Northwestern Men's Basketball Preview

I just got really excited because I realized I have something legitimate to write about instead of football: Northwestern basketball starts this Saturday! As most of you are well aware, Northwestern let Bill Carmody go in the offseason, and replaced him with former Duke assistant coach Chris Collins. As a result, expect Northwestern basketball to look very different than it once did. Gone will be the slow-paced, methodical Princeton offense. In its place will be a faster-paced offense that will give playmakers more room to create. Many Northwestern fans are concerned about the ramifications of this change for this year, as Northwestern's current players were all recruited to be a part of a Princeton offense. However, I believe the current system will be more beneficial to players like Crawford and Cobb than was the Princeton offense. Gone too will be gimmicky defenses like the 1-3-1 and the bizarre version of the 2-3 we occasionally used. Instead, Northwestern figures to use man defense almost exclusively. Collins has supposedly put a huge emphasis on defensive principles, which, to be honest, is way past due. Unfortunately, this Northwestern team is not at all deep, and the odds of them making the tournament are quite slim. However, this should still be an exciting year, as we will catch a glimpse of the future of Northwestern basketball. Anyways, lets take a look at Northwestern's players and how they figure to fit in this year.

Guards

Dave Sobolewski, JR: Sobolewski projects to be the starting point guard for the Wildcats for the third straight year. Depending on the game, Sobolewski has either been very impressive or totally infuriating throughout his career. He can be a tremendous liability on the defensive end, with a 109.7 defensive rating (estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions). To put that in context, a well-respected defensive point guard, Aaron Craft, has a career defensive rating of 90.5. His scoring was inconsistent, as he had some very efficient scoring performances, but he also took some very ill-advised driving layups. Ultimately, he had a decent, but not great, true shooting percentage (a measure that weighs 3-pointers, 2-pointers, and free throws appropriately) of 50.3% last season, good for 39th among Big Ten players playing in at least 23 games. His best value was as a floor general, as his 4.0 assists per game and 2.1 assist to turnover ratio were both 6th in the Big Ten. As the Northwestern offense changes this year, Sobo's role will obviously change as well. He will likely have more freedom and more room to create. It will be interesting to see how he reacts. 

Jershon Cobb, RS JR: Cobb figures to be the starting shooting guard this year, but Collins has discussed playing him at point guard as well, particularly when using a big lineup. Cobb was suspended for all of last year, allegedly due to poor grades but, before that, he was one of NU's most promising players. On the defensive front, this is one area where the advanced statistics and the eye test disagree. His career defensive rating is a poor 107.6, but he always looked good on the defensive end, particularly at the top of the 1-3-1, using his length to disrupt passing lanes, and his very impressive 4.3% steal percentage in 2011-2012 is a testament to that. On the offensive end, he was inconsistent, but was certainly capable of big games, including a stunning 24 point, 8 rebound game against Minneosta in the Big Ten tournament. One would like to see his 51.0% true shooting percentage improve, but I think it will as Cobb was improving dramatically at the end of the 2011-2012 season. On top of this, Cobb's biggest issue always seemed to be that he was a poor fit for the Princeton offense, as he was easily at his best creating his own shot off the dribble. Collins's offense, which should allow Cobb more iso opportunities, should be ideal for him. 

Tre Demps, RS SO: Demps figures to split time at point guard and shooting guard this year. After suffering an injury in his true freshman year, he played 31 games last season. To put it bluntly, there was very little to like statistically about Demps last year. Like Cobb, Demps was a somewhat poor fit for the Princeton offense. As a guy who likes creating his own shot, he often went against the grain of the offense, chucking up ill-advised shots. His 48.0% TS% was poor, and his 1.1 assist/TO ratio is not what you want to see from a guy who is expected to play some point guard. When he got hot, there's no doubt he could score in bunches, but the 'Cats need much better consistency from him. There wasn't much to like on the defensive end either, with a 109.3 defensive rating and only 0.4 steals per game. Demps has promise, and he certainly may benefit from a new offense, but he must improve this year, as the 'Cats are lacking guard options off the bench. 

James Montgomery III, SR: Despite having used only two years of elligibility, Montgomery is listed as a senior, so I'm assuming this is his last year. Previously a walk-on, Montgomery earned a full scholarship this season. He has not provided a nearly large enough sample size to make a good judgment of his past performance, but he is purportedly an extremely hard-working guy and a talented perimeter defender. His minutes will likely go up significantly this year, as the 'Cats have such little depth, but I still expect him to be little more than a role player.

Forwards

Drew Crawford, RS SR: Crawford is undeniably the star of this team. While he is more a prototypical small forward, he will likely have to start at power forward. Crawford got injured last year, in what was supposed to be his senior year, took a medical redshirt, and is ready to go again this year. Like everyone else on this team, Crawford has a poor defensive rating, but he's always looked at least competent in man defense. He also recorded a solid 1.2 steals per game in the 2011-2012 season.being one of Northwestern's best rebounders, recording 4.7 rebounds per game in 2011-2012. He primarily excels on the offensive end, however. His 58.1% TS% was 14th in the Big Ten in 2011-2012, and he was sixth in the Big Ten in scoring per game, even while his teammate, John Shurna, led the conference. He also looked excellent behind the arc, hitting 41.2% of his 3's. It will be interesting to see how he fits into this new offense. He at times certainly benefited from the looks he got in the Princeton offense, but he may also also benefit from having more freedom in this new system.

Sanjay Lumpkin, RS FR: Lumpkin only appeared in four games before taking a redshirt last year, but he is still widely projected to be the starting small forward this year. Honestly, I know very little about the guy. He was a 3-star recruit with decent size and length, and he figures to be a pretty solid defender. Other than this, I haven't seen nearly enough of him to make any form of judgment. 

Kale Abrahamson, SO: I have also heard some predict that Abrahamson will get the start at the 3. He certainly has more experience than does Lumpkin, but his body of work is not a strong endorsement. Abrahamson often looked lost on the court and did not have nearly enough size or strength to match up against his counterparts. His 49.6% TS% needs to improve, and he was too prone to throw up off-balance shots. Certainly, he has the potential to become a great outside shooter, if nothing else, but he is not there yet.

Nikola Cerina, RS SR: Cerina is kind of an odd case. After spending two years at TCU, he played his first year at Northwestern last season. However, he only saw time in 14 games, despite fans' pleas to see more of him. I expect to see significantly more of him this year, as he'll split time at power forward and center. He's a strong, athletic guy who can match up well at both positions and provide a lot of rebounds. However, you definitely want to see better offense from him. All things considered, I hope he can show enough promise to play good minutes at the 4, so Crawford can play the 3. 

Nate Taphorn, FR: Taphorn is Northwestern's only new player this season. He was a well-regarded recruit, but was extremely undersized for either forward position. Regardless, it seems he has bulked up somewhat and has held up in practices better than his size would suggest. Purportedly, he is a very good shooter, and a good ball handler and passer, with excellent upside. As of right now, it is very difficult to project how much time he'll see this season, but based on the practice notes I have seen, he may see significant minutes this year.
EDIT: Based on recent comments by Coach Collins, it appears Taphorn will see major minutes, and may even get a chance to start. 

