Wednesday, October 9, 2013

OSU @ Northwestern Recap

Man, there's a heck of a lot still going on in my head after that game, and the weekend as a whole. This was a weekend with more spirit than I had ever seen at Northwestern. It was a game against one of the best teams I'd seen the Wildcats play. It was quite possibly the best football I'd ever seen from Northwestern. It was far and away the most electric I've ever seen Ryan Field. Simply put, it was an intense weekend. And we were so, so close to a win. I'm having trouble putting my feelings into words, but I'll give it a shot.
I'll start with the negatives. This is a painful game to "what-if" about. Had we won this game we would not only be being discussed as one of the best teams in the Big Ten, we'd be in the discussion of best in the country, and would be considered a national championship contender. To even consider how close that came to being the case is almost mind-blowing. A win here would have been a program-definer, the kind of game that moves a team from the level of the good teams to the level of the great or even elite teams. One of these weeks, we'll get that win, but unfortunately this was not the time.
Now the positive: We held our own against one of the best teams in the country, and the nation watched. Let's be clear, this game was no fluke. We played very, very nearly at the level of the Buckeyes. We have a terrific team. On top of this, our game was the most watched game in the nation this week. Despite the loss, this was a game that got us a great deal of exposure and respect. The nation is beginning to realize we truly are a good team, and we're here to stay.
Now let me break down this homecoming, beginning with the weekend as a whole, then the game in particular.

Weekend Atmosphere

Mike and Mike: The first taste of this homecoming weekend came Friday when Mike and Mike's morning show broadcast from Deering Field. Full disclosure: I slept through it, but to my amazement, a number of people did not. To see a crowd of people lining up already joining in this ESPN-heavy homecoming at 5:00 AM was pretty a awesome sight, and a great way to start the weekend.
Pep Rally: Friday night was the homecoming pep rally, again on Deering Meadow. This was the most-attended homecoming pep rally Northwestern had held and was filled with some very excited alumni.
College Gameday: Wow, I was blown away here. I knew a number of students would attend, but I underestimated just how many and how early they would arrive. To my delight there was a very rowdy, purple crowd with some fantastic signs. And they did a great job of drowning out the few OSU fans who attended. It cast our university in a great light, and hopefully the huge success will convince ESPN to continue to attend some smaller venues in the future.
Student Section at the game: Ryan Field's student section holds 5000 people, and some students were still turned away. Northwestern has an undergraduate population of just over 8000. That means 60%+ of the student population attended this game. That is unheard of at NU, a place where I became accustomed to students not even knowing whether we were playing a game on a given weekend. On top of this, many of those 5000 students were waiting in line for seats during a severe thunderstorm. And during the game itself, the student section was absolutely rocking. Here's to hoping this becomes the new normal at NU.
Non-student seating: The one negative of the weekend atmosphere. Unfortunately, a large percentage of Ryan Field was filled by OSU fans. To an extent, this is understandable. After all, there are far more OSU alumni in Chicago than there are NU alumni. Still, it's a bit disappointing to see this happen even on our homecoming. On the plus side, however, the Northwestern faithful easily drowned out the Buckeye fans all game. The energy from even the non-student fans was something I had not before seen at Northwestern.

