Week 4 Big Ten Breakdown

This is my week 4 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: It's getting very difficult to say whether OSU is better off with Braxton Miller or Kenny Guiton, as Guiton threw a ridiculous 6 TDs, albeit against a very bad Florida A&M. Regardless, this is a very good team with either QB. On defense as well, they were lights-out against the Rattlers, holding them to two first downs the entire game. This is a team without many obvious weaknesses, and it will be a tough game for the 'Cats. Even with all the x-factors in Northwestern's favor, I'm still giving the 'Cats only a 35% chance of victory. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Wisconsin faced another weak opponent this week, but at least it was an in-conference one, in Purdue. While quarterback Joel Stave had a relatively unimpressive game, the Badgers continued to do what they do best: run the ball. Both Melvin Gordon and James White exceeded 140 yards, while Corey Clement added 83 of his own. On top of this, they had another lock-down game defensively, and they sit at 6th nationally in total defense. This team does scare me, but they are far from unbeatable. If the 'Cats can muster the run defense I know they're capable of and can run a solid, well-balanced offense, they have a good chance to win. 50% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (4) Penn State: In a massive step down to number 3, we find Penn State. The Nittany Lions steam rolled Kent State en route to a 34-0 victory. The defense was solid. The 0 points and 190 yards allowed are testament to that. And the run game was impressive as well, as Akeel Lynch ran for 123 and Zach Zwinak got into the endzone three times. However, Christian Hackenberg struggled, completing only 13 of 35 passes against a team that gave up over 350 pass yards to Bowling Green. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
4. LW (5) Illinois: The Illini had a bye this week, so they move up due to Indiana's failings, not their own success. I still believe the Wildcats have an 85% chance of victory. 
5. LW (3) Indiana: Before this week, the Hoosiers had promise, but yet again, Indiana pulled an Indiana. The Hoosiers continued to look good through the air in terms of yardage, throwing for 377 yards, but Nate Sudfeld threw three interceptions. On top of this, the Hoosiers got torched through the air and on the ground, allowing Mizzou 623 total yards. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
6. LW (6) Purdue: Purdue is not very good. As already mentioned, they got steam rolled by the Badgers, particularly on the ground. But their offense was not any better. Rob Henry completed only half his passes for 135 yards, while the run game picked up only 45. Ugly. Purdue does not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Northwestern: Northwestern continues to benefit from what is, overall, a very weak Legends Divison. The Wildcat's win against Maine was by no means a thing of beauty, but it never really felt in doubt. As a bonus, all signs are pointing to Venric Mark returning to the field against the Buckeyes. On top of the obvious benefit of having their best player on the field, the 'Cats playbook should open up significantly. Colter plus Mark is a scary combo for any defense. 
2. LW (2) Michigan: Two weeks in a row, both Northwestern and Michigan have played sub-par games against inferior programs, but these scenarios do not feel similar. Northwestern fans are nervous simply because the 'Cats did not win by a large enough margin in either game. I would contend this is foolish. Michigan fans, on the other hand, are nervous with good reason, as their games against both Akron and UConn, two bad teams, both came down to the bitter end. On top of this, there simply was not much to like from this Wolverines team. Even Devin Gardner, the one player who I thought could almost single-handedly lead this offense, looked bad against the Huskies. I'm beginning to wonder if this is even a good team, and questioning my choice to have them at number 2. Regardless, they have enough talent and a high enough ceiling to stay at #2 for now. Regardless, I'm growing increasingly confident in a Wildcat victory. 65% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (3) Nebraska: Not a lot to gather from Nebraska this week as they took care of business, beating FCS South Dakota St. 59-20. The Huskers put up a huge amount of offense, but their 465 yards allowed does little to quiet the criticisms of their defense. As such, this week did little to change my opinion of the Huskers.  Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
4. LW (5) Iowa: The Hawkeyes had easily the most impressive game in the Legends Division, doing something NU could not manage: steamrolling Western Michigan. Iowa destroyed the Broncos in every facet of the game, throwing well, passing well, and returning punts and interceptions for touchdowns. I wonder about the overall talent level of this team, and don't think they have a terribly high ceiling, but right now they look like a very solid, well-coached team. I'm worried this game is a major trap game candidate. I have to drop the Wildcats to a 70% chance of victory. 
5.  LW (6) Minnesota: The Minnesota running game continued to look highly impressive against San Jose St., but they're essentially missing the entirety of their passing game with Philip Nelson sidelined due to injury, and with his status into the next few weeks uncertain, this is a big blow. The Gophers get their first real test against Iowa this week, and it should be a significant game to learn about both teams. As of right now, I don't see much to change my opinion about this game, so still: 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (4) Michigan State: The Spartans are a very interesting team. One of the best defenses and one of the worst offenses nationally. The old adage says defense wins championships, but not if this is the type of offensive production you're getting. Many fans were praising Connor Cook as the quarterback of the future for MSU, but he looked lost and even got pulled for Andrew Maxwell, who was terrible, in relief. Honestly, I don't care how good this defense is, with this kind of quarterback play, they're going to struggle badly in the Big Ten. 80% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projections

Northwestern's likelihood of going undefeated gets a slight raise this week, albeit only to 3.03%. Still, we get to see our old friend Lloyd, quite possibly for the last time.

While being undefeated would certainly be nice, my model now has us at 9.35-2.65, slightly up from last week, but still leaving us with a most likely record of 9-3. 

Week 3 Big Ten Breakdown

This is my week 3 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: OSU further solidified their top position this week a 52-34 victory over Cal, and, surprisingly, they are the only remaining undefeated team in the Leaders Divison. The Buckeyes are not struggling without star quarterback Braxton Miller, as backup Kenny Guiton has performed outstandingly. In this game he threw for 4 TDs and no interceptions. The running game has been impressive as well, with both running back Jordan Hall and Guiton leading this attack, resulting in 332 rush yards against the Bears. You know Urban Meyer is not happy with the 34 points allowed, and indeed this Buckeyes defense does not seem on par with the offense. Nonetheless, Ohio State is still easily the most impressive team in the Big Ten. at the moment, I'm not a huge fan of the 'Cats chances here, but we still have a shot. I'm giving the 'Cats a 35% chance of victory. 
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: The Badgers lost to Arizona St. last week, but I'm not holding it too much against them. The Sun Devils are a good team, and the Badgers got absolutely no love from the referees. That being said, the Wisconsin defense showed weakness this week, giving up over 350 yards through the air. The Badger run game continues to look good, however, as Melvin Gordon ran for almost 200 yards. I wish the Wildcats got the Badgers at home, but I still like this matchup. 55% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
3. LW (3) Indiana: I'm moving Indiana back into the 3-spot this week, as I believe the week 2 loss to Navy was a fluke. While the Hoosiers' defense is suspect, they have the offense to compete in the Big Ten. Both their pass offense and QB rating, led by quarterback Nate Sudfeld, have Indiana at 11th in the country through these three weeks. On top of this, their run offense is far from weak, putting up 232 yards per game. This Hoosier offesnse is powerful enough to surprise a few teams. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
4. LW (3) Penn State: The Nittany Lions drop a spot after an upset loss to Central Florida. While PSU got their offense going, with an impressive 262 yard game from Christian Hackenberg and 128 rush yards and three touchdowns from running back Zach Zwinack, it wasn't enough, as the Knights outgained and outscored the Lions. The Nittany Lions do not play Northwestern. 
5. LW (6) Illinois: Some will argue that Illinois deserves to be ranked higher after playing a good Washington team tight. I, on the other hand, point to total offense. The Illini got almost doubled up in the game, getting outgained 615-327. The fact that this game was as close as it is is more a fluke than anything, as this Illinois team is weak against both the pass and the run. I'm leaving the 'Cats with an 85% chance of victory. 
6. LW (5) Purdue: Despite the loss, Purdue managed to redeem themselves somewhat this week, playing a very close game against Notre Dame. Whether Notre Dame is actually a good team remains to be seen, but the Boilermakers certainly looked better than they have in recent weeks. They remain one of the worst running teams in college football, but Rob Henry looked adequate at quarterback. All things considered, however, despite saving face last week, they appear to be the worst team in the Big Ten by a decent margin. Purdue does not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