Centers

Alex Olah, SO: Olah was the starting center last year as a freshman. He saw 22.2 minutes per game, a number that is likely to increase, given the lack of depth at the position. His performance of last year was much-maligned, and it is true that, statistically speaking, there is not a great deal to like. His .415 shooting percentage is well below what you'd like to see from a center, and his 4.1 rebounds per game could stand to improve. That being said, given the difficult situation in which he was placed, I was relatively happy with what I saw from him. Olah spent a part of the offseason playing for the Romanian U-20 team, in which he tore up the FIBA European Championships, putting up 16.8 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.6 blocked shots per game. Evidently, he is gaining confidence and has the potential to be the best big man the 'Cats have seen in a while. Carmody was always notoriously bad at developing big men, and Olah will very likely benefit from a new staff.

Chier Ajou, RS FR: At 7-2, Ajou is TALL. Unfortunately, that's about all he seems to have going for him at this point. He is extremely raw, particularly on the offensive end, and must be described as a project. There's a chance he may contribute for the 'Cats this year, and it would be good if we could get some minutes for him to take some of the burden off Olah, but most of the production we'll ever see from Ajou is most likely at least a couple years into the future. 

Aaron Liberman, RS FR: I also know very little about Liberman, but I don't think we should expect huge production from him, as he still needs to bulk up to play the center position. If he does play, he may record a few blocks and a few points around the rim, but, like Ajou, he is a project. There is certainly some cause for concern about depth at the center position. 

Bottom Line

The 'Cats do not have a great chance of finally making the tournament this year and will more likely than not be in the bottom four in the Big Ten. That being said, there is still plenty of reason to pay attention this season. This year is effectively a preview of the future of Northwestern basketball. We should get a good look at what Collins will do here, and with very exciting recruiting taking place, there is a lot to like moving forward. 

Northwestern @ Nebraska Preview

Who is Nebraska

The University of Nebraska-Lincoln is a state university located in Lincoln, Nebraska (that was probably obvious), with an undergraduate population of around 19,300 (i.e. about 2.25 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 101st among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

They had a very respectable 10-2 regular season before getting crushed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship and losing to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl. 

How About This Year?

5-2 with losses to UCLA and Minnesota.

Recent History Against Northwestern

The teams have only matched up twice since Nebraska joined the Big Ten. In 2011, the 'Cats picked an upset 28-25 victory in Lincoln. In 2012, Northwestern lost 29-28 as Budzien missed a potential game winning field goal. 

Coaching

Head coach Bo Pelini is in his 6th year as head coach of the Cornhuskers. Tim Beck is in his 6th year at Nebraska, and 3rd yeard as offensive coordinator. John Papuchis is also in his 6th year at Nebraska, but only his 2nd year as defensive coordinator. 

Nebraska Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

With Taylor Martinez suffering from an injury, it appears freshman Tommy Armstrong Jr. will get the start. He has been very unimpressive in his three games played, as he has completed only 56.5% of his passes for 365 yards, 3 TDs and 3 INTs. This includes a dreadful 6-18, 3 pick game against Purdue. I would not be at all surprised to see Nebraska switch to senior Ron Kellogg III, who has completed over 75% of his passes without throwing a pick. Why he is not tabbed to start this game is beyond me. Fortunately for Armstrong, he does have talented receivers, particularly senior Quincy Enuwa, who already has 7 touchdowns, and junior Kenny Bell. Also expect running back Ameer Abdullah to get involved in the receiving game. 

The Wildcat pass defense, on the other hand, has quietly been quite good since the beginning of Big Ten play. Northwestern has allowed a measly 184 yards per game against their four conference opponents, while recording 4 interceptions. The safety play has been great and Matt Harris is excelling in his new role as a starter. 

Advantage: Northwestern 

Nebraska Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Cornhuskers have a scary group of running backs. Ameer Abdullah is unquestionably the feature back, as he has over twice as many carries as anyone else, and he has excelled in this role, picking up 981 yards and 6 TDs. His 140 yards per game and 7.38 yards per carry are definite causes for concern for the 'Cats. Imani Cross is also scary. His 334 yards are not nearly as impressive as Abdullah's, but he actually leads the team in rushing touchdowns, with 9. Terrell Newby has been impressive as well, running for 290 yards and 2 TDs, but he likely will not see that many carries in this game. Tommy Armstrong Jr. is also a running threat, but his 84 yards on 22 attempts are not terribly frightening. 

The Northwestern run defense has looked weak at times this year, but they found their stride late against both Minnesota and Iowa. Both teams have solid run games, but the 'Cats held them to an average of 156 yards per game and 3.47 yards per attempt. 

Advantage: Nebraska

Nebraska Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Northwestern run game has been heavily affected by injury as Mark, Trumpy, and Long are all out, while Green seems to be somewhat beaten up. This figures to be Stephen Buckley's time to shine. Fortunately, Buckley has performed well as of late, including a 17 carry, 99 yard performance against Iowa. Colter figures to provide most of the rest of the carries for the 'Cats. 
The Nebraska run defense has been hit or miss, allowing only 62 yards to SMU and only 32 to Purdue. However, they got torched by Minnesota for 271 yards and even allowed 227 to South Dakota St. If Buckley finds his stride, and I think it will, UNL may struggle against the run. 
Advantage: Northwestern 

Nebraska Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

Northwestern's pass game has been highly lacking lately. Siemian performed poorly against both Wisconsin and Minnesta and did not attempt a pass against Iowa. Colter is rarely given opportunities to throw. What kind of passing game we'll see from NU, therefore, depends on two factors: If Siemain sees the field much and how he'll look if he does. 
Nebraska has been pretty solid against the pass, even in their loss against Minnesota, where they allowed only a 47.1% completion rate. They are yet to see an even average pass offense in Big Ten play, however. Unfortunately for Northwestern, they have been solid at intercepting passes, picking off 11. 
Advantage: Nebraska

Iowa Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Kickoffs: Nebraska has averaged 62.3 yards per kickoff, while NU has averaged only 61.5. Nebraska also has more touchbacks (64.7% touchback percentage) than do the 'Cats (40.4%). The two are covering kickoffs approximately equally at 18.6 yards per return to Nebraska's 18.4.

Punts: Brandon Williams has still been awful, punting an average of only 36.7. Nebraska has been much better at 42.6. The 'Cats have been better at covering, allowing only 4.6 yards per return. Nebraska is allowing 7.0. 

Place Kicking: Budzien is 13 of 15 on field goals and is still perfect on PATs. Nebraksa is a perfect 7 of 7 on field goals. They have however, missed 3 PATs. 

Kick Returns: Northwestern has averaged 22.6 yards per return to Nebraska's 23.6.
Punt Returns: The 'Cats have only three returns at an average of 7.3 yards per return. Nebraska, however, has averaged only 4.0 yards per return.

Advantage: Nebraska

Bottom Line

I hope you like run plays because you'll be seeing a lot of them. Nebraska's offensive identity is almost entirely in the run game, and they're not going to break from that. Northwestern's pass game has been virtually non-existent. While that could change, due to the 'Cats' shortage of backs, I kinda doubt it will.

Honestly, I could easily see Northwestern winning this game. On the other hand, I could easily see Nebraska winning this game. And I've learned by now that picking Northwestern is usually the wrong pick. So I'm predicting Nebraska to win tomorrow in a 27-20 game that will see fewer than 300 combined pass yards. 

NU @ Iowa Preview: Getting to know the Hawkeyes

Who is Iowa? 

The University of Iowa is a state university located in Iowa City, Iowa, with an undergraduate population of around 22,000 (i.e. about 2.5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 73rd among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

Not well. Iowa went 4-8 and lost their last six games.

How About This Year?

They have already matched last year's win total, sitting at 4-3. 

Recent History Against Northwestern

Over the last 10 years, Northwestern owns this matchup, going 6-2, including a victory against then-#4 Iowa in 2009. 