The Game

Trevor Siemian: Overall, Trevor had a very solid game. He completed 13 of 18 attempts for 245 yards and 2 TDs, looking good in passes in every range and even demonstrating some athleticism. I really only have two complaints about his play. First, he held on to the ball far too long, getting sacked five times. That simply cannot happen. Second, Siemian threw a very bad interception. I had been saying all year that Trevor's tendency to throw into coverage would come back to haunt him when facing good secondaries, and this came true. While he only really made one mistake, it was a costly one. Still, despite these complaints, Siemian performed quite well.
Kain Colter: OSU did a good job of defending the option, and, as a result, Colter struggles in the run game, going for only 16 yards on 8 carries. Regardless, he did get into the endzone. He performed well in the passing game, however, both as a quarterback and a receiver. As a quarterback, he primarily threw underneath all game, completing all 12 passes he attempted, but for only 98 yards. He also stayed in at receiver for most plays where Siemian lined up at QB. While he only recorded one catch, it went for a touchdown, and his lining up in the slot seemed to create coverage nightmares for the Buckeyes all game.
Venric Mark: Boy, it's good to have him back. While he still did not look quite 100% to me, he played a lot, and he did it well. Statistically speaking, his game was below last year's standards, running for only 60 yards on 17 carries, but he got those 60 yards in impressive fashion, as he broke tackles along with his usual shiftiness. I believe he will only get better in the run game in coming weeks. He also contributed well in the passing game, catching 4 passes (ironically, that's more than he ever caught in a game when he was a wide receiver). He took those catches for 43 yards, most coming on an extremely impressive 41 yard reception. He only took one kickoff return, but he took it for 38 yards. As he continues to get healthy, he should take on a bigger portion of the return game.
Green and Trumpy: These two saw their roles greatly reduced with the return of Venric, taking a combined 8 carries for 26 yards. I hope we will find a way to better incorporate them into the offense alongside Venric, as they provide a different look and can still be valuable to this offense.
Receivers: As was expected, Northwestern got a lot of receivers involved. OSU had little trouble locking down Northwestern's leading receivers, but the 'Cats simply offered too many looks, and, as a result, the NU quarterbacks had little trouble finding open receivers all game. Furthermore, these receivers did not record a single drop, a major accomplishment given last year's trend.
Jones and Jones: Christian and Tony were the primary objects of focus for the OSU secondary, and the Buckeyes limited their targets. Neither had a bad game, as Christian recorded 2 catches for 34 yards and Tony had 3 for 23. Their primary value in this game, however, was distracting the OSU secondary while other receivers went virtually unnoticed en route to big games.
Rashad Lawrence: As I expected, Lawrence had a breakout game. In fact, he more than doubled his previous single-game best for yardage, recording 8 catches for 149 yards. He looked sure-handed and elusive, looking like he had the talent to be a team's first receiver. Given that he's the 'Cat's third option, or maybe fourth when considering Vitale, this unit should continue to give secondaries fits all year.
Mike Jensen: With Venric back, Jensen may be no higher than Northwestern's 6th receiving threat, but he did not look like it. Jensen had a great game, finding the open holes in the OSU secondary and recording 2 catches for 37 yards. He also made a huge special teams play, blowing up punter Cameron Johnston on a fake punt.
Cameron Dickerson: I hope I'm making my point about how stacked Northwestern's receiving corps is. Dickerson, NU's 5th or 6th wide receiver option, and 7th or 8th receiving option overall, got involved in this game, getting free for a big touchdown catch.
Dan Vitale: Vitale had another solid game, catching 4 balls for 36 yards, including one in which he hurdled a defender for a first down. He also took his first career carry, but took it for only 2 yards.
The Defensive Line: I think it's safe to say our defensive line was the primary reason we lost this game. There were bright points, to be fair. Tyler Scott continues to impress, particularly in a play in which he got to Braxton Miller and forced, and recovered, a fumble. Ifeadi Odenigbo, too, has been successfully pressuring the quarterback, and was responsible for forcing Miller into a bad pass that went for an interception. However, there were significant problems with this line. Most notably, in Sean McEvilly's absence, the defensive tackles are struggling mightily, and the 'Cats have failed to get pressure up the middle. This resulted in Miller having far too long in the pocket, as well as Carlos Hyde finding holes up the middle too easily.
Run Defense: I touched on this with the defensive line, but the 'Cats are having major problems against the run, as Carlos Hyde ran for 168 yards and 3 touchdowns. I still think Northwestern has a great linebacker crew, but with the major push opponent offensive lines are being allowed, they're being thrown off their game. The Wildcats need to make a change, but, at this point, it's unclear what that should be. Loading the box leaves Northwestern's secondary understaffed, which is a problem given the Northwestern corners' inexperience.
Pass Defense: The secondary actually looked shockingly good in this game. Braxton Miller completed only 15 of 26 passes for 203 yards, while throwing an interception. This Northwestern secondary also held a team that was second in the nation in passing touchdowns to not a single score through the air. Dwight White and Matt Harris split time at corner and both did an admirable job. The future for this 'Cats secondary may be much brighter than I had feared.
Jeff Budzien: Back to being money with a 3-3 day.
Redzone Offense: Alongside defensive line play, this was the biggest reason NU failed to win this game. The 'Cats scored touchdowns on only 3 of their 6 redzone trips. The reason for this is two-fold. First, the option game was not working. Typically, Northwestern likes to use Colter in red zone situations, with the option. In these scenarios, Colter can either punch it in himself or pitch it out to a back. The Buckeye defense kept either option from being successful in this game. Second, with Colter's bread and butter taken away, Fitz and McCall turned to Siemian in the redzone. Siemian is most successful with the secondary spread deep, an option that is not available on a sub-20 yard field. The coaches need to work out a better redzone strategy. Personally, I'd like to see Vitale be a bigger part of the passing game near the goal line.
Officiating: The elephant in the room was the questionable spot on Colter's QB sneak. Initially, I thought Colter got it, and it seems the world agreed. However, I have now viewed the play an unhealthy number of times, and I am about 60% sure the right call was made. Kain finished with the ball slightly behind Ian Park, who was, at most, just beyond the marker. Besides, the referee who made the call had a substantially better view than did any camera. What bothers me more was Carlos Hyde's run being reviewed and called a touchdown. There was certainly not incontrovertible proof the ball crossed the plane. The Buckeyes most likely would have punched it in anyway, but, still, that's frustrating.

Bottom Line

Let me put this game into context. Northwestern's 2008 team was one of Northwestern's better teams in recent history. They lost to an OSU team not much better than this one 45-10. And it is no fluke this game was so close. This is a very good Northwestern team with the potential to still have a fantastic year. Sure there are some kinks to works out, but we have enough upside to compete with every other team we are left to face. In fact, I believe we are better than every team remaining on our schedule. However, our next toughest game is only three days away. Time to rebound and kick off the win streak that will lead us to a 13-1 season. 

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

OSU @ Northwestern Preview: A Breakdown of the Buckeyes

Who is Ohio State? 

This one probably goes without saying. The Ohio State University (Their official name. I prefer An Ohio State University) is a state university located in Columbus, Ohio, with an undergraduate population of around 43,000 (i.e. about 5 Northwesterns). Academically, US News & World Report has them at 52nd among national universities. 


How Did They Do Last Year?

