Saturday, August 31, 2013

Northwestern @ Cal Preview: Getting to Know Cal

Cal Last Year

Last year Cal finished a very disappointing 3-9 (2-7). They got a big upset win against UCLA, but, otherwise, they did not look good, including a 62-14 loss to Oregon St. 

Coaches

Cal has a new head coach this year, which they no doubt hope will turn around their fortunes. Former Louisiana Tech coach Sonny Dykes steps in to replace Jeff Tedford. It is safe to call Dykes an offense-minded coach. Last year, his pass-heavy Louisiana Tech finished first in the country in both scoring offense and yardage. Coming in with Dykes is former LA Tech offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, so their offense, now dubbed the "Bear Raid," should be in full force. Dykes is less impressive, to say the least, as a defensive coach. LA Tech's 526.1 yards allowed per game was dead last in the country. Former linebackers coach of Wisconsin Andy Buh will be taking over as Cal's defensive coordinator and will no doubt try to improve on Dykes's defensive history. 

Cal Pass Offense vs. NU Pass Defense

As previously noted, the Bear Raid is an impressive, pass-heavy offense. Last year, Cal finished a mediocre 89th in pass offense. Last year's numbers have very little bearing on Cal's new look however, and LA Tech's numbers (second best pass offense nationally) may be more relevant. The good news for Northwestern is that Cal is relying on true freshman Jared Goff to run his offense. Also, Goff does not have a solid line to protect him. An inexperienced line steps up to replace last year's, which allowed a terrible 40 sacks last year. In terms of wide receiver, Cal has a young, but very talented unit. Overall, I'm not sure the Northwestern secondary marches up well against these receivers. Daniel Jones in particular will be tested. On the other hand, I like Northwestern's ability to get to Goff and get him rattled, probably forcing him into some mistakes. Still, I have to give this matchup to the Bears.

Cal Rush Offense vs. NU Rush Defense

While the Bear Raid is pass-focused, it does not ignore the run. Cal had a decent 183 rush yards per game last year, but LA Tech was more impressive with 227 rush yards per game. Most of the running duties this year will go to junior Brendan Bigelow, who is, without a doubt, impressive. That being said, he has to run behind an inexperienced line against a very solid Northwestern linebacking crew. Northwestern wins this matchup. 

Cal Pass Defense vs. NU Pass Offense 

Cal's Pass defense was unimpressive last year, allowing  272 yards per game, but LA Tech's was even worse, allowing a stunning NCAA-worst 340 per game last year. Cal breaks out a new, inexperienced secondary however, and time will only tell if that's good or bad. Still, I do not expect much out of this pass defense. I would not be surprised to see Northwestern use Siemian a lot to take advantage of this today. Although I think even Colter could be successful passing against this defense. Advantage easily goes to Northwestern. 

Cal Rush Defense vs NU Rush Defense

Cal allowed a pretty average 169 rush yards per game last year, while Lousiana Tech allowed a slightly worse 186. The Cal linebacking crew is also inexperienced, and it is shifting from a 3-4 look to a 4-3. It is difficult to predict what this means for their rush defense. Advantage still, without a doubt, goes to Colter, Mark, and the rest of the Northwestern offense. 

Cal Special Teams vs NU Special Teams

Senior Vince D'Amato returns as Cal's kicker. He made only 16 of 23 field goals and 30 of 33 extra point, last year. He is clearly outmatched by Budzien. Cole Leninger returns as Cal's punter. He performed comparably to Brandon Williams. Chris Harper gets his first go as Cal's punt returner while Bryce Treggs takes over at kick returner. While I am unsure at how either will perform, it's safe to say neither will be Venric-caliber. Overall special teams advantage is Northwestern by a large margin. 

Overall Outlook

Cal has a few things going for them. A new coach has revitalized fans' hopes for this program, and there is no doubt he utilizes an impressive offense. The west coast, Pacific Time aspect could also be an x-factor for Cal. However, Northwestern simply outmatches them. We bring in an impressive rush offense that Cal simply should be unable to contain. I expect this to be a high-scoring game, but NU wins by double digits. 

Friday, August 30, 2013

Northwestern 2013 Football Preview: The Special Teams

Yesterday I had to talk about Northwestern's most disappointing unit; today I get to talk about perhaps its most exciting: special teams. Just a few years ago, the Cats' special teams were an embarrassment. Punts were regularly shanked, field goals were a difficulty, and muffed punts were almost the norm. Fortunately, that has changed in a big way, and the Wildcat special teams are some of the best in the nation.

Last Year

Venric Mark: I can count the players who were as electrifying as Mark in punt returns last year on one hand. Teams tended not to punt to him, as he was allowed only 1.2 returns per game, but when he did get a return, he was always a threat to make a big play. His 18.67 yards per return were second best in the country, while his two TDs were second most. He was the only player in the country to score at least two touchdowns with at least a 17 yard per return average. Unfortunately, his kickoff returns were far more mediocre, averaging only 19.81 yards per return (100th in the country), with no touchdowns. 
Jeff Budzien: Budzien was almost unreal last year in the kicking game. His 19 of 20 field goals gave him the 3rd best make percentage in the country. On top of this, he made all 50 extra points he took, one of only ten players to take at least 50 PATs and never miss. His range was somewhat limited, but within 50 yards, he was almost automatic. 
Steve Flaherty: Due in part to Budzien's limited range, Flaherty handled kickoffs last year. He was serviceable but not great, averaging 59.73 yards per kickoff, 94th in the country. His 19.28% touchback percentage was 100th. To his credit, he was good at keeping the ball in play, never kicking it out of bounds. 
Brandon Williams: Williams punted decently but inconsistently. He seemed equally likely to shank or bomb a punt in any given situation, eventually resulting in a 39.91 punt average. Most valuable about his performance was that other teams typically had very little success in the punt return game. Williams also served as Budzien's holder in field goal and PAT situations, and did so well. 
Pat Hickey: Hickey served as the long snapper. His value is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify, but he performed with no noticeable flaws.