Coaching

Head coach Kirk Ferentz is the longest tenured head coach in the Big Ten. He has been around since 1999. Greg Davis, who last served at Texas, is in his second year as the Hawkeyes' offensive coordinator. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker is serving his 15th year as a coach of the Hawkeyes, but only his second year as a coordinator.

Iowa Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Iowa's passing game has been mediocre this year. Sophomore quarterback Jake Rudock has not been bad, per se, but nothing about his performance this year has been terribly noteworthy. Iowa is sitting at 82nd nationally in pass yards per game with 214.4, but are slightly better when looking at yards per attempt (7.1 yrds/att, 65th nationally). The Hawkeyes' premier wide receiver is easily Kevonte Martin-Manley, who has almost twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team, with 27. Iowa also likes to use tight ends in their passing game. Expect C.J. Fiedorowicz and Jake Duzey to get multiple targets. Running back Damon Bullock is also likely to get involved. Finally  wideout Damon Powell is an interesting target, as he has only 8 catches on the year, but he leads the team in yardage with 241, averaging 30.1 yards per catch. 

As for Northwestern, lost in the dialogue of the last three weeks (understandably) is that the Northwestern pass defense has actually really stepped up their game. The 'Cats are allowing only 156.3 yards per game through the air over the last three contests. On top of this, the 'Cats are still among the best in the nation at intercepting passes, recording 13 (as many as they had all of last year, for the record). Only Missouri and Oregon State have more. Overall, I like this matchup for Northwestern, particularly since they are not that is frequently dominated by tight ends. If NU can limit Kevonte Martin-Manley, Rudock may struggle.

Advantage: Northwestern

Iowa Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

Iowa has run the ball reasonably well this year, putting up 192.4 yards per game, good for 40th in the country. Most of the credit here goes to Mark Weisman, a bulldozing, transfer, former walk-on, former-fullback workhorse. He has put up 676 yards on 136 carries, while taking the ball into the endzone 3 times. Backup tailback Damon Bullock will see most of the rest of the carries. He has been slightly less effective than Weisman but still has 312 yards. Rudock is no slouch on the ground himself, either. He has run the ball for 147 yards and leads the team with 5 rushing touchdowns. 

Overall, the 'Cats do not match up favorably to the Hawkeye run game. Northwestern has been bullied by power running attacks, particularly in the absence of McEvilly, who may or may not be available for this game. That being said, NU did a reasonably good job against the Gophers' running game last week. Regardless, I think Iowa has the upper hand, but I don't think this will be a catastrophic disadvantage for Northwestern.

Advantage: Iowa

Iowa Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

Overall, Iowa has been very good against the run. They are allowing only 115 yards per game, 16th best in the country. However, they showed some weakness against OSU last weak, as both Hyde and Miller broke the century mark. Northwestern, unfortunately, has been struggling to find an identity on the ground in the absence of Venric Mark, and the run game has been largely stagnant. However, the return of Colter should bring an explosive element to the running game that has been sorely missed. Furthermore, Iowa has a history of struggling against quarterbacks similar to Colter. The problem is, however, without an explosive back in the backfield, much of Colter's value is lost. That being said, last week, Stephen Buckley showed flashes of brilliance. I expect a big game from Buckley here and Northwestern to move the ball successfully on the ground.
Advantage: Northwestern 

Iowa Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

Iowa has only allowed 204 yards per game through the air, 26th best in the country. On top of that, they have intercepted a solid 9 passes. These statistics are somewhat misleading, however, as the Hawkeyes are yet to face a prolific passing team. The fact is, they are likely to be vulnerable. How the 'Cats perform is dependent on a couple things: first, which Siemian shows up. We have seen Trevor perform both like an NFL-caliber QB and like a total scrub this year. Fortunately, Colter's back, which should remove some pressure from him. I expect him to settle back into his groove, at least to an extent. And second, will the 'Cats be willing to follow through with the dink-and-dunk gameplan. I have watched enough NU-Iowa games to know that the dink-and-dunk will always work against the Hawkeyes. The reason for this is simple: the Iowa corners give a huge cushion against the receivers and virtually never press. For this reason, Colter may actually have a career day through the air. I do worry a bit about Siemian though, as he often is hesitant to check down to short receivers. If this becomes true, however, I imagine it just means more play time for Colter.
Advantage: Northwestern

Iowa Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Kickoffs: Wisconsin has averaged 63.07 yards per kickoff, while NU has averaged only 61.86. Iowa also has more touchbacks (48.8% touchback percentage) than do the 'Cats (40.9%). Northwestern is covering much better, however, allowing only 19.0 yards per return to Iowa's 25.8.

Punts: Brandon Williams, quite frankly, has been awful, punting an average of only 37.0. Iowa has not been great either, however, with an average of 39.7. The 'Cats have been better at covering, allowing only 4.0 yards per return. Iowa is allowing 6.0. 

Place Kicking: Budzien is 12 of 14 is still perfect on PATs. Iowa is 9 of 12 and also perfect on extra points. 

Kick Returns: Northwestern has returned kicks better, averaging 22.3 yards per return to Iowa's 19.5.
Punt Returns: The 'Cats have only three returns at an average of 7.3 yards per return. Iowa has returned kicks extremely well, averaging 21.8 yards on 11 returns.

Advantage: Iowa

Bottom Line

There's one x-factor that went unmentioned elsewhere in this post: Fitz hates Iowa. Truly loathes them. There's a visible fire in the 'Cats every time they step out on the field against the Hawks, a fire that has been lacking the last couple games. Perhaps I'm being naive, but I expect this to be a game where the Wildcats step out and show similar passion, explosiveness, and overall talent to what we saw them put up against the Buckeyes. With Colter back, the weapons are there; the 'Cats simply need to execute. I think they will. Heck, I'm feeling good right now, so I'll be even bolder: This is the game that kicks off an impressive 5-game win streak to end the season. Now, I'll admit, there's a chance the 'Cats come out flat and get beat up for 60 minutes. If that happens, I'll be about ready to give up on this year. But I honestly just don't see it. NU comes out hungry for a win, moves the ball effectively, and limits the Hawkeye offense.

