A Week One Look at the Big Ten

After only one week, it can be pretty challenging to get much of a read on teams. After the first few weeks, playbooks open up, depth charts change, adjustments are made, etc. But, what the hay, let's go ahead and judge them anyways. I'm going to try to break down every Big Ten team based on their week one performances and rank them by where I currently feel they will finish in the division, as well as, for the teams we play, offering my take on our likelihood of victory.

Leaders Division

1. Ohio State: Let me start by saying that Ohio State did not look terribly impressive in their opener. Sure, Braxton Miller completed 68% of his passes and threw 2 TDs, but he did so while only going for 178 yards and throwing an interception. And, sure, they tacked on 261 rush yards and won 40-20, but they did all this against lowly Buffalo, who went 4-8 in the MAC last year. The fact is, Ohio State looks very beatable. They simply have too great of talent and coaching for me to rank them any lower than #1, but I have to say, NU has a decent chance against them. I'm not going to go as far as to predict a 'Cats victory, but the x-factors (homecoming, night game, incredible buzz) will certainly make this interesting. I give the 'Cats about a 40% chance of victory. Also, keep an eye on September 14, when OSU plays Cal. This should be a good first look at how NU and OSU compare.
2. Wisconsin: Wisconsin was playing lowly UMASS, a 1-11 MAC team a year ago, so it is tough to get much of a read on the Badgers, but they beat up on the Minutemen about as anyone would have expected. The Badgers put up nearly 600 yards, including a staggering 393 rush yards, with three players breaking the 100 yard mark. They were perfectly capable of tacking on the big play as well, as Jared Abbrederis picked up 122 receiving yards and 2 TDs on only 2 catches. The Wisconsin defense also limited UMASS to a measly 212 total yards. Right now, there is not a big gap between Ohio State and Wisconsin at the top of this division. These two teams match up on September 28--definitely a game to keep an eye on. As for how Northwestern matches up with the Badgers, right now I'm counting my lucky stars that the 'Cats have an excellent rush defense. I like Northwestern in this match-up due to that fact, but not by much. 55% win chance for the Wildcats.
3. Indiana: Indiana played FCS Indiana St. so this is another case where it's difficult to get a read on a team, but there was a lot to like for the Hoosiers (73 points scored) and a lot not to like (35 points allowed). Given that Indiana beat Indiana St. by only a touchdown last year, there is some reason to believe these Hoosiers are better than last year. Indiana got a good rushing performance out of Tevin Coleman, but their quarterback situation is unclear, as three players saw substantial time. You have to figure this is a situation the Hoosiers will want to figure out sooner rather than later. On the other side of the ball, Indiana looked very beatable, especially on the ground. Unfortunately, the 'Cats do not get a chance to see Indiana this year. 
4. Penn State: In a few weeks, I may regret not ranking Penn State above Indiana, but, for now, 4th is where they're sitting. Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenburg got the start against Syracuse and looked good, but not great, going 22/31 for 278 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. The running game was far more inept, as starting running back Zach Zwinak picked up only 61 yards on 24 carries, while the rest of the team went for a combined -4 yards. When the Orange had the ball, Penn St. looked far more solid, holding Drew Allen to only only 16 completions on 37 attempts. The Syracuse run game never got going either, as the Orange picked up only 71 yards. The Nittany Lions do not face Northwestern this year. 
5. Purdue: Purdue is lucky Illinois is in this division because, boy, did they look bad, getting embarrassed 42-7 by Cincinnati. Rob Henry went only 18-35 while throwing 2 picks and no TDs, and they didn't have much success on the ground either. Their leading rusher, Dalyn Dawkins, picked up only 26 yards on 4 carries. This is not a good team. Unfortunately Northwestern does not get a chance to play them. 
6. Illinois: Well, Illinois was Illinois, barely squeaking by the Southern Illinois Salukis. Scheelhaase had a good day through the air, throwing for 416 yards, but no matter how many good things I say about the Illini, they still only beat the Salukis by 8. This is a really bad team. Northwestern plays them in our final game of the year, and I am very optimistic about our chances. 97% likelihood of victory for Northwestern.