1. LW (2) Northwestern: I can't believe I'm doing this after a weak performance by the Wildcats, but Northwestern appears to be the best team in the Legends division. This is a good team that can do enough to win easily against poor teams even with a sub-par performance, and they've been doing it without star running back Venric Mark. Michigan may again be able to oust them if the Wolverines recover strong this week, but for now, this spot belongs to the Wildcats. 
2. LW (1) Michigan: There was almost nothing to like about Michigan this week as they very nearly got upset by a truly awful Akron team. While Gardner looked good on the ground, running for over 100 yards, he looked less good as a passer, showing his questionable decision making en route to three interceptions. On top of this, Gardner appears to be the Wolverines' only legitimate running threat, as Fitzgerald Toussaint has been unable to muster even 4 yards per carry on the ground. The defense also looks suspect, giving up over 300 pass yards to a player who could not record 300 against UCF and James Madison combined. This is a team that will live or die with Devin Gardner, and because he is a talented player, they scare me a bit, but I still think Northwestern is the better team. 55% chance of victory. 
3. LW (3) Nebraska: Nebraska's defense is showing no signs of being able to fix itself as the Cornhuskers gave up 38 unanswered points to UCLA. On top of this, the Cornhuskers organization is now in turmoil as some ill-advised comments from coach Bo Pelini have come to light. There's no doubt that Martinez and Abdullah are talented players, and this Nebraska offense is very capable of putting up points, but the simple fact is this: if this defense remains as porous as it has been, and if Nebraska cannot get past this recent controversy, Nebraska will be no better than a third wheel to Northwestern and Michigan at the top of the division standings. Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
4. LW (6) Michigan State: Many people are very high on the Spartans right now, due to the fact that the Spartans finally had a solid offensive performance. MSU put up 547 yards, and Connor Cook looked like the quarterback they desperately need. But let's slow down for a minute; they were playing the Penguins. I'm not yet sold on the MSU offense, but I moved them up this week anyways due to the Spartan defense. Their 177 ypg allowed is the best in the entirety of the FBS--they appear to be for real. Even if this offense doesn't click, the defense is good enough to potentially win the Spartans a lot of games. I'm dropping the Wildcats to a 70% chance of victory. 
5.  LW (5) Iowa: How good of a story is Mark Weisman. The former transfer walk-on is nearly single-handedly leading the Hawkeye offense. His 85 rush attempts leads the nation by 10 carries. Despite Weisman's contributions, however, and despite Iowa's victory to Iowa State, this still does not look like a great team. They may be able to squeak by in a few more games, but for right now, they're just not great. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
6. LW (4) Minnesota: The Gophers are here do more to uncertainty than incompetence. Starting quarterback Philip Nelson, a huge part of Minnesota's offense, suffered an injury last week. If the Gophers play well without him, or if he manages to return, I will probably move them back up, but for right now, I assume he will not play, and they will struggle without him. 80% chance of Northwestern victory.

In our final non-conference game against Maine, I'd be utterly shocked if we lost. 99.5% chance to beat the Black Bears. This all results in Northwestern having a 2.80% chance of going undefeated, actually down from 3.90% a week ago. Still...

My shoddy mathematical model now projects us 9.30-2.70, leaving us with a most likely regular season record of 9-3. 

Western Michigan @ Northwestern Recap

Well, the game wasn't pretty, but we got the win. The offense was sloppy, the defense looked weak, and there was no energy. Yet we still won by 21. How should we take that? Let's give it a point by point look.

Kain Colter

Colter started this game very poorly, throwing an interception on a play that was, in short, a mess. He made a bad read and a bad throw into double coverage, giving Dan Vitale no chance to make a play. He was not asked to do much in the passing game after that, throwing for only six more passes. That being siad, he completed all of them, and threw a TD, but only picked up 40 yards. He looked better in the run game, making guys miss, shedding tackles, and showing his signature speed, resulting in 106 yards and a TD on 15 carries. 

Trevor Siemian

Trevor wasn't bad in this game, but he was less sharp than last week. His decision making, while not awful, was at times suspect, and his accuracy was at times off, most notably on a pass that got Christian Jones lit up. Furthermore, he was not asked to do all that much, throwing only 14 passes. All things considered, however, he was adequate. He completed a solid 64% of his passes for 99 yards and did not turn the ball over.

Treyvon Green

Another very good game for Treyvon. Given the uncertainty of Venric's health moving forward, this is certainly encouraging. Green demonstrated a nice package of quickness, speed, and especially power, hitting holes hard, breaking tackles, and pushing the pile. In the process, he picked up 158 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries. While the team is unquestionably weaker without Venric, Treyvon certainly is a solid starter in his absence.

Mike Trumpy

Trumpy continues to look like a decent backup option, as he rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries, including a nice 14 yard, outside the tackle run. 

Warren Long

Long was the talk of the week as the news broke that he may be burning his redshirt this week, and, in fact, his redshirt was burned. This decision is still somewhat confusing and concerning to me, as we have several other running back options. It  makes me question whether Venric's health is worse than commonly presumed. That being said, Long looked good in his very limited time, including a very impressive 13 yard run. Here's to hoping the redshirt was burned due solely to the fact that he is too good to keep on the bench. 

Tony Jones

Solid game for Tony, but not nearly as impressive as the last, putting up 38 yards on 4 catches. 

Dan Vitale

Not much of a performance for Vitale as he only caught one pass, a 4 yard shovel pass from Colter. Dunsmore 2.0 watch: Sophomore Dunsmore has surpassed Vitale. At this point of his sophomore year, Dunsmore had 4 more catches, 15 more yards, and as many TDs as Vitale currently has this year. 

Rashad Lawrence

Lawrence again oddly faded into obscurity, making no catches this week, after his solid performance last week. 

Christian Jones

Christian led the team in receiving this week, catching 5 passes and recording 60 yards, while also catching the team's only TD pass. He did a good job of shaking off an early injury and looked impressive after. 

Kyle Prater

Oof, ugly. Caught only one pass for two yards, and fumbled on the play. I think it's getting safe to assume he's never going to live up to the hype, but I owuld be delighted to be proven wrong. 

Pass Defense

This was kind of a mixed bag. The 'Cats allowed the Broncos to catch fewer than 50% of their passes and allowed just over 200 yards, both very impressive statistics for Northwestern. However, the corners, particularly Dwight White, looked shaky. White got burned on a simple go route for a 75 yard TD. This is highly concerning as we approach Big Ten season. Northwestern also recorded only one interception, whereas I expected more. On the plus side, however, the interception was recorded by Ibraeheim Campbell, and marked his fifth consecutive game with a pick
. 

Rush Defense

Also kind of a mixed bag. Tyler Van Tubbergren, not a running quarterback, managed 33 yards on the ground. Running back Brian Fields also managed a fairly solid game with 79 yards on only 13 carries. On the other hand, co-starter Dareyon Chance managed only 30 yards on 11 carries. All things considered, however, you have to assume the coaches expect more from this run defense. 

Jeff Budzien

Budzien is perfect no more after missing a 42 yarder. The occasional missed 40+ yarder is to be expected however, and Budzien is still a very good kicker. 

Punt/Kick Returns

We still don't have a punt return, but Matt Harris may be the kick returner we badly need, as he put up an impressive 47 yard return.