Very well. The Buckeyes went 12-0, despite playing several very close games to inferior teams. They did not play in a bowl due to probation.


How About This Year?

A solid 5-0, including an impressive win against Wisconsin last week. 


Recent History Against Northwestern

The last time the two teams played was 2008, a 45-10 drubbing that still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. 2007 was even worse (58-7), as was 2006 (54-10). 2005 was 48-7. Northwestern's most recent victory came in 2004, a 33-27 win.


Coaching

Urban Meyer is serving his second year as OSU's head coach, after previously coaching at Florida, where he won two national championships. He is yet to lose at Ohio State. Tom Herman is on his second year as the Buckeyes' offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He was previously at Iowa State. Everett Withers and Luke Fickell are spending their second years as co-defensive coordinators. 

Ohio State Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Ohio State's pass offense has been led by quarterback Braxton Miller, as well backup Kenny Guiton while Miller was out with an injury. Miller will start this game, however. The Buckeye passing game has been a bit of a conundrum, as the team has not looked notably impressive when focusing on yards, at only 214 per game (88th nationally). Despite this, they are fifteenth best in the country in completion percentage, at 68.8% and second best in TDs, with 19. The Buckeyes have multiple talented receivers, but the targets will most heavily be towards junior Devin Smith and senior Corey Brown, each of whom already have five touchdown catches this year. Also look for the OSU running backs to get involved in the receiving game. Fortunately, Northwestern's linebackers are good at pass coverage, so the backs don't concern me too much. That being said, I am very concerned about the Wildcats' ability to cover all the OSU receiver options. Dwight White, or Harris if he gets the start, will need to step up big. Advantage: OSU.


Ohio State Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

I would argue OSU's biggest run threat is none other than the quarterback, Braxton Miller. Miller has already carried the ball 40 times in his effectively two games played, and he has done it successfully, putting up 165 yards. The Buckeyes are not lacking for other running options, however. Carlos Hyde is back from suspension and is a huge threat. Jordan Hall already has 427 yards and freshman Ezekiel Elliot is putting up 9.5 yards per carry. There is a ton of depth here and, despite Northwestern having a solid run defense, it is concerning. All in all, their 287 yards per game is good for 12th in the country and their 6.27 yards per carry is frightening.  Advantage: OSU

Ohio State Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Buckeye run defense has been very solid, allowing a measly 84.6 yards per game. That being said, I think this Northwestern offense is up to the challenge. Teyvon Green, Mike Trumpy, and Kain Colter have performed admirably, leading the 'Cats to 250 yards per game on the ground. But adding Venric Mark back into the mix gives the 'Cats an almost indescribable boost. Venric opens up the spread option, improving Colter in the process, while Green and Trumpy still provide a power thread. A Mark-led run offense would scare any defense in the country. Advantage: Northwestern

Ohio State Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

What if I were to tell you that Ohio State' pass defense will be the worst the 'Cats have faced yet this year? It may not strictly be true, but there is a case to be made for that position, and I can safely argue that the Buckeye's pass defense is a big step down from at least Western Michigan's. OSU's secondary looked very vulnerable last week, particularly to Jared Abbrederis, and I have a hunch they will have trouble finding an answer for the Wildcats' wealth of receivers. They will struggle to cover both Joneses, and I suspect Rashad Lawrence will return to relevance this week. Furthermore, starting safety Christian Bryant is out for the season with an ankle injury. While the Buckeye's have tremendous depth at the position, anyone they put on the field will be a step down. I like the Wildcats in this matchup. Advantage: Northwestern.


Ohio State Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Northwestern's special teams have not lived up to expectations. For one thing, Jeff Budzien has already missed twice as many field goals as he did last year. On the other side of the ball, it is hard to get a read on OSU kicker Drew Basil, as he has taken only three field goals on the year, but made all of them. In terms of punting, while Brandon Williams has been hit-or-miss, Northwestern's punt coverage has been quite good, limiting teams to less than 3 yards per return. OSU has been comparable, limiting teams to exactly 3 yards per return. Additionally, there is also only about a yard difference in yards per punt, in OSU's favor. OSU furthermore has a slim lead in average kick return: 23.9 to 22.6. The biggest gap is in punt returns. The Buckeyes' 13.83 blows NU's 6.0 (on only one return) out of the water. The question is: Will Venric handle punt returns? If he does, OSU has no advantage in the punt game. In fact, I would argue NU has an advantage, perhaps even a large one. If he does not, the battle goes to the Buckeyes. Advantage: Northwestern if Venric handles returns, OSU if he does not

Bottom Line

In this matchup, the offenses beat the defenses. I foresee both offenses moving the ball with relative ease. In the end, I believe Northwestern will keep it extremely close, due in part to an advantage in turnovers, but Northwestern loses a close one in heartbreaking fashion, with most of the blame going to offensive and defensive line play. Prediction: OSU 34 - NU 31.  
Here's to hoping I'm wrong. 



Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Week 5 Big Ten Breakdown



This is my week 5 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

  1. LW (1) Ohio State: There really is no debate here. The Buckeyes took care of business against Wisconsin, their top rival for the #1 Leaders Division spot. Braxton Miller quieted the people saying Guiton should maintain the starting position, as he had an excellent 4 TD game. As good as the Buckeyes looked, however, they looked susceptible to the passing game, as Jared Abbrederis had an insane receiving game. A big game from Northwestern's Joneses could cause some harm to OSU. I'm still giving the 'Cats only a 35% chance of victory. 
  2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Despite Wisconsin having lost two games already, they are still easily the #2 team in this division. Jared Abbrederis absolutely terrifies me in their matchup with NU. This Wisconsin team is a team that's just all-around solid. 50% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
  3. LW (3) Penn State: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
  4. LW (4) Illinois: The Illini took care of business against a poor Miami (OH) team. The RedHawks managed fewer than 100 yards through the air, while the Illini put up over 600 yards of total offense. It was an impressive victory, but it was against a very bad team, so I'm not taking too much from it. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
  5. LW (5) Indiana: The Hoosiers had a bye this week. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
  6. LW (6) Purdue: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. Purdue actually outgained Northern Illinois this week, and yet got steamrolled due to the Boilermakers turning the ball over 5 times. There is a very real chance Purdue will go winless in Big Ten play. Don't expect them to move out of this #6 spot for the rest of the year. 

Legends Division

  1. LW (1) Northwestern: Northwestern had a bye this week, and no one else did well enough to supplant them. Expect the 'Cats to only get better from here as top offensive weapon Venric Mark returns from injury. 
  2. LW (3) Nebraska: Nebraska did not play this week, but I still move them up to #2. This is for two reasons: First, I am thinking less and less of Michigan every week, and second, Nebraska has a very favorable schedule. Looking at this schedule, the worst I can see Nebraska doing this year is 8-4. That being said, while I feel they will finish at #2, I do not think they're the second best team in the division. I give NU a 70% chance of winning. 
  3. LW (4) Iowa: The Hawkeyes continue to exceed expectations, as they put a beatdown on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. They did this primarily through their defense, holding the Gophers to only 165 yards. On offense, Weisman continued to put on his best bulldozer imitation, and Rudock was, for the most part, impressively poised. The offense looks beatable, but is much better than assumed before the season started. I believe the game in Iowa City will be the toughest Legends Division matchup for Northwestern, but I still give the 'Cats a 60% chance of victory. 
  4. LW (2) Michigan: I'm dropping the Wolverines from 2nd to 4th, despite them not playing this week. I feel this requires some explanation. Quite simply, I've become convinced my placing the Wolverines as high as I had been was due to nothing but the framing effect. I have seen nothing to demonstrate the Wolverines are a good team, other than their preseason expectations. In fact, I've seen a lot to indicate they are a bad team. They still have enough talent to perhaps start looking like a much better team, and they are fortunate in that their toughest matchups are at the end of the year, but for right now, this is simply not a good team. 75% chance of Northwestern victory. 
  5.  LW (6) Michigan State: Michigan State did not play this week. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
  6. LW (5) Minnesota: Before their last game, many people were starting to think favorably of the Golden Gophers. Not anymore. Minnesota's offense looked utterly inept against the Hawkeyes. Granted, quarterback Philip Nelson was returning from an injury and probably will improve, but his improvement will not do enough to make this a good team. 85% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projections

Northwestern's likelihood of going undefeated takes a tiny drop to 3.00%. Still:
So you're telling me there's a chance


Our projected record remains at 9.35-2.65, leaving us with a most likely record of 9-3. 

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Week 4 Big Ten Breakdown



This is my week 4 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

  1. LW (1) Ohio State: It's getting very difficult to say whether OSU is better off with Braxton Miller or Kenny Guiton, as Guiton threw a ridiculous 6 TDs, albeit against a very bad Florida A&M. Regardless, this is a very good team with either QB. On defense as well, they were lights-out against the Rattlers, holding them to two first downs the entire game. This is a team without many obvious weaknesses, and it will be a tough game for the 'Cats. Even with all the x-factors in Northwestern's favor, I'm still giving the 'Cats only a 35% chance of victory. 
  2. LW (2)Wisconsin: Wisconsin faced another weak opponent this week, but at least it was an in-conference one, in Purdue. While quarterback Joel Stave had a relatively unimpressive game, the Badgers continued to do what they do best: run the ball. Both Melvin Gordon and James White exceeded 140 yards, while Corey Clement added 83 of his own. On top of this, they had another lock-down game defensively, and they sit at 6th nationally in total defense. This team does scare me, but they are far from unbeatable. If the 'Cats can muster the run defense I know they're capable of and can run a solid, well-balanced offense, they have a good chance to win. 50% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
  3. LW (4) Penn State: In a massive step down to number 3, we find Penn State. The Nittany Lions steam rolled Kent State en route to a 34-0 victory. The defense was solid. The 0 points and 190 yards allowed are testament to that. And the run game was impressive as well, as Akeel Lynch ran for 123 and Zach Zwinak got into the endzone three times. However, Christian Hackenberg struggled, completing only 13 of 35 passes against a team that gave up over 350 pass yards to Bowling Green. Penn State does not play Northwestern. 
  4. LW (5) Illinois: The Illini had a bye this week, so they move up due to Indiana's failings, not their own success. I still believe the Wildcats have an 85% chance of victory. 
  5. LW (3) Indiana: Before this week, the Hoosiers had promise, but yet again, Indiana pulled an Indiana. The Hoosiers continued to look good through the air in terms of yardage, throwing for 377 yards, but Nate Sudfeld threw three interceptions. On top of this, the Hoosiers got torched through the air and on the ground, allowing Mizzou 623 total yards. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
  6. LW (6) Purdue: Purdue is not very good. As already mentioned, they got steam rolled by the Badgers, particularly on the ground. But their offense was not any better. Rob Henry completed only half his passes for 135 yards, while the run game picked up only 45. Ugly. Purdue does not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