Prediction: NU 31 - Iowa 17

NU @ Wisconsin Recap

I want to begin this post with a humble plea to my fellow Wildcat fans: Stop freaking out. I have to say, the sort of pessimistic, reactionary attitude I see from so many fellow fans is somewhat confusing to me. Why is it that when we play like a top-10 team one week and then like garbage the next, everyone assumes the bad week is the true showing of who we are while the good week is an aberration? I would like to remind everyone that we saw a similar trend last year; it just happened to be against much-inferior teams. We came out and crushed Indiana in week one of conference play and then struggled horribly against PSU the next week. Nonetheless, we ended with a pretty solid year. So fear not, this season is far from over. After this paragraph, I'm going to take a much more negative tone, but keep in mind my feelings about the game are in no way reflective of my feelings about the season, and I remain fairly optimistic.
With that PSA out of the way, I can't lie, that game was utter garbage. It has been quite a while since I've watched a game where everything was out of sync to quite the extent it was in this game. Last was, coincidentally, probably 2011 against Wisconsin. The offense was out of rhythm, the defense looked lost, the energy was not there, Fitz was at a total loss for answers,... It was bad. Let's get into a point-by-point look and see what went wrong.
Trevor Siemian: Trevor is a bit of a conundrum, and his lack of consistency is a bit worrying. One game he can look like a solid pro prospect and the next he looks like he should not be starting at a D1 program. Many people seem to forget that he's had these types of games before, as he completed only 1 of 7 passes against Minnesota last year and 15 of 35 against Nebraska. Then those who do remember he's done this before often seem to forget that he's still perfectly capable of having great games. Let's be clear, we're not going to win many games where our QB goes 13 of 34, as he did this week. But I think he'll recover. He simply looked out of rhythm this week, and while I can make no pretension he will never have another game like this, I do not believe these weeks will become the norm.
Kain Colter: Colter got very limited time at quarterback before injuring his ankle, but he did lead the first drive, during which he threw a very bad interception. Oddly, while the ankle injury took him out of the quarterback role, he still saw time at wide receiver. Here, however, he did not look nearly as sharp as usual, which I can only assume is due to the injury. At this point, his status for the Minnesota game is unclear.
Venric Mark: Venric, too, suffered an ankle injury, and he only got 3 carries before leaving the game. Unlike Colter, he saw no play time after leaving the field. His status is also up in the air.
Other running backs: No one successfully stepped up in Mark's absence, as other backs accounted for only 42 rush yards.
Wide Receivers and Superbacks: Siemian receives a lot of blame for the passing game, but this receiving crew deserves a great deal as well. I gave them high praise before the game, and they did not live up to it. They had difficulty getting separation, and even when they did, they dropped a number of passes. Before this game, they were dropping almost nothing. I'm not sure what happened, but it was an absolute mess.
Offensive Line: The offensive line's pass protection in this game was terrible. They had trouble picking up blitzes, and even when they could properly matchup with the rush, they got overpowered. Northwestern quarterbacks got sacked an absurd 7 times. That simply cannot happen.
Run Defense: This is likely to sound ridiculous, as the 'Cats gave up 286 yards on the ground, but I wasn't that unhappy with the run defense. Early in the game, Northwestern defended the run quite successfully. The defense only began to break down after they were starting to have to see the field far too much, due to the offense's anemic performances. There actually may be some room for encouragement here.
Pass Defense: First, kudos to the secondary for their two interceptions, but the 241 yards and 3 touchdowns should not have happened. The Badgers were missing Jared Abbrederis for most of the game, but still managed to find success throwing to some less-than-impressive receivers. The secondary should have been able to do more.
Brandon Williams: Williams saw the most action he will probably ever see, punting 11 times, but he did not look good in that action. With the exception of a 49 yard boot, his punts, quite frankly, were terrible.
Jeff Budzien: The brightest point of this game, responsible for all 6 of our points (ugh) on 2 of 2 kicking, including a 43-yarder.

Bottom Line
This was a terrible, awful, horrible game, but assuming it has much predictive value is a mistake. Simple as that.

Northwestern @ Wisconsin Preview

Who is Wisconsin? 

The University of Wisconsin is a state university located in Madison, with an undergraduate population of around 29,000 (i.e. about 3.5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 41st among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

They had a relatively unimpressive 7-5 regular season but nonetheless won the Big Ten championship in stunning fashion, crushing Nebraska 70-31. They lost to Stanford 20-14 in the Rose Bowl.

How About This Year?

They are only 3-2 with losses to Ohio State and Arizona State, but they may be the best 2-loss team in the country.

Recent History Against Northwestern

In our last matchup in 2010, the 'Cats lost a horrendous game 70-23. However, the year before was a 33-31 upset Northwestern victory. The matchup before that was a 41-9 Wisconsin win in 2006. 2005 was a 51-48 shootout NU win. Moral of the story: these games are either Wisconsin blowouts or Northwestern squeakers. 

Coaching

Gary Andersen is in his first year as head coach after Bret Bielema's departure to Arkansas. Previously, Andersen served at Utah State. His offensive coordinator is Andy Ludwig, in his first year after working at San Diego State.  Dave Aranda is in his first year as defensive coordinator after holding the same position under Andersen in Utah State.

Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

One name immediately stands out in the Wisconsin passing game: Jared Abbrederis. The senior receiver is 12th in the country in receiving with 114 yards per game, and he put on a show against OSU, catching 10 passes for 207 yards. The issue for the Badgers is they don't have many receiving options behind Abbrederis. He is responsible for 40% of their catches and a ridiculous 53% of their receiving yards. Their second and third receivers are a running back (James White) and tight end (Jacob Pedersen). Their second-leading wide receiver, in terms of yardage, is Jeff Duckworth who has only 3 catches for 68 yards. The Badgers' quarterback is Joel Stave, who has been unspectacular, but decent. Long story short: Limit Abbrederis and this pass offense will struggle. The issue is that that is much easier said than done. Typically, you would want to bracket a receiver of his quality with a safety, but the safeties are needed for run coverage against Wisconsin. Fortunately, the 'Cats secondary showed a huge improvement last week and Harris and White looked more comfortable. I expect Abbrederis to have a solid game, but the 'Cats should record an interception or two and limit the rest of the receivers enough to win this matchup.  Advantage: Northwestern.

Wisconsin Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Wisconsin running game is really, really good, as the Badgers lead the nation in yards per carry. On three occasions, Wisconsin has had two running backs rush for over 100 yards in a game. On two occasions, Wisconsin has had THREE running backs rush for over 100 yards in a game. Melvin Gordon has rushed for 10.26 yards per attempt, second nationally among players with at least 30 carries (he has 68 carries), while adding 7 TDs.  If these numbers don't scare you, I'm not sure what will. To make matters worse, the Wildcat run defense struggled badly against the OSU run attack, getting steamrolled by Carlos Hyde. Fortunately, Wisconsin has a slightly different running style. Expect their backs to run more outside the tackles than Hyde did. This brings the game more towards Northwestern's linebackers and defensive ends, rather than the 'Cats struggling defensive tackles. Still, I expect the Badgers to move the ball on the ground without too much difficulty. Advantage: Wisconsin

Wisconsin Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Badgers' run defense is solid, allowing only 99.4 yards per game, but they showed weakness against Ohio State, as both Hyde and Miller exceeded 80 yards. Linebacker Chris Borland is an absolute terror, but Northwestern has plenty of weapons of their own. Venric Mark had a good game last week, and there's reason to think he should be healthier and have a bigger role this week. On top of this, Colter should offer a similar threat to what Miller offered. I like the 'Cats here. Advantage: Northwestern

Wisconsin Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

The 'Cats' biggest advantage may be through the air. The Badgers' pass defense do not have bad numbers, but Braxton Miller had success passing the ball against them, getting it into the endzone four times. Simply put, the 'Cats have too many weapons for the Badgers to stop. Siemian throwing to Jones, other Jones, Lawrence, Jensen, Dickerson, Prater, Vitale, Colter, and Mark has to be scary for just about anyone, and I expect Trevor to have a big game. Advantage: Northwestern.

Wisconsin Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Kickoffs: Wisconsin has averaged 63.1 yards per kickoff, while NU has averaged only 61.4. However, the 'Cats have more touchbacks, with a 39.5% touchback rate, compared to the Badgers' 20.6%. NU is covering their kickoffs better, allowing only 17.5 yards per return, compared to the Badgers' 22.0.

Punts: Northwestern has not had great yardage in their punting, averaging only 37.0 yards per punt. Wisconsin has a good, but not great, 41.1 yards per punt. The 'Cats have been better at covering, however, allowing only 3.8 yards per return. Wisconsin is allowing 6.0. 

Place Kicking: The 'Cats have nailed 9 of 11 field goals and made every PAT. Wisconsin is only 5-8 and has missed a PAT.