Bottom Line

I don't think any fan is going to call this the most encouraging win we've ever had, but there are both optimistic and pessimistic ways to look at it. I'm leaning towards the optimistic view. Alright, fine, the team played poorly and lackadaisically, but we won by 21 points. This is key. If we were to talk to Northwestern fans from just a few years back and complain about our three touchdown win, they'd look at us like we're crazy. Sure, we were playing a bad team, but games like the 2009 EMU 3-point victory come to mind. Heck, the game we perceived as a blowout against Rice in 2010 was a 17-point victory. The fact is, being able to win by 21 while playing well below average is the mark of a good team. Besides, the simple fact is, Fitz-coached teams do not tend to look as impressive against weak opponents. Certain coaches (e.g. Bret Bielema) seem to inspire their players to come out at their best against weak opponents. Fitz is not one of those guys, for good or for bad. Simply put, I recommend not reading too much into this game and just being happy with this win. 

Western Michigan @ NU: A Breakdown of the Broncos

Who is Western Michigan? 

Western Michigan University is a public university in Kalamazoo, MI with an undergraduate population of around 20,000. In terms of education, US News and World Report ranks them at 181st among national universities. Their athletic teams, called "The Broncos,"  play in the Mid-American Conference.

How Did They Do Last Year?

Poorly. They went 4-8 with wins against Eastern Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Central Michigan.

How About This Year?

Not any better. The Broncos are 0-2 with a loss to lowly Nicholls St. last week. 

Recent History Against Northwestern

These two teams have never played.

Coaching

32 year-old P.J. Fleck is serving his first year as Broncos head coach. He is currently the youngest coach in the FBS. Most recently prior to accepting this job, Fleck served as a wide receivers coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fleck took over after the firing of Bill Cubit follosing last season.
Stepping in at offensive coordinator is Kirk Ciarrocca, who previously was a running backs coach at Delaware. Defensive duties belong to Ed Pinkham, who is in his first year after leaving the same position at Elon. 

Western Michigan Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Western Michigan's pass offense has been very bad, falling to 109th in the nation in yards per attempt. Senior starting quarterback Tyler Van Tubbergen has struggled mightily, failing to complete even 50% of his passes, while not yet throwing a touchdown. On top of this, he has only gone for 327 yards and has thrown four interceptions. Freshman backup Zach Terrell, has completed barely over 40% of his passes, but at least has gotten the ball into the endzone twice. He has however, added an interception. Northwestern, who currently is at the top of the interception rankings nationally, has a good chance to add even more this week. The Broncos' go-to receiver as of now is true freshman Corey Davis, a 2-star prospect whose only other offer came from Illinois State. This is not the kind of guy you want to have to count on. Regardless, he has twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team, with 16. Sophomore Timmy Keith has added eight receptions of his own, but beyond this, the threat from wide receivers drops substantially. Only one other wideout, sophomore Courtney Bynes has recorded even a single catch. Leading receiver from last year, Jaime Wilson, has been suffering from an injury and is questionable for this game. Three other guys to keep an eye on in the receiving game are tight end Clark Mussman, running back Brian Fields, and running back Dareyon Chance, all seniors. Overall, this is not an intimidating bunch at all. Advantage: Northwestern

Syracuse Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Bronco rush attack has not been much better than their passing game, running for only 121 yards per game. There are only two guys who I expect to contribute here, Brian Fields and Dareyon Chance, and they are likely to share the load approximately equally. Fields has been a contributor for the Broncos for all four of his years at the school, yet he has already tied his career high in touchdowns with 3. This season, he has carried the ball 31 times for 127 yards, giving him 4.1 yards per carry, somewhat below his 5.3 from last season. Chance burst on to the scene last year, taking over as a feature back. He carried the ball 176 times for 947 yards and four touchdowns. His 5.38 yards per carry has dropped only slightly to 5.08 this year, as he has carried the ball 26 times for 132 yards. All in all, Chance and Fields are both competent running backs, but the Northwestern run defense is stifling, and I don't expect much from either of them.  Advantage: Northwestern

Western Michigan Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

First, I should acknowledge that Venric is listed as questionable for this game, but I will be very, very surprised if he plays. Therefore, our primary run threats will be Colter, Green, and Trumpy, with a little Buckley, Malin Jones, and maybe even true freshman Warren Long, who is potentially due to have his redshirt burned. While it would be nice to have Mark here, I have total faith in the guys we will have on the field. Besides, the Broncos run defense is poor. They have given up 201.5 yards per game and got torched by a running quarterback in their last matchup Advantage: Northwestern

Western Michigan Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

The Northwestern pass offense is looking to be a huge improvement from last year, with Siemian playing fantastically and even Colter looking quite good. The 'Cats are getting lots of receivers involved, and each receiver is performing admirably. The Broncos pass defense is yet to give up many yards, nor have they allowed a touchdown pass, but the Northwestern passing game is orders of magnitude better than Michigan State's or Nicholls State's.  We will be seeing Western Michigan's pass yards allowed per game (currently 170) skyrocket. Advantage: Northwestern.

Western Michigan Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

I have been singing the praises of Northwestern's special teams and, to an extent, they've been making me look foolish. Without Venric, we are yet to return a punt and our kick returning is mediocre. These aspects will improve with Mark's return, but until then, I don't expect much.  The Broncos have been pretty average on kick returns, and a bit better than NU, with 22.5 yards per return. Their 2 yards per punt return, however, is among the worst in the nation (but at least they have a punt return!). The kicking game is another story. Jeff Budzien continues to be perfect and allegedly nailed a 70 yarder (?!) during practice. He, along with the rest of the kickoff unit, has also been good in that duty, as NU is a top 20 team in kickoff return yardage allowed. The Broncos' kicker, Andrew Haldemen, has taken, and made, only one kick on the year. They are a pretty average team in terms of kickoff return yardage allowed. Northwestern punter Brandon Williams has been somewhat subpar in punt average, at 39.22 yards per punt, but the 'Cats' .5 yards per return allowed is top 10 in the country. Western Michigan's punter J. Schroeder (J. appears to be his name, no joke) is actually punting quite well at over 44 yards per punt, but the Broncos are allowing over 9 yards per return. Overall, I'm less satisfied with NU's special teams than I'd like to be, but I still give this matchup to the 'Cats, mostly due to Budzien. Advantage: Northwestern

Bottom Line

This should be an easy game for the 'Cats, as they are the better program across the board. I see Northwestern getting off to a very early lead, but slowing later as starters leave the game. In fact, I will be somewhat surprised to see our key players play much at all in the second half. If the starters played all game, 60-70 points would certainly be within reach for the 'Cats. instead, I'm going with the following: Prediction: Northwestern 41 - Western Michigan 13.