  1. LW (1) Northwestern: Northwestern continues to benefit from what is, overall, a very weak Legends Divison. The Wildcat's win against Maine was by no means a thing of beauty, but it never really felt in doubt. As a bonus, all signs are pointing to Venric Mark returning to the field against the Buckeyes. On top of the obvious benefit of having their best player on the field, the 'Cats playbook should open up significantly. Colter plus Mark is a scary combo for any defense. 
  2. LW (2) Michigan: Two weeks in a row, both Northwestern and Michigan have played sub-par games against inferior programs, but these scenarios do not feel similar. Northwestern fans are nervous simply because the 'Cats did not win by a large enough margin in either game. I would contend this is foolish. Michigan fans, on the other hand, are nervous with good reason, as their games against both Akron and UConn, two bad teams, both came down to the bitter end. On top of this, there simply was not much to like from this Wolverines team. Even Devin Gardner, the one player who I thought could almost single-handedly lead this offense, looked bad against the Huskies. I'm beginning to wonder if this is even a good team, and questioning my choice to have them at number 2. Regardless, they have enough talent and a high enough ceiling to stay at #2 for now. Regardless, I'm growing increasingly confident in a Wildcat victory. 65% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
  3. LW (3) Nebraska: Not a lot to gather from Nebraska this week as they took care of business, beating FCS South Dakota St. 59-20. The Huskers put up a huge amount of offense, but their 465 yards allowed does little to quiet the criticisms of their defense. As such, this week did little to change my opinion of the Huskers.  Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
  4. LW (5) Iowa: The Hawkeyes had easily the most impressive game in the Legends Division, doing something NU could not manage: steamrolling Western Michigan. Iowa destroyed the Broncos in every facet of the game, throwing well, passing well, and returning punts and interceptions for touchdowns. I wonder about the overall talent level of this team, and don't think they have a terribly high ceiling, but right now they look like a very solid, well-coached team. I'm worried this game is a major trap game candidate. I have to drop the Wildcats to a 70% chance of victory. 
  5.  LW (6) Minnesota: The Minnesota running game continued to look highly impressive against San Jose St., but they're essentially missing the entirety of their passing game with Philip Nelson sidelined due to injury, and with his status into the next few weeks uncertain, this is a big blow. The Gophers get their first real test against Iowa this week, and it should be a significant game to learn about both teams. As of right now, I don't see much to change my opinion about this game, so still: 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
  6. LW (4) Michigan State: The Spartans are a very interesting team. One of the best defenses and one of the worst offenses nationally. The old adage says defense wins championships, but not if this is the type of offensive production you're getting. Many fans were praising Connor Cook as the quarterback of the future for MSU, but he looked lost and even got pulled for Andrew Maxwell, who was terrible, in relief. Honestly, I don't care how good this defense is, with this kind of quarterback play, they're going to struggle badly in the Big Ten. 80% chance of Northwestern victory.

Projections

Northwestern's likelihood of going undefeated gets a slight raise this week, albeit only to 3.03%. Still, we get to see our old friend Lloyd, quite possibly for the last time.
So you're telling me there's a chance


While being undefeated would certainly be nice, my model now has us at 9.35-2.65, slightly up from last week, but still leaving us with a most likely record of 9-3. 

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Week 3 Big Ten Breakdown



This is my week 3 take on the Big 10 as a whole, ranking them by where I foresee them finishing the season, and for teams that play NU, giving our likelihood of beating them.

