season is falling apart before them. They lost badly to Iowa and Michigan, neither of whom I am convinced are great, while their head coach is going into a health-related leave of absence. Meanwhile, starting quarterback Philip Nelson is struggling with an injury. A Gopher victory over Northwestern at this point would be nothing short of shocking. 95% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projection

Despite Northwestern losing their shot at a perfect season, their projected record, based on my probabilities, takes only a small hit to 9.3-2.7.