Analysis: NU @ Vandy

If I were to say one thing about this game, it would be this: the 'Cats looked like the same old 'Cats. By this I mean they played at more or less exactly the level of their opponent. The fact is, we should have won this game by a lot more, but there was some good to be found. Let's break it down.
Persa: Overall, he was very good. He completed 19 of 21 passes for 222 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also carried the ball 17 times for 82 yards, and if you exclude his 3 sacks, he was even better. He threw the ball accurately, and he showed a good ability to work outside of the pocket. However, I have one complaint: He generally looked very uncomfortable within the pocket. Because of this fact, the 'Cats rarely used a conventional pocket in the second half, instead opting for moving pockets or bootlegs. It is fairly clear Persa will be a different type of quarterback than Kafka, running more option plays and spending far less time in the pocket.
The Running Backs: No improvement from last year. None. If anything, it was a regression; although I have trouble believing that's possible. Arby was awful, just mind-numbingly awful. I still have hope for him this year, but this kind of performance won't even come close to cutting it. He tended to try to make too much happen. If he could not find a hole, he attempted to reverse field, but, consequently, he lost yards. To his credit, I saw one play that displayed his potential. He made a couple moves to pull a six yard run out of seemingly nowhere, but that kind of play needs to be the norm. Schmidt was ok, but far from spectacular, carrying the ball 13 times for 44 yards. He never did anything great, but he at least consistently got positive yards. Simmons only got 3 carries for 14 yards, so he had too small a sample size to really analyze.
Ebert: Jeremy Ebert was the go-to receiver, and he was awesome. He made 5 catches for 99 yards, and a couple of those catches were not easy. On top of that he showed very good route running ability. He also had a 12 yard rush on a reverse. No complaints at all with his performance.
The Defense: Remember when I said that teams wouldn't be able to run against NU? Apparently I was very, very wrong. Vandy got 192 yards on the ground, 5.1 yards per play. They are not a bad running team, but 192 yards is unacceptable. Our defensive line and linebackers were simply dominated by their offensive line. However, even more discouraging is the fact that we allowed 240 passing yards. Vandy only managed 146.3 yrds/game last year. Our defense simply must improve.
Brandon Williams: In terms of punting, he appears to be a big step up from Demos, averaging 42.4 yards per punt, and  showing at least some ability to place the ball in the red zone effectively. He even boomed a 59 yarder. However, he failed in his holding role, fumbling the snap on a crucial PAT.
The Crowd: This may seem like an odd point of analysis, but I needed to make note of the extensive Northwestern support at the game. 3 sections of the stadium were more purple than gold, and these masses of purple did an exceptional job of cheering on their team. As one Vandy fan said about some of the Northwestern faithful, "They're damn vocal." Good job guys, but can you all please show up for home games?
The Stadium: Seriously Vandy, can't you keep your stuff working? The instant replay system broke in the first quarter, thus making official reviews impossible. Then later, the air horn they sound after scores and turnovers  would not turn off for several minutes. One of the less pleasant sounds I've ever had to endure.

The Personal Foul at the End of the Game: This was a serious point of contention. During Northwestern's final drive, Persa scrambled on third down and was stopped short of a first down. A Vandy player, however, was called for a personal foul helmet to helmet, giving the 'Cats the first down and the ability to down the ball to run down the clock. Vandy fans thought this was a bad call and were, to say the least, furious. However, after watching the replay 20-30 times, I believe the correct call was made. You can view the following screenshot and this video to decide for yourself.

Vanderbilt Preview

I am currently spending the night just outside of St. Louis before heading over to Nashville tomorrow for Northwestern's opening game! This game has a great deal of personal importance for me because, during my college application process, I could not decide between Northwestern and Vanderbilt, before deciding on NU at the last possible moment. A win here would further solidify my decision as the correct one. I would like to be able to provide a detailed preview of the game, but, the fact is, I don't know enough about Vandy's team to do so. Here's what I do know:

• Vandy is the NU of the SEC--a small, private institution in a conference full of large, state schools. Like us, they generally have to get by with players who are less-recruited than those of their competition.
• Vandy is typically near the bottom of their conference, and last year was no exception, as they went 2-10.  They won a bowl in '08, however, so they are capable of having a good season. 
• They have a new coach. Bobby Johnson retired from the position unexpectedly during the offseason. He was replaced by former offensive line coach Robbie Caldwell.  