Kick Returns: NU is averaging a solid 23.0 yards per return and may improve as Venric is likely to take over these duties. Wisconsin is averaging only 21.8.
Punt Returns: The 'Cats have only one return, which went for 6 yards, but this will almost definitely improve behind Venric. The Badgers have 13 returns at 7.1 yards per return.

Advantage: Northwestern

Bottom Line

Overall, I think Northwestern is the better team. However, the 'Cats have three things working against them. First, they put a great deal of effort and energy into last week's game. It can at times be challenging to recover enough to play a tough team the following week. Second, the Wisconsin run offense is much better than the Northwestern run defense. Can the 'Cats score enough to make up for this mismatch? Third, Camp Randall Stadium is a very challenging place to play. I see this game as virtually being a coin-flip matchup slightly in favor of Northwestern. Prediction: Northwestern 41 - Wisconsin 35. 

Big Ten Week 6 Breakdown

This is my week 6 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: Who else? OSU put up an impressive win against a very solid Northwestern team in a surprisingly hostile Ryan Field. While Braxton Miller was shaky, the Buckeye's run game, led by Carlos Hyde, was almost unstoppable. On top of this, OSU's schedule from here on is, comparatively, a cake walk. There is very little chance the Buckeye's do not end up in Indianapolis. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Wisconsin had a bye in which they had extra time to prepare for the second toughest team on their Big Ten schedule: Northwestern. Overall, Wisconsin has a very solid team led by a stellar run offense and a tough defense. I think it's safe to say they are the single best 2-loss team, and one of the best unranked teams, in the country. The upcoming game against the Wildcats should be interesting. NU should have a difficult time stopping the run, but the NU offense will be similarly difficult to stop. I still have this as a coin-flip game. 50% chance of Northwestern victory.
3. LW (5) Indiana: The 3-5 ranking is tricky, but, as of now, I have the Hoosiers at 3. That being said, Indiana is still a tough team to judge. They put up a solid win against the Nittany Lions, but no part of their game truly stuck out as exceptional. Their pass offense was solid, as Sudfeld put up 321 yards, and they had a good, balanced run attack, but the defense is still questionable. Simply put, I think Indiana has the inside track to the best Big Ten record among Indiana, Illinois, and PSU, due in no small part to this victory. The Hoosiers do not play Northwestern.
4. LW (3) Penn State: Despite the loss, I still think the Nittany Lions are a better team than the Illini. Christian Hackenberg is actually coming into his own, as he threw for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns, although he needed 55 attempts to do it. Zwinack, too, has been decent, as he ran for 72 yards on 17 carries. Their upcoming game against the Wolverines could be very interesting. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
5. LW (4) Illinois: Let's be clear: Yes, Illinois, is much, much better than last year. BUT they're still not very good. Scheelhaase struggled badly against a poor Cornhuskers defense, and the Illini defense simply was not good enough to slow the UNL offense. Illinois will probably finish 2-6 or 3-5 in Big Ten play, but it would not surprise me all that much if the Purdue game is the only game the Illini win (speaking of, anyone want a 48 cent ticket? http://tinyurl.com/n7ttjdw). Right now, I foresee the Northwestern offense moving the ball at will against the Illini. 90% chance of Northwestern victory.
6. LW (6) Purdue: Mercifully, Purdue did not have to play this week, but they're still really, really bad. The Boilermakers do not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Northwestern: Despite losing to the Buckeyes, Northwestern solidified their place at the top of the Legends Division. The Wildcats' offense finally looked like the powerhouse we knew it could be, behind the return of Venric Mark and a greatly expanded playbook. The Northwestern run defense is a weakness, to be sure, but the 'Cats have the potential to outgun the best of them. The biggest obstacle to Northwestern finishing in this position is their schedule, the most difficult in the division, if not the conference. 
2. LW (2) Nebraska: Whereas the Wildcats have the most difficult schedule in the division, Nebraska has the easiest. They should be the favorite in five or six of their seven remaining games, and, for this reason, I have them at number two. Certainly, the Cornhuskers have some strong points. Abdullah, for example, is a heck of a back. But I have not seen enough to suggest that Nebraska has the defense to win this division. I don't see any way this Husker defense stops the Wildcat offense. I give NU a 75% chance of winning. 
3. LW (4) Michigan: The Wolverines' 42-13 victory over Minnesota is most likely their most impressive victory of the year, but it is by no means a win to hang your hat on. Nonetheless, I thought this game would be a potential upset, and that prediction now looks foolish. I must admit this team may be better than I had been beginning to think. In short, the Wolverines are a team with innumerable tools that are just having a difficult time figuring out how to use them. The Penn State game should be an interesting test. 65% chance of Northwestern victory. 
4. LW (5) Michigan State: 6 weeks in and I have no idea what to make of the Spartans. Their defense is, without a doubt, exceptional, but can their offense be good? And, even if their offense is not good, is the defense good enough that it doesn't matter? These are the questions I do not have answers to yet. Connor Cook certainly seems to be a big step up from the other Spartan quarterbacks, but I still have trouble believing this offense is good enough to compete for the Legends Division lead. Right now, I will say 75% chance of Northwestern victory. 
5.  LW (3) Iowa: I jumped on the "Iowa is good" bandwagon far too early. Injuries to Weisman and Martin-Manley demonstrated just how shallow the Hawkeye offense is, as they put up only 14 points and 23 run yards against the Spartans. Meanwhile, they let a poor MSU offense kill them through the air. Will they be better when their injured players recover? Of course. But an offense built on two players is not a stable one. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (6) Minnesota: Minnesota's season is falling apart before them. They lost badly to Iowa and Michigan, neither of whom I am convinced are great, while their head coach is going into a health-related leave of absence. Meanwhile, starting quarterback Philip Nelson is struggling with an injury. A Gopher victory over Northwestern at this point would be nothing short of shocking. 95% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projection

Despite Northwestern losing their shot at a perfect season, their projected record, based on my probabilities, takes only a small hit to 9.3-2.7. 

OSU @ Northwestern Recap

Man, there's a heck of a lot still going on in my head after that game, and the weekend as a whole. This was a weekend with more spirit than I had ever seen at Northwestern. It was a game against one of the best teams I'd seen the Wildcats play. It was quite possibly the best football I'd ever seen from Northwestern. It was far and away the most electric I've ever seen Ryan Field. Simply put, it was an intense weekend. And we were so, so close to a win. I'm having trouble putting my feelings into words, but I'll give it a shot.
I'll start with the negatives. This is a painful game to "what-if" about. Had we won this game we would not only be being discussed as one of the best teams in the Big Ten, we'd be in the discussion of best in the country, and would be considered a national championship contender. To even consider how close that came to being the case is almost mind-blowing. A win here would have been a program-definer, the kind of game that moves a team from the level of the good teams to the level of the great or even elite teams. One of these weeks, we'll get that win, but unfortunately this was not the time.
Now the positive: We held our own against one of the best teams in the country, and the nation watched. Let's be clear, this game was no fluke. We played very, very nearly at the level of the Buckeyes. We have a terrific team. On top of this, our game was the most watched game in the nation this week. Despite the loss, this was a game that got us a great deal of exposure and respect. The nation is beginning to realize we truly are a good team, and we're here to stay.
Now let me break down this homecoming, beginning with the weekend as a whole, then the game in particular.