Week 2 Big Ten Breakdown and NU Record Projection

This is my week 2 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

1. LW (1) Ohio State: Despite Braxton Miller going down with a knee injury, Ohio State did everything right to stay in the top spot. Backup Kenny Guiton went 19/28 with 152 yards, 2 TDs, and an interception, while rushing for 83 and a touchdown on nine carries. The rest of the run game looked good as well, as the Buckeyes rushed for 262 yards. OSU's defense was similarly solid, holding SDSU to 280 total yards and forcing four turnovers. Overall, Ohio State is a very good, but not unbeatable team, and the uncertainty of Braxton Miller's health is an intriguing storyline. While Guiton is good, the team is clearly better with Miller, and while he should be back shortly, one has to wonder whether he will be 100%. Due to the uncertainty surrounding Miller, and because of how well the 'Cats played, I am bumping Northwestern up to a 45% chance of victory. Keep an eye on this Saturday, when OSU plays Cal. This is still a good first look at how NU and OSU compare.
2. LW (2)Wisconsin: It's very tough to get a read on Wisconsin, due to the fact that they've only played two cupcakes, but they have certainly looked good against said cupcakes. For the second straight week, three Wisconsin players exceeded 100 rush yards. The defense was also stifling, holding Tennessee Tech to 113 yards. Overall, Wisconsin is outscoring opponents 93-0 so far. They get their first test this weekend against Arizona St., and we should have a better idea of what to think. As for right now, I'm leaving Northwestern at 55% win chance due to the NU rush defense.
3. LW (4) Penn State: Penn State moves up this week, but this has more to do with Indiana's performance than the Nittany Lion's. That being said, Penn State played well. Hackenberg performed admirably, throwing for 311 yards, while both Lynch and Belton broke the 100 yard mark on the ground. The defense was also good, holding Eastern Michigan to 183 yards. The Nittany Lions do not play Northwestern. 
4. LW (3) Indiana: Indiana falls one spot after a loss to Navy. The Hoosiers got the passing game going with 363 yards from Nate Sudfeld, but the Navy option attack was too much for them, leading to 444 yards and no turnovers on the ground. The Hoosier defense just appears too porous for them to be very good right now. Indiana does not play Northwestern. 
5. LW (6) Illinois: Well well well, maybe I was too hasty with the Illini. Illinois demolished the Cincinnati team that blew out Purdue a week before. I'm not ready to move Illinois higher than 5, but they have the potential to move up a spot or two, we'll see. Scheelhaase was very good, throwing 4 TDs and no picks with 312 yards, and the run game backed him up solidly. Defensively, the Illini were mediocre in terms of yardage, but held Cincinnati to only 17, so they were effective. Was this a fluke? Quite possibly; we'll see when they play Washington this week. But for right now, I have to assume it was not and lower the 'Cats to only an 85% chance of victory against the Illini. 
6. LW (5) Purdue: Womp. This team looks awful. After being blown out in week one, they barely beat Indiana St. In fact, they actually got outgained by the Sycamores. There's very little to like about this team and 1-11 seems like a very real possibility at the moment. 

Legends Division

1. LW (1) Michigian: Michigan got a quality win this week over Notre Dame. Devin Gardner made some poor decisions in the game, but did very well statistically, throwing for 294 yards and 4 TDs, while adding 82 yards and a TD on the ground. Notre Dame had some luck through the air, however, as Tommy Rees threw for 314 yards. The Wolverines ultimately moved up in my estimation this week, but only about as much as the 'Cats did. I maintain a 52% chance of a Northwestern victory. 
2. LW (2) Northwestern: A solid win against Syracuse makes me feel a bit better about this Wildcat team than I did a week ago. As of right now, I feel we've solidified the #2 spot. For my full impressions of our week s game, read my Syracuse @ Northwestern recap. 
3. LW (3) Nebraska: There isn't much to get out of Nebraska's win against Southern Mississippi this weekend, as Southern Miss is a dreadful team. Everyone performed as would be expected. Abdullah had a solid game, and Taylor Martinez had a very good, but ultimately unremarkable, performance. The defense had a better game statistically as well, but, again, it's against Southern Mississippi. In the end, however, I saw nothing that changed my opinion that Northwestern matches up very well against this team. Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
4. Minnesota: There is a pretty huge drop-off between the top 3 and the bottom 3 in the Legends Division, but for right now, Minnesota gets the "honor" of being the best team in the bottom 3. The reason they are a bottom 3 team, however, is primarily this: They are a terrible passing team. Philip Nelson is struggling mightily, completing only 48.6% of his passes this year. The run game is vastly better, though, as they ran for 342 yards in this game. Northwestern displayed last year that a team can win while seldom passing, but I just don't think this year's Minnesota team is that kind of team. I also struggle to see any team beatng Northwestern without at least a decent pass game. Therefore, I still see a 80% likelihood of victory for the 'Cats. 
5. Iowa: Iowa won this week, but this week's victory may be more discouraging than their week 1 loss. They did well offensively, particularly on the ground, as Weisman ran for 180 yards (AIRBHG smiting incoming?). And they did well defensively, limiting Missouri State to 197 yards, but they did not take advantage of opportunities, winning against this FCS team by only 14. They were also undisciplined, getting penalized for 100 yards. Northwestern looks like a much better team: 75% chance of victory. 
6. Michigan State: Another similar week for MSU. They looked good defensively, allowing only 155 yards (albeit against lowly South Florida), but didn't get much of an offense going, picking up only 265 yards. Their passing is particularly miserable, as three quarterbacks combined for only 94 yards. For the same reasons I like NU against Minnesota, I like the 'Cats here. 85% chance of victory for Northwestern.

For non-conference games, I now give us a 97% chance to beat Western Michigan, and a 99% chance to beat Maine. This all results in Northwestern having a 3.90% chance of going undefeated, up from 3.13% a week ago! I get to post this again:

My shoddy mathematical model now projects us 9.43-2.67, leaving us with a most likely regular season record of 9-3. 

Syracuse @ NU Recap

Don't look now, guys, but we might have a pretty good team. Now that the honeymoon phase after this game has ended, and I've had the opportunity to rewatch the game, it's become clear that there is a lot not to like about the 'Cat's play, but there remains much, much more to like. It was overall a great game and a good omen for the rest of the season. Let's look at this game point by point

Quarterbacks

I will break down Colter and Siemian individually, but I think there is some value to looking at their combined performance, due to the fact that their combined quarterbacking essentially takes the role filled by one player on other teams. The fact is, combined, they were absolutely outstanding. Together, they went 30-37 for 375 yards, 4 TDs, and no picks. This is, in my opinion, Northwestern's best passing performance since Persa's and Colter's combined drubbing of Indiana in 2011. The only negative I can really point to in the passing game is that they were sacked 3 times (all Colter, actually), but even that is not that bad. Overall, this was fantastic to see. 

Kain Colter

Colter started the game and appeared 100% following his injury, so that in and of itself was encouraging. Even more encouraging, however, was his contribution in the passing game. The Colter=run, Siemian=pass idea no longer seems to work, to Syracuse's dismay. The Orange came out with a run-oriented defense, and Colter torched them, throwing on all four plays of Northwestern's very quick opening scoring drive. While Kain's role in the passing game slowed substantially after the opening drive, he still had a good day through the air, and forced the orange to stay honest, going 15-18 for 116 yards and a touchdown. I did think he was a bit too quick to scramble at times, and I do wish he would trust his line and his passing ability better when in the pocket. While his legs are fantastic, he occasionally counts on them too much. Speaking of his runs, however, he performed well in this category, leading the team in rush yards, with 87 on only 11 carries, while scoring a touchdown on a fantastic stretch. Ignoring sacks, his rushing was better yet, going for 102 on only 8 carries. In the option game, however, he is a bit handcuffed at the moment, without Venric. Venric does a great job of spreading the field that Green, Trumpy, and Buckley have been unable to emulate, and defenders were largely able to key in on Colter. I mean this more as a sign of optimism than pessimism, though, as Colter performed admirably regardless, and will only be better with his option partner by his side. 

Trevor Siemian

I'm trying hard to come up with criticisms for Trevor, and you know what? I got nothing. He brought in all the great throws from the Cal game with none of the bone-headed decisions. How's this for a first half stat line? 11-12, 181 yards, 2 TDs. And that's from a guy who only took about half the team's snaps! He played even less in the second half, but still performed admirably, adding an extra 78 yards and a touchdown. He rushed only once, but it was a 4 yard scramble for a first down. I'm no scout, but I will say this: I truly belief Siemian is the best pro prospect at quarterback we've had in a long time. He is fantastic at deep passes to the sideline, and if he can continue to do this without making stupid decisions, he will be a spectacular.

