Northwestern @ Wisconsin Preview

Who is Wisconsin? 

The University of Wisconsin is a state university located in Madison, with an undergraduate population of around 29,000 (i.e. about 3.5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 41st among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

They had a relatively unimpressive 7-5 regular season but nonetheless won the Big Ten championship in stunning fashion, crushing Nebraska 70-31. They lost to Stanford 20-14 in the Rose Bowl.

How About This Year?

They are only 3-2 with losses to Ohio State and Arizona State, but they may be the best 2-loss team in the country.

Recent History Against Northwestern

In our last matchup in 2010, the 'Cats lost a horrendous game 70-23. However, the year before was a 33-31 upset Northwestern victory. The matchup before that was a 41-9 Wisconsin win in 2006. 2005 was a 51-48 shootout NU win. Moral of the story: these games are either Wisconsin blowouts or Northwestern squeakers. 

Coaching

Gary Andersen is in his first year as head coach after Bret Bielema's departure to Arkansas. Previously, Andersen served at Utah State. His offensive coordinator is Andy Ludwig, in his first year after working at San Diego State.  Dave Aranda is in his first year as defensive coordinator after holding the same position under Andersen in Utah State.

Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

One name immediately stands out in the Wisconsin passing game: Jared Abbrederis. The senior receiver is 12th in the country in receiving with 114 yards per game, and he put on a show against OSU, catching 10 passes for 207 yards. The issue for the Badgers is they don't have many receiving options behind Abbrederis. He is responsible for 40% of their catches and a ridiculous 53% of their receiving yards. Their second and third receivers are a running back (James White) and tight end (Jacob Pedersen). Their second-leading wide receiver, in terms of yardage, is Jeff Duckworth who has only 3 catches for 68 yards. The Badgers' quarterback is Joel Stave, who has been unspectacular, but decent. Long story short: Limit Abbrederis and this pass offense will struggle. The issue is that that is much easier said than done. Typically, you would want to bracket a receiver of his quality with a safety, but the safeties are needed for run coverage against Wisconsin. Fortunately, the 'Cats secondary showed a huge improvement last week and Harris and White looked more comfortable. I expect Abbrederis to have a solid game, but the 'Cats should record an interception or two and limit the rest of the receivers enough to win this matchup.  Advantage: Northwestern.

Wisconsin Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Wisconsin running game is really, really good, as the Badgers lead the nation in yards per carry. On three occasions, Wisconsin has had two running backs rush for over 100 yards in a game. On two occasions, Wisconsin has had THREE running backs rush for over 100 yards in a game. Melvin Gordon has rushed for 10.26 yards per attempt, second nationally among players with at least 30 carries (he has 68 carries), while adding 7 TDs.  If these numbers don't scare you, I'm not sure what will. To make matters worse, the Wildcat run defense struggled badly against the OSU run attack, getting steamrolled by Carlos Hyde. Fortunately, Wisconsin has a slightly different running style. Expect their backs to run more outside the tackles than Hyde did. This brings the game more towards Northwestern's linebackers and defensive ends, rather than the 'Cats struggling defensive tackles. Still, I expect the Badgers to move the ball on the ground without too much difficulty. Advantage: Wisconsin

Wisconsin Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Badgers' run defense is solid, allowing only 99.4 yards per game, but they showed weakness against Ohio State, as both Hyde and Miller exceeded 80 yards. Linebacker Chris Borland is an absolute terror, but Northwestern has plenty of weapons of their own. Venric Mark had a good game last week, and there's reason to think he should be healthier and have a bigger role this week. On top of this, Colter should offer a similar threat to what Miller offered. I like the 'Cats here. Advantage: Northwestern

Wisconsin Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

The 'Cats' biggest advantage may be through the air. The Badgers' pass defense do not have bad numbers, but Braxton Miller had success passing the ball against them, getting it into the endzone four times. Simply put, the 'Cats have too many weapons for the Badgers to stop. Siemian throwing to Jones, other Jones, Lawrence, Jensen, Dickerson, Prater, Vitale, Colter, and Mark has to be scary for just about anyone, and I expect Trevor to have a big game. Advantage: Northwestern.

Wisconsin Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Kickoffs: Wisconsin has averaged 63.1 yards per kickoff, while NU has averaged only 61.4. However, the 'Cats have more touchbacks, with a 39.5% touchback rate, compared to the Badgers' 20.6%. NU is covering their kickoffs better, allowing only 17.5 yards per return, compared to the Badgers' 22.0.

Punts: Northwestern has not had great yardage in their punting, averaging only 37.0 yards per punt. Wisconsin has a good, but not great, 41.1 yards per punt. The 'Cats have been better at covering, however, allowing only 3.8 yards per return. Wisconsin is allowing 6.0. 

Place Kicking: The 'Cats have nailed 9 of 11 field goals and made every PAT. Wisconsin is only 5-8 and has missed a PAT.

Kick Returns: NU is averaging a solid 23.0 yards per return and may improve as Venric is likely to take over these duties. Wisconsin is averaging only 21.8.
Punt Returns: The 'Cats have only one return, which went for 6 yards, but this will almost definitely improve behind Venric. The Badgers have 13 returns at 7.1 yards per return.

Advantage: Northwestern

Bottom Line

Overall, I think Northwestern is the better team. However, the 'Cats have three things working against them. First, they put a great deal of effort and energy into last week's game. It can at times be challenging to recover enough to play a tough team the following week. Second, the Wisconsin run offense is much better than the Northwestern run defense. Can the 'Cats score enough to make up for this mismatch? Third, Camp Randall Stadium is a very challenging place to play. I see this game as virtually being a coin-flip matchup slightly in favor of Northwestern. Prediction: Northwestern 41 - Wisconsin 35.