Weekend Atmosphere

Mike and Mike: The first taste of this homecoming weekend came Friday when Mike and Mike's morning show broadcast from Deering Field. Full disclosure: I slept through it, but to my amazement, a number of people did not. To see a crowd of people lining up already joining in this ESPN-heavy homecoming at 5:00 AM was pretty a awesome sight, and a great way to start the weekend.
Pep Rally: Friday night was the homecoming pep rally, again on Deering Meadow. This was the most-attended homecoming pep rally Northwestern had held and was filled with some very excited alumni.
College Gameday: Wow, I was blown away here. I knew a number of students would attend, but I underestimated just how many and how early they would arrive. To my delight there was a very rowdy, purple crowd with some fantastic signs. And they did a great job of drowning out the few OSU fans who attended. It cast our university in a great light, and hopefully the huge success will convince ESPN to continue to attend some smaller venues in the future.
Student Section at the game: Ryan Field's student section holds 5000 people, and some students were still turned away. Northwestern has an undergraduate population of just over 8000. That means 60%+ of the student population attended this game. That is unheard of at NU, a place where I became accustomed to students not even knowing whether we were playing a game on a given weekend. On top of this, many of those 5000 students were waiting in line for seats during a severe thunderstorm. And during the game itself, the student section was absolutely rocking. Here's to hoping this becomes the new normal at NU.
Non-student seating: The one negative of the weekend atmosphere. Unfortunately, a large percentage of Ryan Field was filled by OSU fans. To an extent, this is understandable. After all, there are far more OSU alumni in Chicago than there are NU alumni. Still, it's a bit disappointing to see this happen even on our homecoming. On the plus side, however, the Northwestern faithful easily drowned out the Buckeye fans all game. The energy from even the non-student fans was something I had not before seen at Northwestern.

The Game

Trevor Siemian: Overall, Trevor had a very solid game. He completed 13 of 18 attempts for 245 yards and 2 TDs, looking good in passes in every range and even demonstrating some athleticism. I really only have two complaints about his play. First, he held on to the ball far too long, getting sacked five times. That simply cannot happen. Second, Siemian threw a very bad interception. I had been saying all year that Trevor's tendency to throw into coverage would come back to haunt him when facing good secondaries, and this came true. While he only really made one mistake, it was a costly one. Still, despite these complaints, Siemian performed quite well.

Kain Colter: OSU did a good job of defending the option, and, as a result, Colter struggles in the run game, going for only 16 yards on 8 carries. Regardless, he did get into the endzone. He performed well in the passing game, however, both as a quarterback and a receiver. As a quarterback, he primarily threw underneath all game, completing all 12 passes he attempted, but for only 98 yards. He also stayed in at receiver for most plays where Siemian lined up at QB. While he only recorded one catch, it went for a touchdown, and his lining up in the slot seemed to create coverage nightmares for the Buckeyes all game.
Venric Mark: Boy, it's good to have him back. While he still did not look quite 100% to me, he played a lot, and he did it well. Statistically speaking, his game was below last year's standards, running for only 60 yards on 17 carries, but he got those 60 yards in impressive fashion, as he broke tackles along with his usual shiftiness. I believe he will only get better in the run game in coming weeks. He also contributed well in the passing game, catching 4 passes (ironically, that's more than he ever caught in a game when he was a wide receiver). He took those catches for 43 yards, most coming on an extremely impressive 41 yard reception. He only took one kickoff return, but he took it for 38 yards. As he continues to get healthy, he should take on a bigger portion of the return game.
Green and Trumpy: These two saw their roles greatly reduced with the return of Venric, taking a combined 8 carries for 26 yards. I hope we will find a way to better incorporate them into the offense alongside Venric, as they provide a different look and can still be valuable to this offense.
Receivers: As was expected, Northwestern got a lot of receivers involved. OSU had little trouble locking down Northwestern's leading receivers, but the 'Cats simply offered too many looks, and, as a result, the NU quarterbacks had little trouble finding open receivers all game. Furthermore, these receivers did not record a single drop, a major accomplishment given last year's trend.
Jones and Jones: Christian and Tony were the primary objects of focus for the OSU secondary, and the Buckeyes limited their targets. Neither had a bad game, as Christian recorded 2 catches for 34 yards and Tony had 3 for 23. Their primary value in this game, however, was distracting the OSU secondary while other receivers went virtually unnoticed en route to big games.
Rashad Lawrence: As I expected, Lawrence had a breakout game. In fact, he more than doubled his previous single-game best for yardage, recording 8 catches for 149 yards. He looked sure-handed and elusive, looking like he had the talent to be a team's first receiver. Given that he's the 'Cat's third option, or maybe fourth when considering Vitale, this unit should continue to give secondaries fits all year.
Mike Jensen: With Venric back, Jensen may be no higher than Northwestern's 6th receiving threat, but he did not look like it. Jensen had a great game, finding the open holes in the OSU secondary and recording 2 catches for 37 yards. He also made a huge special teams play, blowing up punter Cameron Johnston on a fake punt.
Cameron Dickerson: I hope I'm making my point about how stacked Northwestern's receiving corps is. Dickerson, NU's 5th or 6th wide receiver option, and 7th or 8th receiving option overall, got involved in this game, getting free for a big touchdown catch.
Dan Vitale: Vitale had another solid game, catching 4 balls for 36 yards, including one in which he hurdled a defender for a first down. He also took his first career carry, but took it for only 2 yards.
The Defensive Line: I think it's safe to say our defensive line was the primary reason we lost this game. There were bright points, to be fair. Tyler Scott continues to impress, particularly in a play in which he got to Braxton Miller and forced, and recovered, a fumble. Ifeadi Odenigbo, too, has been successfully pressuring the quarterback, and was responsible for forcing Miller into a bad pass that went for an interception. However, there were significant problems with this line. Most notably, in Sean McEvilly's absence, the defensive tackles are struggling mightily, and the 'Cats have failed to get pressure up the middle. This resulted in Miller having far too long in the pocket, as well as Carlos Hyde finding holes up the middle too easily.
Run Defense: I touched on this with the defensive line, but the 'Cats are having major problems against the run, as Carlos Hyde ran for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns. I still think Northwestern has a great linebacker crew, but with the major push opponent offensive lines are being allowed, they're being thrown off their game. The Wildcats need to make a change, but, at this point, it's unclear what that should be. Loading the box leaves Northwestern's secondary understaffed, which is a problem given the Northwestern corners' inexperience.
Pass Defense: The secondary actually looked shockingly good in this game. Braxton Miller completed only 15 of 26 passes for 203 yards, while throwing an interception. This Northwestern secondary also held a team that was second in the nation in passing touchdowns to not a single score through the air. Dwight White and Matt Harris split time at corner and both did an admirable job. The future for this 'Cats secondary may be much brighter than I had feared.
Jeff Budzien: Back to being money with a 3-3 day.
Redzone Offense: Alongside defensive line play, this was the biggest reason NU failed to win this game. The 'Cats scored touchdowns on only 3 of their 6 redzone trips. The reason for this is two-fold. First, the option game was not working. Typically, Northwestern likes to use Colter in red zone situations, with the option. In these scenarios, Colter can either punch it in himself or pitch it out to a back. The Buckeye defense kept either option from being successful in this game. Second, with Colter's bread and butter taken away, Fitz and McCall turned to Siemian in the redzone. Siemian is most successful with the secondary spread deep, an option that is not available on a sub-20 yard field. The coaches need to work out a better redzone strategy. Personally, I'd like to see Vitale be a bigger part of the passing game near the goal line.
Officiating: The elephant in the room was the questionable spot on Colter's QB sneak. Initially, I thought Colter got it, and it seems the world agreed. However, I have now viewed the play an unhealthy number of times, and I am about 60% sure the right call was made. Kain finished with the ball slightly behind Ian Park, who was, at most, just beyond the marker. Besides, the referee who made the call had a substantially better view than did any camera. What bothers me more was Carlos Hyde's run being reviewed and called a touchdown. There was certainly not incontrovertible proof the ball crossed the plane. The Buckeyes most likely would have punched it in anyway, but, still, that's frustrating.