My prediction: NU by 10

The Special Teams

Stephan J. Carrera

Anyone who followed NU football last year knows that the special teams basically sucked. Luckily, we are looking substantially better this year.
Punting: Stefan Demos had punting duties last year and was absolutely dreadful. He averaged a pitiful 35.0 yrds/punt, worst amongst qualifying punters. Much of the problem was that Demos was responsible for everything: punting, place kicking, and kickoff starting. Fortunately, Demos no longer has punting duties. The redshirt freshman Brandon Williams instead gets the job. He averaged 41.9 yrds/punt in high school. We'll see how that carries over.
Kicking: Demos had this job, as well, and did much better in this position. He had a very good year, with the exception of the Outback Bowl and the game against Illinois, making a pretty solid 72% of his kicks. He will be returning as kicker this year and is being named a Lou Groza Award candidate by some.
Kickoff Starting: Demos had this job as well, and I had no problem with his performance. He will hold the starting position again this year.
Long Snapper: This job will go to last year's starter, senior John Henry Pace, or redshirt freshman Pat hickey.
Holder: The holder on placekicks will be punter Brandon Williams.
Punt Return: Northwestern was pretty lousy on punt returns last year. Andrew Brewer and Brendan Smith usually got the job. Neither was very good, and I was often happy if they just managed to catch the ball. They averaged 6.3 yards per return, 93rd in the country. This year, the job will go to either Hunter Bates or true freshman Venric Mark. My vote is for Mark. The guy is a tiny (5'8) speedster (4.4 40-meter dash!) who seems proficient at making guys miss. From what I have seen of him, he looks a bit like a poor man's Percy Harvin. That is never a bad comparison, in less you are referring to injury resistance. It will no doubt be a pretty big adjustment to return punts in the Big 10, but I'm still excited. I have never seen anyone run like that in the purple and white.
Kick Return: We were pretty awful at this, too. Again, I often had no idea if our guys would even manage to catch the ball. Stephen Simmons got the most returns, and averaged an admittedly good 25.3 yards per return (39th best in the country). Everyone else failed in the role though. As a team, we averaged 20.6 yards per return (62nd). Simmons, thankfully is listed as the starter for this year, with Scott Concannon behind him. Both these people should be pretty good, but I would like to see Mark get an opportunity, as well.

The Defensive Secondary

Chris O'Meara- AP

In my linebacker analysis I said I didn't expect teams to have much success running the ball against Northwestern. The obvious implication is that teams will be passing a lot against Northwestern, and I fear that may not be a great thing. Both the cornerback and safety position could take a big step back this year.
At the cornerback position, we lose Sherrick McManis, who, in my opinion, was the best player on the team last year. Our other corner was Jordan Mabin, who fortunately is returning. Unfortunately, however, he failed to impress in pass defense last year. While he got an impressive number of tackles, he failed to defend many passes that went his way, with the notable exception of the interception that wrapped up the game against Wisconsin. The other corner this year will be Justan Vaughn, a senior. He has some experience starting but has suffered several injuries throughout his career. Jeravin Matthews, a junior former running back will be one backup. The other will be Demetrius Dugar, a sophomore who got one start last year replacing an injured McManis. Overall, this position does not look very good. These guys, particularly Mabin, really have to step up if we don't want our opponents to throw all over the place against us.
At safety, we lose last years' starters Brad Phillips and Brendan Smith. Nonetheless, I'm less concerned about this position than the corners. Brian Peters, a junior, will be one of this year's starters, and he will be just fine. He actually started 5 games last year subbing for an injured Smith. Despite being a backup on the depth chart he managed to be fifth on the team in tackles and second in interceptions (67 and 3 respectively). If you have any questions about his ability, just look at the picture at the top of this post. Yes, he made the grab, and, for the record, he had a cast on the other hand. The other safety will be the sophomore Jared Carpenter. He played a bit last year, but not enough for me to formulate much of an analysis. Hunter Bates, the sophomore special teams specialist, is one backup, and Mike Bolden, who is strangely listed as a corner on his bio, is listed as the other backup. David Arnold, the converted linebacker, is not on the depth chart due to injury. If he returns, do not be surprised to see him start. While this unit may not be an improvement from last year, it should not be terrible. I would however be more comfortable if Arnold could return.