Leaders Division

  1. LW (1) Ohio State: OSU further solidified their top position this week a 52-34 victory over Cal, and, surprisingly, they are the only remaining undefeated team in the Leaders Divison. The Buckeyes are not struggling without star quarterback Braxton Miller, as backup Kenny Guiton has performed outstandingly. In this game he threw for 4 TDs and no interceptions. The running game has been impressive as well, with both running back Jordan Hall and Guiton leading this attack, resulting in 332 rush yards against the Bears. You know Urban Meyer is not happy with the 34 points allowed, and indeed this Buckeyes defense does not seem on par with the offense. Nonetheless, Ohio State is still easily the most impressive team in the Big Ten. at the moment, I'm not a huge fan of the 'Cats chances here, but we still have a shot. I'm giving the 'Cats a 35% chance of victory. 
  2. LW (2)Wisconsin: The Badgers lost to Arizona St. last week, but I'm not holding it too much against them. The Sun Devils are a good team, and the Badgers got absolutely no love from the referees. That being said, the Wisconsin defense showed weakness this week, giving up over 350 yards through the air. The Badger run game continues to look good, however, as Melvin Gordon ran for almost 200 yards. I wish the Wildcats got the Badgers at home, but I still like this matchup. 55% chance of victory for Northwestern. 
  3. LW (3) Indiana: I'm moving Indiana back into the 3-spot this week, as I believe the week 2 loss to Navy was a fluke. While the Hoosiers' defense is suspect, they have the offense to compete in the Big Ten. Both their pass offense and QB rating, led by quarterback Nate Sudfeld, have Indiana at 11th in the country through these three weeks. On top of this, their run offense is far from weak, putting up 232 yards per game. This Hoosier offesnse is powerful enough to surprise a few teams. Indiana does not play Northwestern.
  4. LW (3) Penn State: The Nittany Lions drop a spot after an upset loss to Central Florida. While PSU got their offense going, with an impressive 262 yard game from Christian Hackenberg and 128 rush yards and three touchdowns from running back Zach Zwinack, it wasn't enough, as the Knights outgained and outscored the Lions. The Nittany Lions do not play Northwestern. 
  5. LW (6) Illinois: Some will argue that Illinois deserves to be ranked higher after playing a good Washington team tight. I, on the other hand, point to total offense. The Illini got almost doubled up in the game, getting outgained 615-327. The fact that this game was as close as it is is more a fluke than anything, as this Illinois team is weak against both the pass and the run. I'm leaving the 'Cats with an 85% chance of victory. 
  6. LW (5) Purdue: Despite the loss, Purdue managed to redeem themselves somewhat this week, playing a very close game against Notre Dame. Whether Notre Dame is actually a good team remains to be seen, but the Boilermakers certainly looked better than they have in recent weeks. They remain one of the worst running teams in college football, but Rob Henry looked adequate at quarterback. All things considered, however, despite saving face last week, they appear to be the worst team in the Big Ten by a decent margin. Purdue does not play Northwestern. 

Legends Division

  1. LW (2) Northwestern: I can't believe I'm doing this after a weak performance by the Wildcats, but Northwestern appears to be the best team in the Legends division. This is a good team that can do enough to win easily against poor teams even with a sub-par performance, and they've been doing it without star running back Venric Mark. Michigan may again be able to oust them if the Wolverines recover strong this week, but for now, this spot belongs to the Wildcats. 
  2. LW (1) Michigan: There was almost nothing to like about Michigan this week as they very nearly got upset by a truly awful Akron team. While Gardner looked good on the ground, running for over 100 yards, he looked less good as a passer, showing his questionable decision making en route to three interceptions. On top of this, Gardner appears to be the Wolverines' only legitimate running threat, as Fitzgerald Toussaint has been unable to muster even 4 yards per carry on the ground. The defense also looks suspect, giving up over 300 pass yards to a player who could not record 300 against UCF and James Madison combined. This is a team that will live or die with Devin Gardner, and because he is a talented player, they scare me a bit, but I still think Northwestern is the better team. 55% chance of victory. 
  3. LW (3) Nebraska: Nebraska's defense is showing no signs of being able to fix itself as the Cornhuskers gave up 38 unanswered points to UCLA. On top of this, the Cornhuskers organization is now in turmoil as some ill-advised comments from coach Bo Pelini have come to light. There's no doubt that Martinez and Abdullah are talented players, and this Nebraska offense is very capable of putting up points, but the simple fact is this: if this defense remains as porous as it has been, and if Nebraska cannot get past this recent controversy, Nebraska will be no better than a third wheel to Northwestern and Michigan at the top of the division standings. Northwestern has a 70% chance of winning. 
  4. LW (6) Michigan State: Many people are very high on the Spartans right now, due to the fact that the Spartans finally had a solid offensive performance. MSU put up 547 yards, and Connor Cook looked like the quarterback they desperately need. But let's slow down for a minute; they were playing the Penguins. I'm not yet sold on the MSU offense, but I moved them up this week anyways due to the Spartan defense. Their 177 ypg allowed is the best in the entirety of the FBS--they appear to be for real. Even if this offense doesn't click, the defense is good enough to potentially win the Spartans a lot of games. I'm dropping the Wildcats to a 70% chance of victory. 
  5.  LW (5) Iowa: How good of a story is Mark Weisman. The former transfer walk-on is nearly single-handedly leading the Hawkeye offense. His 85 rush attempts leads the nation by 10 carries. Despite Weisman's contributions, however, and despite Iowa's victory to Iowa State, this still does not look like a great team. They may be able to squeak by in a few more games, but for right now, they're just not great. 80% chance of Northwestern victory. 
  6. LW (4) Minnesota: The Gophers are here do more to uncertainty than incompetence. Starting quarterback Philip Nelson, a huge part of Minnesota's offense, suffered an injury last week. If the Gophers play well without him, or if he manages to return, I will probably move them back up, but for right now, I assume he will not play, and they will struggle without him. 80% chance of Northwestern victory.
In our final non-conference game against Maine, I'd be utterly shocked if we lost. 99.5% chance to beat the Black Bears. This all results in Northwestern having a 2.80% chance of going undefeated, actually down from 3.90% a week ago. Still...
So you're telling me there's a chance


My shoddy mathematical model now projects us 9.30-2.70, leaving us with a most likely regular season record of 9-3. 

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Western Michigan @ Northwestern Recap

Well, the game wasn't pretty, but we got the win. The offense was sloppy, the defense looked weak, and there was no energy. Yet we still won by 21. How should we take that? Let's give it a point by point look.