Running Backs

I'm going to cover our running backs as a unit because I don't have enough to say about any individual. Overall, there was less to like than there was in week one, but I'm not sure how much of the fault I should put on the backs. The line did not open up great holes, and, throughout the game, the Syracuse defense was simply keyed into the run. Green was our most impressive running back, going for 66 on 14 carries and a touchdown. He wasn't given many opportunities to succeed, as he frequently ran into a wall, but he did look good at pushing/pulling the pile. He also contributed in the receiving game, scoring the 'Cat's first receiving touchdown, and going for 17 yards on two catches. Trumpy had similar issues, as he simply could never get into space, and went for only 36 on 11. Stephen Buckley also saw substantial time. He didn't do much statistically (5 carries for 15), but he's an intriguing guy out there, as he's something of a running back/receiver combo, often motioning into the slot, and getting involved in the receiving game. Malin Jones also got a carry but got nowhere on it. 

Receivers

Again, I will highlight some key players from this unit, but I'd like to talk about it as a whole first. Before the season, I discussed how I'd been disappointed by recent regression at the wide receiver position, and thought coaching might be to blame. As of now, I'm taking that back. This offseason marked a large progression for our receiving corps, and I have thus far been very impressed. We have an impressive corps, with various receivers filling various roles. Tony Jones as the deep threat, Christian Jones as a big over-the-middle guy, Rashad Lawrence as an all-around-playmaker, Dan Vitale as a perpetual mismatch who can break a tackle or four, Kyle Prater as a sure-handed physical monster, and Dickerson and Jensen as the consistent backups. We'll see how they do against better secondaries, but right now I'm very encouraged.

Tony Jones

Tony just had the game of a lifetime. Last week, he had what was, at the time, the best game of his career with five catches for 70 yards. This week, he blew that performance away with nine catches, 185 yards, and a touchdown. Despite being drop-prone last season, he's now catching everything going his way, and is lightning fast out there. He definitely appears to be an all-Big Ten candidate at the moment. 

Dan Vitale

Vitale had another very solid game, catching four passes for 42 yards and a TD. Teams just look like they don't know how to stop him. He's a mismatch against just about anyone covering him. Dunsmore 2.0 watch: Vitale has 5 more catches, 71 more yards, and 2 more TDs than Dunsmore did at this point of his sophomore year. That being said, Dunsmore's breakout game was game 3, so we'll see how Dan does this upcoming game. 

Rashad Lawrence

After never being targeted in week 1, Lawrence looked good this week, catching three passes for 36 yards, including a fantastic over-the-shoulder catch on the sideline from Siemian. 

Christian Jones

Mr. Consistent. He looks very good coming across the middle and making catches. He had three grabs for 35 yards and a TD this week. 

Kyle Prater

Prater didn't do anything spectacular, but it's just good to see him getting involved, and looking at least relatively healthy. He was targeted four times, caught three passes, and went for 22 yards. 

Pass Defense

In terms of yardage, this was a prototypically Northwestern day. The corners gave up large cushions and allowed lots of underneath throws, but they did a good job of preventing anything over the top, as the Orange averaged only 6.5 yards per attempt. Tackling after the catch, however, was simply not good, particularly by Dwight White. He often looked embarrassingly bad on pursuit. This simply has to improve before we play teams with notably athletic receivers. On the plus side, and this is a big plus, the 'Cats wrapped up four interceptions, and I would say only one of those was gift-wrapped. Traveon Henry's really stands out, as he had terrific pursuit on the ball in the air and made a sideline grab, as did Ariguzo's, as he made an athletic diving grab. The 'Cats are now tied for first in the FBS with 7 picks. Northwestern also did a great job of knocking the ball down, especially from the defensive line, as they knocked down 7 passes. Their 21 passes defended on the year is also a nationally-best mark. Seeing as defended passes has been a weak point in certain recent years, this is very encouraging to see. Let me put this in perspective: NU has already defended half as many passes as they did in their 13 games in 2011. 

Rush Defense

Statistically speaking, the 'Cats did pretty well, allowing 133 yards on 34 carries, but you can tell Fitz expects much more from his defense. Tackling was sloppy, and backs often managed to add a few yards to where they should have been stopped. On the plus side, the 'Cats did do a good job of eliminating the big play, as the Orange's longest run was a 15 yard QB-keeper in garbage time, but again, tackling simply must improve before the 'Cats take on the Buckeyes. 

Colin Ellis

Statistically, this wasn't a standout game for Ellis, as he recorded six tackles with no picks, no tackles for loss, and no forced fumbles. Certainly not as impressive as week one. But to his credit he did his job very well, being where he was supposed to be on the field and playing with a lot of energy. The coaches were impressed, labeling him defensive player of the week. 

Ibraheim Cambell

The guy just continues to impress me in both the run and pass game. He was making tackles in the box so much that I frequently thought he was a linebacker until I saw his number, and his pass defense continues to stand out, as he added his fourth interception in four games dating back to last year. 

4 DE Set

I just wanted to point out something that, strangely, has not been mentioned in either game broadcast thus far. Northwestern fans should remember that, in the past, Northwestern frequently went to a 3 down lineman set in pass downs, particularly on third downs. While that set has not been eliminated, it has largely been replaced by an interesting 4 end, 0 tackle set. Typically this consists of Odenigbo and Gibson outside and Scott and Lowry in the middle. Just something to keep an eye on going forward. 

Jeff Budzien

Not much to say. Just another perfect day, connecting from 32 and 21 while making all six PATs. He also continues to look good in kickoffs. 

Brandon Williams

Saturday was a mixed bag for Williams. Three of his punts were solid, although one of those unluckily hopped into the endzone before being downed. The other two were not so good, as one was booted six yards deep into the endzone and the other was shanked out of bounds. 

Punt/Kick Returns

Lousy. We need Venric back bad. We continue to have 0 punt return yards, and we had an ok, but not great, 42 yards on two kick returns from Buckley. 

Bottom Line

This was a very good offensive performance. The passing game has improved leaps-and-bounds from last year. Siemian looks like he could be something special, and the receivers are finally looking like the unit they were supposed to be last year. On top of this, Colter's arm has improved in the offseason. As for the running game, having Colter in is certainly helpful, but we're missing Venric. The line does scare me a bit, however. They're providing very solid pass protection, but the running lanes look much smaller than they last year. 

On defense, I'm reasonably happy with the secondary, but White must get much, much better at tackling, and VanHoose had his issues in that area as well. the linebacking crew continues to be solid, and we're stacked at defensive end. I do want to see a better push from the defensive tackles however, but this problem seems to be circumvented in certain situations with the 4 DE set. 

On secondary, Budzien continues to be one of the best in the country, Williams is good if unspectacular, and the return game will improve with Mark's return. 

Overall, we are a very good team, but not without flaws. I definitely want to see some improvements on the defense, but Fitz seems similarly frustrated, and I'm sure he and Hankwitz will work on fixing them in the next few weeks. We've got a couple boring games ahead of us, a bye week, and then perhaps the most anticipated Northwestern regular season game of the last 10+ years. Let's hope we get the kinks worked out by then, because if we do, we have a very, very special team. 

Highlights

I almost forgot to include these!

NU Highlights: http://www.northwesternhighlights.com/2013/09/northwestern-wildcats-vs-syracuse.html

Glopknar: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tuXsOo7FPs

And Northwestern football is putting out a fantastic series called "The Hunt." Episode 4 is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLkg0mMhf2c&feature=c4-overview-vl&list=PLB5F1E87A5B2FBF2A I encourage watching the earlier episodes as well. 

Syracuse @ Northwestern Preview: A Breakdown of the Orange

Who Is Syracuse? 

Syracuse is a private school from Syracuse, NY, with an undergraduate population of a little less than 15,000. In terms of education, US News and World Report ranks them a respectable 58th among national universities. Their athletic teams, called "The Orange," formerly "Orangemen" and "Orangewomen," play in the ACC.

How Did They Do Last Year?

Last year, Syracuse went a solid 8-5, including wins against #9-ranked, Sugar Bowl Champion Lousiville and against West Virginia in the Pinstripe Bowl. 