The Linebackers

Getty Images

This unit will likely be the best for Northwestern this year, and it should have the best depth. Returning at one outside linebacker position will be the outstanding senior Quentin Davie. He racked up 90 tackles last year, 11.5 for loss, and is being named on most All Big 10, and even some All-American, watch lists. The middle linebacker position will be filled by Nate Williams. He is entering his senior year after having a very solid year last year, averaging 7.17 tackles per game last year, best on the team (he played one fewer game than Davie). The other outside linebacker position will be filled by Bryce McNaul. He is a junior who saw only moderate playing time due to injury last year but was named the team's most improved player coming out of spring. I am also pleased with the second-team linebackers. Backing up Davie will be Ben Johnson. He is a junior who started seven games last year, so expect him to see decent playing time. David Nwabuisi, a sophomore, will be returning as Williams's backup. The redshirt freshman Damien Proby will be backing up McNaul. Overall, expect great things from this unit. I don't expect much success running the ball for NU's opponents.

2-Deep Depth Chart Released!

It appears the starting lineups have been finalized. So let's take a look to see if my offensive predictions were right.
QB: No surprises here. Persa, followed by Watkins.
RB: I'm a bit disappointed. The depth chart is listed as Fields or Schmidt or Simmons. I was hoping to see a starter named by now. Perhaps we will be started with running-back-by committee again, but I certainly hope not.
WR: I still cannot say who will fill which role, but the starters are Ebert, Stewart, and Demetrius Fields. Their backups will be Moulton, and two people I didn't mention previously: Charles Brown and Venric Mark. Charles Brown is a junior slot receiver, and Mark is a tiny true freshman speedster who I am very excited about. Much more about him if I ever get a special teams post up.
SB: Dunsmore is listed as starter with Rooks as the backup. This doesn't mean a whole lot as Nagel will see playing time, just filling a different role.
OL: I was right on the tackle positions and center. Left guard will be Mulroe. Right Guard will be Bartels. The backups, from left to right, will be: Brian Smith, Evan Luxenburg, Colin Armstrong, Keegan Grant, and Neal Deiters.

Edit: I suppose I could have just made it easy for you all and myself by providing a link.

The Defensive Line

AP Photo/ Nam Y. Huh

Many Northwestern fans' first thought when thinking about the defensive line is probably, "Oh crap! We lost Wootton! We're freaking screwed!" Well, if this is you, you are somewhat justified in your opinion. It is easy to make a case for a healthy Wootton as the greatest player in Northwestern history. However, the fact is Wootton was anything but healthy last year. He did win us the Iowa game, (sorry, Stanzi) but, overall, he was merely a shadow of his former self. He only managed half the tackles he got in 2008 (21 to 42) and only 4 sacks compared to 10.  That being said, it was still nice to have him on the line, as he scared the other team, and he frequently was double teamed, meaning fewer blockers left for the other members of the line. Vince Browne played the other defensive end position as a sophomore. He did a very good job racking up 39 tackles, 8 for loss, and 5 sacks. Fortunately, he is returning next year. Kevin Watt, the junior, figures to fill Wootton's shoes, and has experience doing so, as he filled in for Wootton when he was unable to play due to injury. He did a decent job with 10 tackles and 2 sacks. The sophomore Quentin Williams also figures to see playing time. He managed 14 tackles and an interception last year, so he knows how to play the position. All things considered, the defensive end position looks pretty good, but I have trouble calling it an improvement simply because losing Wootton is a blow. 

One starting defensive tackle last year was the junior Corbin Bryant. He did a good job in the position with 30 tackles, and he will be returning for the role this season. The other defensive tackle position was just a mess, mostly due to injuries. So many people played it that I don't even know who to call a starter.. For this year, however, the starter will be Jack DiNardo, a junior. He saw some playing time last year but was badly slowed by injury. Overall I'm happy with how the DTs look, especially when compared to last year. They were probably the team's worst position last year, but simply having someone, anyone healthy next to Bryant should be a big improvement.