Kain Colter

Colter started this game very poorly, throwing an interception on a play that was, in short, a mess. He made a bad read and a bad throw into double coverage, giving Dan Vitale no chance to make a play. He was not asked to do much in the passing game after that, throwing for only six more passes. That being siad, he completed all of them, and threw a TD, but only picked up 40 yards. He looked better in the run game, making guys miss, shedding tackles, and showing his signature speed, resulting in 106 yards and a TD on 15 carries. 

Trevor Siemian

Trevor wasn't bad in this game, but he was less sharp than last week. His decision making, while not awful, was at times suspect, and his accuracy was at times off, most notably on a pass that got Christian Jones lit up. Furthermore, he was not asked to do all that much, throwing only 14 passes. All things considered, however, he was adequate. He completed a solid 64% of his passes for 99 yards and did not turn the ball over.

Treyvon Green

Another very good game for Treyvon. Given the uncertainty of Venric's health moving forward, this is certainly encouraging. Green demonstrated a nice package of quickness, speed, and especially power, hitting holes hard, breaking tackles, and pushing the pile. In the process, he picked up 158 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries. While the team is unquestionably weaker without Venric, Treyvon certainly is a solid starter in his absence.

Mike Trumpy

Trumpy continues to look like a decent backup option, as he rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown on 8 carries, including a nice 14 yard, outside the tackle run. 

Warren Long

Long was the talk of the week as the news broke that he may be burning his redshirt this week, and, in fact, his redshirt was burned. This decision is still somewhat confusing and concerning to me, as we have several other running back options. It  makes me question whether Venric's health is worse than commonly presumed. That being said, Long looked good in his very limited time, including a very impressive 13 yard run. Here's to hoping the redshirt was burned due solely to the fact that he is too good to keep on the bench. 

Tony Jones

Solid game for Tony, but not nearly as impressive as the last, putting up 38 yards on 4 catches. 

Dan Vitale

Not much of a performance for Vitale as he only caught one pass, a 4 yard shovel pass from Colter. Dunsmore 2.0 watch: Sophomore Dunsmore has surpassed Vitale. At this point of his sophomore year, Dunsmore had 4 more catches, 15 more yards, and as many TDs as Vitale currently has this year. 

Rashad Lawrence

Lawrence again oddly faded into obscurity, making no catches this week, after his solid performance last week. 

Christian Jones

Christian led the team in receiving this week, catching 5 passes and recording 60 yards, while also catching the team's only TD pass. He did a good job of shaking off an early injury and looked impressive after. 

Kyle Prater

Oof, ugly. Caught only one pass for two yards, and fumbled on the play. I think it's getting safe to assume he's never going to live up to the hype, but I owuld be delighted to be proven wrong. 

Pass Defense

This was kind of a mixed bag. The 'Cats allowed the Broncos to catch fewer than 50% of their passes and allowed just over 200 yards, both very impressive statistics for Northwestern. However, the corners, particularly Dwight White, looked shaky. White got burned on a simple go route for a 75 yard TD. This is highly concerning as we approach Big Ten season. Northwestern also recorded only one interception, whereas I expected more. On the plus side, however, the interception was recorded by Ibraeheim Campbell, and marked his fifth consecutive game with a pick
. 

Rush Defense

Also kind of a mixed bag. Tyler Van Tubbergren, not a running quarterback, managed 33 yards on the ground. Running back Brian Fields also managed a fairly solid game with 79 yards on only 13 carries. On the other hand, co-starter Dareyon Chance managed only 30 yards on 11 carries. All things considered, however, you have to assume the coaches expect more from this run defense. 

Jeff Budzien

Budzien is perfect no more after missing a 42 yarder. The occasional missed 40+ yarder is to be expected however, and Budzien is still a very good kicker. 

Punt/Kick Returns

We still don't have a punt return, but Matt Harris may be the kick returner we badly need, as he put up an impressive 47 yard return.

Bottom Line

I don't think any fan is going to call this the most encouraging win we've ever had, but there are both optimistic and pessimistic ways to look at it. I'm leaning towards the optimistic view. Alright, fine, the team played poorly and lackadaisically, but we won by 21 points. This is key. If we were to talk to Northwestern fans from just a few years back and complain about our three touchdown win, they'd look at us like we're crazy. Sure, we were playing a bad team, but games like the 2009 EMU 3-point victory come to mind. Heck, the game we perceived as a blowout against Rice in 2010 was a 17-point victory. The fact is, being able to win by 21 while playing well below average is the mark of a good team. Besides, the simple fact is, Fitz-coached teams do not tend to look as impressive against weak opponents. Certain coaches (e.g. Bret Bielema) seem to inspire their players to come out at their best against weak opponents. Fitz is not one of those guys, for good or for bad. Simply put, I recommend not reading too much into this game and just being happy with this win. 

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Western Michigan @ NU: A Breakdown of the Broncos

Who is Western Michigan? 

Western Michigan University is a public university in Kalamazoo, MI with an undergraduate population of around 20,000. In terms of education, US News and World Report ranks them at 181st among national universities. Their athletic teams, called "The Broncos,"  play in the Mid-American Conference.


How Did They Do Last Year?

Poorly. They went 4-8 with wins against Eastern Illinois, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Central Michigan.


How About This Year?

Not any better. The Broncos are 0-2 with a loss to lowly Nicholls St. last week. 


Recent History Against Northwestern

These two teams have never played.