Recent History Against Northwestern

Syracuse and Northwestern have played three times since 2008. The first, in '08, was an easy victory for the Wildcats behind a solid effort by C.J. Bacher, Tyrell Sutton, and the Northwestern defense in their season opener. 2009, on the other hand, is a game I'd like to forget. Greg Paulus, a former Duke point guard (you read that correctly) thrashed us for 346 yards and 2 TDs. Receiver Mike Williams alone was responsible for 209 of those yards. Despite Mike Kafka's 35-42, 390 yard effort, the Wildcats were unable to counter, as they put up only 52 rush yards. Last year's match-up was also not pretty, but at least it went for a Wildcat victory. The Orange's Ryan Nassib threw for an insane 482 yards, but Venric Mark had a breakout game, particularly on punt returns, and Trevor Siemian came off the bench to lead a thrilling game-winning drive.

Coaching

Scott Shafer was officially named the Orange's head coach in January of this year after previous head coach Doug Marrone left for the Buffalo Bills. Shafer previously served as Syracuse's defensive coordinator. Under his tenure, the Syracuse defense improved immensely. Replacing Shafer at defensive coordinator is Chuck Bullough, formerly linebackers coach for the Cleveland Brown. The offensive coordinator is George McDonald, whose last job was wide receivers coach at University of Miami. 

Players to Watch For

Drew Allen: The senior QB was listed as an "or" on the depth chart alongside sophomore Terrel Hunt entering last week, but Allen played the entire game, so I assume he is the go-to starter for the Orange at this point. That being said, Allen was no Ryan Nassib in his first start. He completed only 16 of 37 passes for 182 yards, two interceptions, and no touchdowns. It will be interesting to see if Hunt ever makes an appearance.
Jerome Smith: Both the junior Smith and senior Prince-Tyson Gulley will share the load at running back, but, to me, Smith is the more threatening of the two. Last year, he got more carries than Gulley (Gulley was more of a threat than Smith in the receiving game) en route to a 1,000 yard+ season. He added 2 TDs and 72 yards against Penn State last week.
Marquis Spruill: If I have to pick one defensive player to look out for in this game, I'm going with senior middle linebacker Spruill. Spruill started 12 games last year, and performed admirably, including 8 tackles against the 'Cats. He was most adept at making plays in the backfield, including 9 tackles for losses on the season and 2 sacks.

Syracuse Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Drew Allen did not look good in week 1, but we'll see how he looks coming out with a week already under his belt. One has to assume the game plan is to target Dwight White's side of the field early and often. White is inexperienced and looked poor off the bench last week. The Orange's depth chart includes two starting wide receivers: Jarrod West, a junior who was Syracuse's third-leading receiver a year ago, and Adrian Flemming, a senior who recorded his first two career catches a week ago. As or right now, it is impossible to say who White will be primarily responsible for covering. Senior Chris Clark and junior Jeremiah Kobena will also see time at receiver. Sophomore H-Back Ashton Broyld should also get involved in the pass game. Collin Ellis is likely to be responsible for covering him, and, if Ellis plays half as well as last week, that should not be an issue. Also, keep an eye on TE Beckett Wales, Syracuse's fourth receiving option last year. Overall, I like the 'Cats in this match-up. While White may not be great and may occasionally get burned, he should look far better with a week of prep behind him, and NU's safety corps should be good enough to back him up. I also like VanHoose against West or Flemming. The primary reason I like NU, though, is simply that Allen looked unimpressive in his first start, and I don't see that changing dramatically this week. Advantage: Northwestern

Syracuse Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley should both see carries in this game. Smith was the better player a week ago, getting in the endzone 2 times and adding 73 yards on 16 carries. Gulley was fairly mediocre, rushing for only 24 yards on 12 carries. Drew Allen does not appear to be a threat in the running game. I have to like Northwestern in this match-up as well. As noted in last week's game recap, Northwestern shut down the Cal run game following the initial drive, and I have to believe this Syracuse offense is not as good as Bigelow and the rest of the Cal offense. Advantage: Northwestern

Syracuse Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

This is a tough match-up to call for a couple reasons. First and foremost, it is unclear how much of a contribution, if any, Venric and Colter will have this weekend. Clearly, our gameplan changes significantly depending on how much they play. That being said, I believe Green and Trumpy are decent running threats regardless. Second, Syracuse embarrassed the Penn St. running game as they went for only 57 yards. It is unclear to me whether Syracuse's run defense is really good or Penn State's run offense is just bad. I think some of the latter option comes into play, but I don't want to take anything away from a Syracuse run defense that truly did look impressive. All this being said, I'm tentatively going to give this matchup to the 'Cats, primarily because I think Colter and Mark will play at least some role in this game. Advantage: Northwestern

Syracuse Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

Even if Colter does play, I expect Siemian to be the primary passer for this game, and I'm ok with that. Despite forcing some passes last week, Siemian looked good, and having a better idea of what his role will be entering into this week should be helpful. On top of this, both Joneses and Vitale looked like very good targets, and I assume Rashad Lawrence will get himself into the mix. From the other end, Syracuse allowed Penn State a hit-or-miss passing game from Christian Hackenberg. And last year, the Syracuse pass defense was mediocre. All things considered, Siemian and his receiving corps look like the more impressive side in this match-up. as well. Advantage: Northwestern.

Syracuse Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

We will win this match-up. I can probably just say that right off the bat about just about every team we'll play this year. Syracuse's kicker Ross Krautman has gotten worse every year he has been at the school, beginning with an 18-19 FG year his freshman season, through a 15-23 season last year. Last week, he went 1-2, missing a 42 yarder and making a 32 yarder. Punter Jonathan Fisher has had a mediocre career, averaging 38.58 yards per punt last season. George Morris II is getting his first shot at kick returning this year, so it's too early to evaluate him, and punt returner Ritchy Desir is pretty average in his role. Even if Mark doesn't do return duties this week, I like Northwestern at every position in the special teams. Advantage: Northwestern

Bottom Line

Northwestern is the better team across the board. We should not have too much difficulty moving the ball or stopping it. It is true: strange things happen with Northwestern, particularly against Syracuse, but being away from the dome, and instead surround by the buzz of our home opener, should help. I don't see much going wrong here. Prediction: Northwestern 44 - Syracuse 24.

A Week One Look at the Big Ten

After only one week, it can be pretty challenging to get much of a read on teams. After the first few weeks, playbooks open up, depth charts change, adjustments are made, etc. But, what the hay, let's go ahead and judge them anyways. I'm going to try to break down every Big Ten team based on their week one performances and rank them by where I currently feel they will finish in the division, as well as, for the teams we play, offering my take on our likelihood of victory.