Bottom Line

Let me put this game into context. Northwestern's 2008 team was one of Northwestern's better teams in recent history. They lost to an OSU team not much better than this one 45-10. And it is no fluke this game was so close. This is a very good Northwestern team with the potential to still have a fantastic year. Sure there are some kinks to works out, but we have enough upside to compete with every other team we are left to face. In fact, I believe we are better than every team remaining on our schedule. However, our next toughest game is only three days away. Time to rebound and kick off the win streak that will lead us to a 13-1 season. 

OSU @ Northwestern Preview: A Breakdown of the Buckeyes

Who is Ohio State? 

This one probably goes without saying. The Ohio State University (Their official name. I prefer An Ohio State University) is a state university located in Columbus, Ohio, with an undergraduate population of around 43,000 (i.e. about 5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 52nd among national universities. 

How Did They Do Last Year?

Very well. The Buckeyes went 12-0, despite playing several very close games to inferior teams. They did not play in a bowl due to probation.

How About This Year?

A solid 5-0, including an impressive win against Wisconsin last week. 

Recent History Against Northwestern

The last time the two teams played was 2008, a 45-10 drubbing that still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. 2007 was even worse (58-7), as was 2006 (54-10). 2005 was 48-7. Northwestern's most recent victory came in 2004, a 33-27 win.

Coaching

Urban Meyer is serving his second year as OSU's head coach, after previously coaching at Florida, where he won two national championships. He is yet to lose at Ohio State. Tom Herman is on his second year as the Buckeyes' offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He was previously at Iowa State. Everett Withers and Luke Fickell are spending their second years as co-defensive coordinators. 

Ohio State Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Ohio State's pass offense has been led by quarterback Braxton Miller, as well backup Kenny Guiton while Miller was out with an injury. Miller will start this game, however. The Buckeye passing game has been a bit of a conundrum, as the team has not looked notably impressive when focusing on yards, at only 214 per game (88th nationally). Despite this, they are fifteenth best in the country in completion percentage, at 68.8% and second best in TDs, with 19. The Buckeyes have multiple talented receivers, but the targets will most heavily be towards junior Devin Smith and senior Corey Brown, each of whom already have five touchdown catches this year. Also look for the OSU running backs to get involved in the receiving game. Fortunately, Northwestern's linebackers are good at pass coverage, so the backs don't concern me too much. That being said, I am very concerned about the Wildcats' ability to cover all the OSU receiver options. Dwight White, or Harris if he gets the start, will need to step up big. Advantage: OSU.

Ohio State Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

I would argue OSU's biggest run threat is none other than the quarterback, Braxton Miller. Miller has already carried the ball 40 times in his effectively two games played, and he has done it successfully, putting up 165 yards. The Buckeyes are not lacking for other running options, however. Carlos Hyde is back from suspension and is a huge threat. Jordan Hall already has 427 yards and freshman Ezekiel Elliot is putting up 9.5 yards per carry. There is a ton of depth here and, despite Northwestern having a solid run defense, it is concerning. All in all, their 287 yards per game is good for 12th in the country and their 6.27 yards per carry is frightening.  Advantage: OSU

Ohio State Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Buckeye run defense has been very solid, allowing a measly 84.6 yards per game. That being said, I think this Northwestern offense is up to the challenge. Teyvon Green, Mike Trumpy, and Kain Colter have performed admirably, leading the 'Cats to 250 yards per game on the ground. But adding Venric Mark back into the mix gives the 'Cats an almost indescribable boost. Venric opens up the spread option, improving Colter in the process, while Green and Trumpy still provide a power thread. A Mark-led run offense would scare any defense in the country. Advantage: Northwestern

Ohio State Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

What if I were to tell you that Ohio State' pass defense will be the worst the 'Cats have faced yet this year? It may not strictly be true, but there is a case to be made for that position, and I can safely argue that the Buckeye's pass defense is a big step down from at least Western Michigan's. OSU's secondary looked very vulnerable last week, particularly to Jared Abbrederis, and I have a hunch they will have trouble finding an answer for the Wildcats' wealth of receivers. They will struggle to cover both Joneses, and I suspect Rashad Lawrence will return to relevance this week. Furthermore, starting safety Christian Bryant is out for the season with an ankle injury. While the Buckeye's have tremendous depth at the position, anyone they put on the field will be a step down. I like the Wildcats in this matchup. Advantage: Northwestern.

Ohio State Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Northwestern's special teams have not lived up to expectations. For one thing, Jeff Budzien has already missed twice as many field goals as he did last year. On the other side of the ball, it is hard to get a read on OSU kicker Drew Basil, as he has taken only three field goals on the year, but made all of them. In terms of punting, while Brandon Williams has been hit-or-miss, Northwestern's punt coverage has been quite good, limiting teams to less than 3 yards per return. OSU has been comparable, limiting teams to exactly 3 yards per return. Additionally, there is also only about a yard difference in yards per punt, in OSU's favor. OSU furthermore has a slim lead in average kick return: 23.9 to 22.6. The biggest gap is in punt returns. The Buckeyes' 13.83 blows NU's 6.0 (on only one return) out of the water. The question is: Will Venric handle punt returns? If he does, OSU has no advantage in the punt game. In fact, I would argue NU has an advantage, perhaps even a large one. If he does not, the battle goes to the Buckeyes. Advantage: Northwestern if Venric handles returns, OSU if he does not

Bottom Line

In this matchup, the offenses beat the defenses. I foresee both offenses moving the ball with relative ease. In the end, I believe Northwestern will keep it extremely close, due in part to an advantage in turnovers, but Northwestern loses a close one in heartbreaking fashion, with most of the blame going to offensive and defensive line play. Prediction: OSU 34 - NU 31.  
Here's to hoping I'm wrong. 