Legends Division

1. Michigian: Michigan was one team that actually looked very good this weekend, as they blew out Central Michigan, who played in a bowl last year, 59-9. Despite Devin Gardner throwing two interceptions, the Wolverine offense looked good. Fitzgerald Toussaint successfully returned from an injury, picking up 57 yards on 14 carries. Derrick Green also looked like a legitimate option at running back, picking up 58 yards on 11 carries. Devin Gardner also appeared to be a threat in the running game, running for 52 yards. Furthermore, the Michigan defense was impressive, allowing only 210 yards. Michigan and Northwestern match up on November 16th, and it should be a heck of a game. I like us in this game due only to the fact that we have home field advantage 52% chance of a Northwestern victory. 
2. Northwestern: I put Northwestern at a very close 2nd in the legends division. Our victory was probably the most impressive, in terms of opponent and circumstances, of any Big Ten team's this week. Partially for this reason, we were named ESPN's Big Ten team of the week. For my full impressions of our week 1 game, read my Northwestern @ Cal recap. 
3. Nebraska: Before the season, I had Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska in a close, three-way race for the Legends lead. However, after seeing them play, my opinion of the Huskers took a big hit. The fact is, Nebraska's defense is lousy. They allowed 602 yards of total offense to a Wyoming team that finished only 72nd in that category nationally last year. The Nebraska offense, on the other hand, was impressive. While Taylor Martinez is no longer an elite passer, he has improved and threw three 3 TDs. On top of this, Ameer Abdullah, Imani Cross, and Martinez add up to be a lethal running trio. When all was said and done however, Nebraska beat a mediocre-to-bad Wyoming team by only a field goal. Nebraska has the potential to be a good, maybe even great, team, but they are far from there yet, due to a pitiful defense. Their biggest advantage this season is an extremely easy conference schedule, but I don't think that will be enough to contend for the division win. Northwestern plays UNL on November 2nd, and if there's any good team we match up better against than Nebraska, I'm not sure who it is. Despite the fact that we get them in Lincoln, I'm going to be bold and say Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
4. Minnesota: Bizarre game for the Gophers, as the scoreboard and the box score tell two very different stories. UNLV outgained Minneosta 419-320, yet the Gophers won a decisive 51-23 victory. The Gophers looked lost through the air as Philip Nelson completed only 10-22 for 99 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Nelson looked better on the ground, however, running 12 times for 83 yards and 2 TDs. David Cobb added 69 yards on 6 carries. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota did not allow big plays through the air, allowing only 226 yards and 2 TDs on 50 pass attempts while picking off 2. They got scorched on the ground however, as Shaquille Murray-Lawrence put up 108 yards on only 4 carries. Ultimately, Minnesota won this game primarily due to their taking advantage of their two interceptions. Minnesota plays the 'Cats on October 19th, and I really like Northwestern's chances. 80% likelihood of victory for the 'Cats. 
5. Iowa: Iowa lost to Northern Illinois this week, but, let's be clear: Northern Illinois is not a bad team. They were, in fact, a BCS bowl team last year. While the Huskies likely will not play at that level again this year, a loss to them is nothing to scoff at. I think Iowa is a better team than Minnesota, but I have them 5th due to a more difficult schedule. Sophomore Jake Ruddock saw his first ever game action in his start for the Hawkeyes and performed admirably. Despite his two interceptions, he looked poised and is a viable starter option for the Hawks. Mark Weisman also appears to be a perfectly serviceable starting running back, going for 100 yards on 20 carries. On the other side of the ball, Jordan Lynch essentially was the offense for the Huskies by himself, so it's tough to get a read on the Hawkeye defense so far. Iowa may be a tough team to beat, but I like the Wildcats against them, especially with the Fitz-factor. Northwestern with a 70% chance of victory.  
6. Michigan State: What to make of Michigan State... They're defense certainly looked good against Western Michigan, holding the Broncos to only 204 total yards and 11 yards on the ground. They also proved to be ball hawks, picking off three passes and recovering a fumble. But the MSU offense was straight-up bad. Andrew Maxwell was just terrible, going only 11/21 and 74 yards. Connor Cook was even worse going 6/16 for 42 yards. They had better luck on the ground as Jeremy Langford ran for 94 yards on 20 carries, but he's no Le'Veon Bell. It's very likely that MSU will improve, but based only on what I've seen so far from them, this is a very easy win for the 'Cats, so I will say 85% chance of victory for Northwestern.

As for Northwestern's non-conference games, I give us a 90% chance to beat Syracuse, a 95% chance to beat Western Michigan, and a 99% chance to beat Maine. For those of you scoring at home, that leaves Northwestern with a 3.13% chance of going undefeated in the regular season! 

My shoddy mathematical model projects us 9.3-2.7, leaving us with a most likely regular season record of 9-3.