Leaders Division

1. Ohio State: Let me start by saying that Ohio State did not look terribly impressive in their opener. Sure, Braxton Miller completed 68% of his passes and threw 2 TDs, but he did so while only going for 178 yards and throwing an interception. And, sure, they tacked on 261 rush yards and won 40-20, but they did all this against lowly Buffalo, who went 4-8 in the MAC last year. The fact is, Ohio State looks very beatable. They simply have too great of talent and coaching for me to rank them any lower than #1, but I have to say, NU has a decent chance against them. I'm not going to go as far as to predict a 'Cats victory, but the x-factors (homecoming, night game, incredible buzz) will certainly make this interesting. I give the 'Cats about a 40% chance of victory. Also, keep an eye on September 14, when OSU plays Cal. This should be a good first look at how NU and OSU compare.
2. Wisconsin: Wisconsin was playing lowly UMASS, a 1-11 MAC team a year ago, so it is tough to get much of a read on the Badgers, but they beat up on the Minutemen about as anyone would have expected. The Badgers put up nearly 600 yards, including a staggering 393 rush yards, with three players breaking the 100 yard mark. They were perfectly capable of tacking on the big play as well, as Jared Abbrederis picked up 122 receiving yards and 2 TDs on only 2 catches. The Wisconsin defense also limited UMASS to a measly 212 total yards. Right now, there is not a big gap between Ohio State and Wisconsin at the top of this division. These two teams match up on September 28--definitely a game to keep an eye on. As for how Northwestern matches up with the Badgers, right now I'm counting my lucky stars that the 'Cats have an excellent rush defense. I like Northwestern in this match-up due to that fact, but not by much. 55% win chance for the Wildcats.
3. Indiana: Indiana played FCS Indiana St. so this is another case where it's difficult to get a read on a team, but there was a lot to like for the Hoosiers (73 points scored) and a lot not to like (35 points allowed). Given that Indiana beat Indiana St. by only a touchdown last year, there is some reason to believe these Hoosiers are better than last year. Indiana got a good rushing performance out of Tevin Coleman, but their quarterback situation is unclear, as three players saw substantial time. You have to figure this is a situation the Hoosiers will want to figure out sooner rather than later. On the other side of the ball, Indiana looked very beatable, especially on the ground. Unfortunately, the 'Cats do not get a chance to see Indiana this year. 
4. Penn State: In a few weeks, I may regret not ranking Penn State above Indiana, but, for now, 4th is where they're sitting. Freshman quarterback Christian Hackenburg got the start against Syracuse and looked good, but not great, going 22/31 for 278 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs. The running game was far more inept, as starting running back Zach Zwinak picked up only 61 yards on 24 carries, while the rest of the team went for a combined -4 yards. When the Orange had the ball, Penn St. looked far more solid, holding Drew Allen to only only 16 completions on 37 attempts. The Syracuse run game never got going either, as the Orange picked up only 71 yards. The Nittany Lions do not face Northwestern this year. 
5. Purdue: Purdue is lucky Illinois is in this division because, boy, did they look bad, getting embarrassed 42-7 by Cincinnati. Rob Henry went only 18-35 while throwing 2 picks and no TDs, and they didn't have much success on the ground either. Their leading rusher, Dalyn Dawkins, picked up only 26 yards on 4 carries. This is not a good team. Unfortunately Northwestern does not get a chance to play them. 
6. Illinois: Well, Illinois was Illinois, barely squeaking by the Southern Illinois Salukis. Scheelhaase had a good day through the air, throwing for 416 yards, but no matter how many good things I say about the Illini, they still only beat the Salukis by 8. This is a really bad team. Northwestern plays them in our final game of the year, and I am very optimistic about our chances. 97% likelihood of victory for Northwestern.

Legends Division

1. Michigian: Michigan was one team that actually looked very good this weekend, as they blew out Central Michigan, who played in a bowl last year, 59-9. Despite Devin Gardner throwing two interceptions, the Wolverine offense looked good. Fitzgerald Toussaint successfully returned from an injury, picking up 57 yards on 14 carries. Derrick Green also looked like a legitimate option at running back, picking up 58 yards on 11 carries. Devin Gardner also appeared to be a threat in the running game, running for 52 yards. Furthermore, the Michigan defense was impressive, allowing only 210 yards. Michigan and Northwestern match up on November 16th, and it should be a heck of a game. I like us in this game due only to the fact that we have home field advantage 52% chance of a Northwestern victory. 
2. Northwestern: I put Northwestern at a very close 2nd in the legends division. Our victory was probably the most impressive, in terms of opponent and circumstances, of any Big Ten team's this week. Partially for this reason, we were named ESPN's Big Ten team of the week. For my full impressions of our week 1 game, read my Northwestern @ Cal recap. 
3. Nebraska: Before the season, I had Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska in a close, three-way race for the Legends lead. However, after seeing them play, my opinion of the Huskers took a big hit. The fact is, Nebraska's defense is lousy. They allowed 602 yards of total offense to a Wyoming team that finished only 72nd in that category nationally last year. The Nebraska offense, on the other hand, was impressive. While Taylor Martinez is no longer an elite passer, he has improved and threw three 3 TDs. On top of this, Ameer Abdullah, Imani Cross, and Martinez add up to be a lethal running trio. When all was said and done however, Nebraska beat a mediocre-to-bad Wyoming team by only a field goal. Nebraska has the potential to be a good, maybe even great, team, but they are far from there yet, due to a pitiful defense. Their biggest advantage this season is an extremely easy conference schedule, but I don't think that will be enough to contend for the division win. Northwestern plays UNL on November 2nd, and if there's any good team we match up better against than Nebraska, I'm not sure who it is. Despite the fact that we get them in Lincoln, I'm going to be bold and say Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
4. Minnesota: Bizarre game for the Gophers, as the scoreboard and the box score tell two very different stories. UNLV outgained Minneosta 419-320, yet the Gophers won a decisive 51-23 victory. The Gophers looked lost through the air as Philip Nelson completed only 10-22 for 99 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Nelson looked better on the ground, however, running 12 times for 83 yards and 2 TDs. David Cobb added 69 yards on 6 carries. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota did not allow big plays through the air, allowing only 226 yards and 2 TDs on 50 pass attempts while picking off 2. They got scorched on the ground however, as Shaquille Murray-Lawrence put up 108 yards on only 4 carries. Ultimately, Minnesota won this game primarily due to their taking advantage of their two interceptions. Minnesota plays the 'Cats on October 19th, and I really like Northwestern's chances. 80% likelihood of victory for the 'Cats. 
5. Iowa: Iowa lost to Northern Illinois this week, but, let's be clear: Northern Illinois is not a bad team. They were, in fact, a BCS bowl team last year. While the Huskies likely will not play at that level again this year, a loss to them is nothing to scoff at. I think Iowa is a better team than Minnesota, but I have them 5th due to a more difficult schedule. Sophomore Jake Ruddock saw his first ever game action in his start for the Hawkeyes and performed admirably. Despite his two interceptions, he looked poised and is a viable starter option for the Hawks. Mark Weisman also appears to be a perfectly serviceable starting running back, going for 100 yards on 20 carries. On the other side of the ball, Jordan Lynch essentially was the offense for the Huskies by himself, so it's tough to get a read on the Hawkeye defense so far. Iowa may be a tough team to beat, but I like the Wildcats against them, especially with the Fitz-factor. Northwestern with a 70% chance of victory.  
6. Michigan State: What to make of Michigan State... They're defense certainly looked good against Western Michigan, holding the Broncos to only 204 total yards and 11 yards on the ground. They also proved to be ball hawks, picking off three passes and recovering a fumble. But the MSU offense was straight-up bad. Andrew Maxwell was just terrible, going only 11/21 and 74 yards. Connor Cook was even worse going 6/16 for 42 yards. They had better luck on the ground as Jeremy Langford ran for 94 yards on 20 carries, but he's no Le'Veon Bell. It's very likely that MSU will improve, but based only on what I've seen so far from them, this is a very easy win for the 'Cats, so I will say 85% chance of victory for Northwestern.

As for Northwestern's non-conference games, I give us a 90% chance to beat Syracuse, a 95% chance to beat Western Michigan, and a 99% chance to beat Maine. For those of you scoring at home, that leaves Northwestern with a 3.13% chance of going undefeated in the regular season! 

My shoddy mathematical model projects us 9.3-2.7, leaving us with a most likely regular season record of 9-3. 

NU @ Cal Recap

Well, that game happened, and it felt like a typical Northwestern season opener. That is to say it made me feel terrible and great simultaneously--the peculiar ambivalence so characteristic of Northwestern fandom. Overall, however, I have concluded this game was more cause for optimism than pessimism, so let's get started on this recap, beginning with two wonderful highlight videos.

The first is from NU Highlights. It is a  fantastic collection of 'Cats-centered highlights, using WGN's commentary. Password is berkeley2013.