Coaching

32 year-old P.J. Fleck is serving his first year as Broncos head coach. He is currently the youngest coach in the FBS. Most recently prior to accepting this job, Fleck served as a wide receivers coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Fleck took over after the firing of Bill Cubit follosing last season.
Stepping in at offensive coordinator is Kirk Ciarrocca, who previously was a running backs coach at Delaware. Defensive duties belong to Ed Pinkham, who is in his first year after leaving the same position at Elon. 

Western Michigan Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

Western Michigan's pass offense has been very bad, falling to 109th in the nation in yards per attempt. Senior starting quarterback Tyler Van Tubbergen has struggled mightily, failing to complete even 50% of his passes, while not yet throwing a touchdown. On top of this, he has only gone for 327 yards and has thrown four interceptions. Freshman backup Zach Terrell, has completed barely over 40% of his passes, but at least has gotten the ball into the endzone twice. He has however, added an interception. Northwestern, who currently is at the top of the interception rankings nationally, has a good chance to add even more this week. The Broncos' go-to receiver as of now is true freshman Corey Davis, a 2-star prospect whose only other offer came from Illinois State. This is not the kind of guy you want to have to count on. Regardless, he has twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team, with 16. Sophomore Timmy Keith has added eight receptions of his own, but beyond this, the threat from wide receivers drops substantially. Only one other wideout, sophomore Courtney Bynes has recorded even a single catch. Leading receiver from last year, Jaime Wilson, has been suffering from an injury and is questionable for this game. Three other guys to keep an eye on in the receiving game are tight end Clark Mussman, running back Brian Fields, and running back Dareyon Chance, all seniors. Overall, this is not an intimidating bunch at all. Advantage: Northwestern


Syracuse Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Offense

The Bronco rush attack has not been much better than their passing game, running for only 121 yards per game. There are only two guys who I expect to contribute here, Brian Fields and Dareyon Chance, and they are likely to share the load approximately equally. Fields has been a contributor for the Broncos for all four of his years at the school, yet he has already tied his career high in touchdowns with 3. This season, he has carried the ball 31 times for 127 yards, giving him 4.1 yards per carry, somewhat below his 5.3 from last season. Chance burst on to the scene last year, taking over as a feature back. He carried the ball 176 times for 947 yards and four touchdowns. His 5.38 yards per carry has dropped only slightly to 5.08 this year, as he has carried the ball 26 times for 132 yards. All in all, Chance and Fields are both competent running backs, but the Northwestern run defense is stifling, and I don't expect much from either of them.  Advantage: Northwestern

Western Michigan Rush Defense vs. NU Rush Offense

First, I should acknowledge that Venric is listed as questionable for this game, but I will be very, very surprised if he plays. Therefore, our primary run threats will be Colter, Green, and Trumpy, with a little Buckley, Malin Jones, and maybe even true freshman Warren Long, who is potentially due to have his redshirt burned. While it would be nice to have Mark here, I have total faith in the guys we will have on the field. Besides, the Broncos run defense is poor. They have given up 201.5 yards per game and got torched by a running quarterback in their last matchup Advantage: Northwestern

Western Michigan Pass Defense vs. Northwestern Pass Offense

The Northwestern pass offense is looking to be a huge improvement from last year, with Siemian playing fantastically and even Colter looking quite good. The 'Cats are getting lots of receivers involved, and each receiver is performing admirably. The Broncos pass defense is yet to give up many yards, nor have they allowed a touchdown pass, but the Northwestern passing game is orders of magnitude better than Michigan State's or Nicholls State's.  We will be seeing Western Michigan's pass yards allowed per game (currently 170) skyrocket. Advantage: Northwestern.


Western Michigan Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

I have been singing the praises of Northwestern's special teams and, to an extent, they've been making me look foolish. Without Venric, we are yet to return a punt and our kick returning is mediocre. These aspects will improve with Mark's return, but until then, I don't expect much.  The Broncos have been pretty average on kick returns, and a bit better than NU, with 22.5 yards per return. Their 2 yards per punt return, however, is among the worst in the nation (but at least they have a punt return!). The kicking game is another story. Jeff Budzien continues to be perfect and allegedly nailed a 70 yarder (?!) during practice. He, along with the rest of the kickoff unit, has also been good in that duty, as NU is a top 20 team in kickoff return yardage allowed. The Broncos' kicker, Andrew Haldemen, has taken, and made, only one kick on the year. They are a pretty average team in terms of kickoff return yardage allowed. Northwestern punter Brandon Williams has been somewhat subpar in punt average, at 39.22 yards per punt, but the 'Cats' .5 yards per return allowed is top 10 in the country. Western Michigan's punter J. Schroeder (J. appears to be his name, no joke) is actually punting quite well at over 44 yards per punt, but the Broncos are allowing over 9 yards per return. Overall, I'm less satisfied with NU's special teams than I'd like to be, but I still give this matchup to the 'Cats, mostly due to Budzien. Advantage: Northwestern

Bottom Line

This should be an easy game for the 'Cats, as they are the better program across the board. I see Northwestern getting off to a very early lead, but slowing later as starters leave the game. In fact, I will be somewhat surprised to see our key players play much at all in the second half. If the starters played all game, 60-70 points would certainly be within reach for the 'Cats. instead, I'm going with the following: Prediction: Northwestern 41 - Western Michigan 13.