Week 5 Big Ten Breakdown

This is my week 5 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: There really is no debate here. The Buckeyes took care of business against Wisconsin, their top rival for the #1 Leaders Division spot. Braxton Miller quieted the people saying Guiton should maintain the starting position, as he had an excellent 4 TD game. As good as the Buckeyes looked, however, they looked susceptible to the passing game, as Jared Abbrederis had an insane receiving game. A big game from Northwestern's Joneses could cause some harm to OSU. I'm still giving the 'Cats only a 35% chance of victory. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Despite Wisconsin having lost two games already, they are still easily the #2 team in this division. Jared Abbrederis absolutely terrifies me in their matchup with NU. This Wisconsin team is a team that's just all-around solid. 50% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (3) Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
4. LW (4) Illinois: The Illini took care of business against a poor Miami (OH) team. The RedHawks managed fewer than 100 yards through the air, while the Illini put up over 600 yards of total offense. It was an impressive victory, but it was against a very bad team, so I'm not taking too much from it. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
5. LW (5) Indiana: The Hoosiers had a bye this week. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
6. LW (6) Purdue: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Purdue actually outgained Northern Illinois this week, and yet got steamrolled due to the Boilermakers turning the ball over 5 times. There is a very real chance Purdue will go winless in Big Ten play. Don't expect them to move out of this #6 spot for the rest of the year. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Northwestern: Northwestern had a bye this week, and no one else did well enough to supplant them. Expect the 'Cats to only get better from here as top offensive weapon Venric Mark returns from injury. 
2. LW (3) Nebraska: Nebraska did not play this week, but I still move them up to #2. This is for two reasons: First, I am thinking less and less of Michigan every week, and second, Nebraska has a very favorable schedule. Looking at this schedule, the worst I can see Nebraska doing this year is 8-4. That being said, while I feel they will finish at #2, I do not think they're the second best team in the division. I give NU a 70% chance of winning. 
3. LW (4) Iowa: The Hawkeyes continue to exceed expectations, as they put a beatdown on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They did this primarily through their defense, holding the Gophers to only 165 yards. On offense, Weisman continued to put on his best bulldozer imitation, and Rudock was, for the most part, impressively poised. The offense looks beatable, but is much better than assumed before the season started. I believe the game in Iowa City will be the toughest Legends Division matchup for Northwestern, but I still give the 'Cats a 60% chance of victory. 
4. LW (2) Michigan: I'm dropping the Wolverines from 2nd to 4th, despite them not playing this week. I feel this requires some explanation. Quite simply, I've become convinced my placing the Wolverines as high as I had been was due to nothing but the framing effect. I have seen nothing to demonstrate the Wolverines are a good team, other than their preseason expectations. In fact, I've seen a lot to indicate they are a bad team. They still have enough talent to perhaps start looking like a much better team, and they are fortunate in that their toughest matchups are at the end of the year, but for right now, this is simply not a good team. 75% chance of Northwestern victory. 
5.  LW (6) Michigan State: Michigan State did not play this week. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (5) Minnesota: Before their last game, many people were starting to think favorably of the Golden Gophers. Not anymore. Minnesota's offense looked utterly inept against the Hawkeyes. Granted, quarterback Philip Nelson was returning from an injury and probably will improve, but his improvement will not do enough to make this a good team. 85% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projections

Northwestern's likelihood of going undefeated takes a tiny drop to 3.00%. Still:

Our projected record remains at 9.35-2.65, leaving us with a most likely record of 9-3. 

Week 4 Big Ten Breakdown

This is my week 4 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: It's getting very difficult to say whether OSU is better off with Braxton Miller or Kenny Guiton, as Guiton threw a ridiculous 6 TDs, albeit against a very bad Florida A&M. Regardless, this is a very good team with either QB. On defense as well, they were lights-out against the Rattlers, holding them to two first downs the entire game. This is a team without many obvious weaknesses, and it will be a tough game for the 'Cats. Even with all the x-factors in Northwestern's favor, I'm still giving the 'Cats only a 35% chance of victory. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Wisconsin faced another weak opponent this week, but at least it was an in-conference one, in Purdue. While quarterback Joel Stave had a relatively unimpressive game, the Badgers continued to do what they do best: run the ball. Both Melvin Gordon and James White exceeded 140 yards, while Corey Clement added 83 of his own. On top of this, they had another lock-down game defensively, and they sit at 6th nationally in total defense. This team does scare me, but they are far from unbeatable. If the 'Cats can muster the run defense I know they're capable of and can run a solid, well-balanced offense, they have a good chance to win. 50% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (4) Penn State: In a massive step down to number 3, we find Penn State. The Nittany Lions steam rolled Kent State en route to a 34-0 victory. The defense was solid. The 0 points and 190 yards allowed are testament to that. And the run game was impressive as well, as Akeel Lynch ran for 123 and Zach Zwinak got into the endzone three times. However, Christian Hackenberg struggled, completing only 13 of 35 passes against a team that gave up over 350 pass yards to Bowling Green. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
4. LW (5) Illinois: The Illini had a bye this week, so they move up due to Indiana's failings, not their own success. I still believe the Wildcats have an 85% chance of victory. 
5. LW (3) Indiana: Before this week, the Hoosiers had promise, but yet again, Indiana pulled an Indiana. The Hoosiers continued to look good through the air in terms of yardage, throwing for 377 yards, but Nate Sudfeld threw three interceptions. On top of this, the Hoosiers got torched through the air and on the ground, allowing Mizzou 623 total yards. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
6. LW (6) Purdue: Purdue is not very good. As already mentioned, they got steam rolled by the Badgers, particularly on the ground. But their offense was not any better. Rob Henry completed only half his passes for 135 yards, while the run game picked up only 45. Ugly. Purdue does not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Northwestern: Northwestern continues to benefit from what is, overall, a very weak Legends Divison. The Wildcat's win against Maine was by no means a thing of beauty, but it never really felt in doubt. As a bonus, all signs are pointing to Venric Mark returning to the field against the Buckeyes. On top of the obvious benefit of having their best player on the field, the 'Cats playbook should open up significantly. Colter plus Mark is a scary combo for any defense. 
2. LW (2) Michigan: Two weeks in a row, both Northwestern and Michigan have played sub-par games against inferior programs, but these scenarios do not feel similar. Northwestern fans are nervous simply because the 'Cats did not win by a large enough margin in either game. I would contend this is foolish. Michigan fans, on the other hand, are nervous with good reason, as their games against both Akron and UConn, two bad teams, both came down to the bitter end. On top of this, there simply was not much to like from this Wolverines team. Even Devin Gardner, the one player who I thought could almost single-handedly lead this offense, looked bad against the Huskies. I'm beginning to wonder if this is even a good team, and questioning my choice to have them at number 2. Regardless, they have enough talent and a high enough ceiling to stay at #2 for now. Regardless, I'm growing increasingly confident in a Wildcat victory. 65% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (3) Nebraska: Not a lot to gather from Nebraska this week as they took care of business, beating FCS South Dakota St. 59-20. The Huskers put up a huge amount of offense, but their 465 yards allowed does little to quiet the criticisms of their defense. As such, this week did little to change my opinion of the Huskers.  Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
4. LW (5) Iowa: The Hawkeyes had easily the most impressive game in the Legends Division, doing something NU could not manage: steamrolling Western Michigan. Iowa destroyed the Broncos in every facet of the game, throwing well, passing well, and returning punts and interceptions for touchdowns. I wonder about the overall talent level of this team, and don't think they have a terribly high ceiling, but right now they look like a very solid, well-coached team. I'm worried this game is a major trap game candidate. I have to drop the Wildcats to a 70% chance of victory. 
5.  LW (6) Minnesota: The Minnesota running game continued to look highly impressive against San Jose St., but they're essentially missing the entirety of their passing game with Philip Nelson sidelined due to injury, and with his status into the next few weeks uncertain, this is a big blow. The Gophers get their first real test against Iowa this week, and it should be a significant game to learn about both teams. As of right now, I don't see much to change my opinion about this game, so still: 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (4) Michigan State: The Spartans are a very interesting team. One of the best defenses and one of the worst offenses nationally. The old adage says defense wins championships, but not if this is the type of offensive production you're getting. Many fans were praising Connor Cook as the quarterback of the future for MSU, but he looked lost and even got pulled for Andrew Maxwell, who was terrible, in relief. Honestly, I don't care how good this defense is, with this kind of quarterback play, they're going to struggle badly in the Big Ten. 80% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projections

Northwestern's likelihood of going undefeated gets a slight raise this week, albeit only to 3.03%. Still, we get to see our old friend Lloyd, quite possibly for the last time.

While being undefeated would certainly be nice, my model now has us at 9.35-2.65, slightly up from last week, but still leaving us with a most likely record of 9-3.