And now for something completely different from Glopknar (Warning: language).


With the highlights out of the way, let's go into a point-by-point breakdown of the game.

Injuries

Injuries may be the most-discussed aspect of this game. First, it became apparent that Venric Mark was not 100% when he did not appear on kick returns and had a very limited role in the run game. This affected both our special teams, including a kickoff return fumble, and our running game, although Treyvon Green stepped up more than adequately. Next, Colter got rocked on the first two plays from scrimmage, having to sit out the rest of the game, evidently with a concussion. Siemian was forced to play the rest of the game,  limiting the size of our workable playbook and severely affecting our gameplan. Backup, true fresman corner Matt Harris also went down with an unspecified injury on the opening kickoff. All three palyers are listed as day-to-day and appear on the week 2 depth chart (although Mark is not listed as the starting punt returner). That being said, it is unclear what role they actually will play against Syracuse. It may be a near-game time decision.

The most serious injury was that of Daniel Jones, who is out for the year with a knee injury. It's a huge shame because he was really settling into the role and looking like a good option at corner. Dwight White took over and struggled. He did look better as the game went on, but that's not saying too much. Hopefully, he'll be able to settle into the starting role for week 2 and beyond. If there is any silver lining to all this, Jones got injured early enough that he will almost certainly be able to receive a medical redshirt. 

This also seems to be a good place for me to address the flopping allegations leveled against our players. For those who missed it, Cal fans, coach Sonny Dykes, and even ESPN commentators all accused our players of faking injuries to slow the tempo of the Cal offense. Indeed, it did appear suspicious for three of our players to go down on three consecutive plays, so I will admit I was at first questioning the injuries' legitimacy. However, two players with "fake" injuries were Damien Proby and Chi Chi Ariguzo. Why would we handicap ourselves by forcing two of our most valuable players out of the game? The more logical answer to me is this: they had cramps or fatigue issues. Cal ran 99 plays against us Saturday; it is very reasonable that some of our players would have problems. A case may be made that our players could have made it off the field without stopping the game, and under normal circumstances, this would likely be true, but the pace of the offense was such that we could not even substitute out healthy players early in the game. The only way for our guys to get off the field was to go down. So when faced with the option of leaving injured or severely fatigued guys in the game, or having them go down and get checked on, it seems our team made the logical choice. 

Trevor Siemian

A lot was asked of Siemian in Colter's absence, and it became a tale of two halves for him. In the first half, he looked outstanding, accurately completing deep passes to the middle of the field with regularity. His biggest mistake, an interception, clearly came on a blown pass-interference call, and he missed few other passes. However, he seemed to be benefiting from the element of surprise, as the Cal defense had prepared for more of a rush attack, a benefit he did not have in the second half. In said second half, he looked more rattled, often throwing passes into coverage. He showed an unwillingness to check down to short receivers, an issue in a Northwestern offense that succeeds in large part due to a nickel and dime passing attack. That being said, if Colter is unable to start again, the gameplan will be more Siemian-oriented, and he is likely to look more comfortable. 

Treyvon Green

In Venric Mark's near-absence, Green was asked to be Northwestern's feature back, and, in that role, he looked like the player we all once hoped he could be. While not notably fast or electric, Green ran smart and ran hard, going between the tackles and shedding hits for a 16 carry, 129 yard, 2 TD day. This is likely not sustainable for him, but he looked like a legitimate second option to a healthy Venric, something I did not expect going into the season. 

Dan Vitale

Vitale's similarities to Dunsmore are truly uncanny, but I'm growing to be of the opinion that Vitale may end up being an even better player. Dan looked phenomenal and proved to be an extremely tough matchup for Cal, running good routes, showing good hands, and proving very difficult to bring down, on his way to a terrific 5 catch, 101 yard day. 

Christian Jones

Jones looked like a solid first option at receiver. He always seemed to be open in the middle of the field and simply outclassed the Cal secondary while using his size to his advantage en route to a 5 catch, 94 yard game. 

Tony Jones

Jones was very frustrating last year due to his tendency to drop passes. He looked much more sure handed this Saturday, adding 5 catches for 70 yards, including a very impressive touchdown grab. 

Rashad Lawrence

Rashad was, surprisingly, a non-factor in this game. Lawrence has tended to be a favorite receiver of Siemian's due to the fact that the two were high school teammates, but I don't think Rashad had a single target in the game (somebody please correct me if I'm wrong). At first, I thought he may have been injured, but I later noticed him in the highlights. Bizarre.

Offensive Line

We got our first look at this new, inexperienced offensive line, and I don't really have any complaints. They provided good protection for Trevor, allowing him to be sacked only once, while being hurried twice. Typically, he had a great deal of time to sit in the pocket. The 'Cats also usually had good lanes to run through. While there were a couple times Northwestern backs ran into a wall, this was not the norm. Overall, based on this very small sample size, the Northwestern line looks very comparable to last year's. 

Colin Ellis

What a game for Ellis. Wow. He was listed as ESPN's Big Ten defensive player of the week, and for good reason. Most people will notice his two interceptions returned for touchdowns, and, without a doubt, that's impressive, but what impressed me even more was his ability to diagnose plays and react. He was incredible at sniffing out screens and blowing them up. He certainly was not a disappointment in his first game as a starter. 

Pass Rush

I have mixed feelings about our pass rush in this game. Overall, I'm pretty happy with the defensive ends and not as happy with the tackles. The tackles typically failed to get a good push up the middle and it allowed Goff too solid of a pocket. On the other hand, our various ends gave trouble to their tackles all game. Tyler Scott looked like his old self; both Lowry and Gibson looked solid; and while Odenigbo may not yet be a fundamentally solid all-around DE, he was a very impressive outside pass rusher. All four ends tallied exactly one sack apiece in the game. 

Run Defense

At the very beginning of the game, the Northwestern run defense looked shaky to say the least, giving up a combined 55 yards on the first 3 plays. Things certainly settled down after that, allowing only 38 yards on the next 32 carries. Removing sacks from the equation, Cal still only picked up 62 yards on 36 carries following that first drive. Once the 'Cats defense found their footing, the Northwestern defense performed exceptionally well against the run. 

Pass Defense

The pass defense was another story. Goff did not look like a true freshman quarterback, completing 61% of his passes for 455 yards and 3 TDs. Quite simply, teams don't win many games when they allow that many yards. There is a silver lining we can take from this, however. First, the 'Cats grabbed 3 INTs. Granted, a couple of these were lucky, but it still showed an ability to take advantage of the opportunities given to them. Second, despite 455 being a heck of a lot of yards, that amounted to only 7.1 yards per attempt, which would have only been good enough for 70th in the country last year. Furthermore, the allowed QB rating of 126.75 would have only been good for 80th last year. On top of this, much of Cal's success came from exploiting Dwight White. While White may not be great this year, he will almost certainly be more comfortable in later games than he was this weekend. Finally, Cal is almost certainly the biggest passing threat Northwestern will face this entire season, so it's all an improvement from here.

Kicking Game

Brandon Williams looked very solid punting in this game, kicking relatively deep and allowing no return yards. I'll be very happy if we get that from him every week. Jeff Budzien looked like his typical, almost-boringly effective self, putting all three of his field goals and all five of his PATs dead center. Budzien also looked solid kicking off--perhaps even a step up from Flaherty.

The Commentators 

Just terrible. I don't watch many NU games on TV, as I typically attend them, but wow, now I really never want to. 

Bottom Line

Definitely more to like than to not like from this game. Northwestern played well, even if they had some cobwebs to shake free. Injuries were the biggest issue, and the state of the secondary does scare me a little bit, but it should scare our opponents even more that we could only unleash half our playbook, while lacking our two most electric offensive players, and we were still top 25 this week in yards per play. Look out folks, this will be an exciting year.