This Year

All aforementioned players except Flaherty return. Venric Mark should keep doing what he's been doing. He's been a successful punt return man since his freshman year, so that is probably not going to change. However, his kickoff return stats have been steadily declining every year. Hopefully the 'Cats can reverse that trend.
Budzien has evidently improved his leg strength in the offseason and kept his accuracy. Hopefully that results in increased range for this season. Interestingly, there is no kickoff starter listed on the depth chart, so it is very likely Budzien will be taking on this role as well. The added leg strength would be useful there too.
Williams is again the punter. His stats have not changed much over his three years starting, so it is unlikely we'll see much difference this year.

Is this an improvement? 

I have to say no. I don't say this because I think the unit will be getting notably worse; in fact, I still think it will be one of the best special teams units in the country. Instead, I think the 'Cats were so good last year, simple probability indicates they probably won't be able to repeat that kind of year. Nonetheless, the unit, particularly Mark and Budzien, should still be spectacular. 

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Northwestern 2013 Football Previews: The Secondary

In recent years, Northwestern's secondary has easily been it's most disappointing unit, failing to finish in the top half of the country in pass defense since 2006. Of course, the 'Cats' 6.6 yards per pass attempt allowed last year is a big improvement from their 112th-ranked 8.5 the year before, but there is still a great deal of room for improvement. Question is: Will this be the year?

Last year

Nick VanHoose started at one corner spot last year as a redshirt freshman and was easily Northwestern's most impressive corner. He proved effective at covering his man and getting to the ball, recording three interceptions, and breaking up seven passes. Unfortunately, he missed three games due to injury, but when he was on the field, he did a good job of locking down his side. 
Daniel Jones, a sophomore, recorded the second most starts among NU corners, with seven. He did not see his first start until the Minnesota game in week 7 and initially looked a little shaky, but he noticeably improved as the year went on. He broke up a decent 4 passes for the season. 
Demetrius Dugar started six games last year as a senior and, quite frankly, was not good. He often looked lost covering his man and tended to be a liability. His bright point of the year was an interception recorded against Michigan.
Quinn Evans transferred from Stanford before his senior year and started three games. He too looked unimpressive, breaking up only three passes on the year.
Ibraheim Campbell, only a sophomore last year, was one of Northwestern's best players. He was very good at stepping up and being a factor in the run game, appearing, at times, like a fourth linebacker. However, he was even more impressive in the pass game. In terms of not getting beat deep, he was elite level, and he recorded a very impressive 12 pass breakups, as well as two interceptions. 
Davion Fleming started game one at the other safety spot in his junior year, but looked unimpressive and was quickly relegated to special teams. 
Jared Carpenter started the remaining 12 games in his senior year, and, while not elite-caliber, played well, including an MVP selection for the Gator Bowl, to even his own surprise. 
Traveon Henry impressed the coaches and contributed at safety as a true freshman. However, he looked a bit raw at the safety position, performing significantly more impressively on special teams. 

This year

VanHoose and Campbell return to their spots on the defense and, with an added year of experience, should be very good in their roles. 
Daniel Jones is listed as the starting corner opposite VanHoose. As previously noted, he visibly improved as last year went on, and all signs indicate that he has further improved this offseason. He should be an at least competent starter. 
Junior C.J. Bryant is listed as VanHoose's backup. He played some as a reserve last year, but not enough to get a read on his ability. The fact that he did not jump Dugar or Evans is somewhat telling, however. He is likely to also play nickel back this year. 
Freshman Dwight White gets the other backup spot, and he intrigues me. He has apparently been impressive in camp, challenging Jones for the starter spot, but he was largely overlooked in recruitment, only getting an offer after NU saw him in person. Only time will tell if NU's faith in him will pan out. 
If Jones, Bryant and White all struggle, it is possible that Fitz could burn the redshirt of Matthew Harris, who has reportedly looked very impressive. 
Starting at the other safety spot opposite Campbell is Traveon Henry. Hopefully he will look more comfortable at his position this year and will be able to utilize his incredible athleticism effectively. 
Backing up Henry is junior Jimmy Hall, who has contributed primarily on special teams and as nickel back in the past. 
Two potential backups are listed for Campbell. The first is Fleming, but I think he is unlikely to see much playtime. The other option is freshman Terrance Brown. Overall, these are unimpressive options, but thankfully, if Campbell stays healthy, we won't have to see much of them

Is this an improvement?

Yes, but not a huge one. Technically, we have two returners starting at corner, but Jones never really felt like a starter last year, as the corner spot opposite VanHoose was in constant turmoil. That being said, corners at Northwestern have traditionally looked better in their second years, and if that trend continues, the corner position should be much more solid than last year. 
Losing Carpenter hurts, but Henry has enormous upside. The question is if he can convert this potential into actual solid play. I think he will be competent but a step down from Carpenter. This step down, however, should be more than outweighed by the other improvements. 

Northwestern 2013 Football Preview: The Linebackers

Going into last year, many Northwestern fans believed the linebacking crew may be Northwestern's best unit; however, they were largely overlooked and underrated by the national media. Fortunately, the Northwestern fans' hopes were justified, as the linebackers played exceptionally well, having a big hand in Northwestern's 22nd-ranked rush defense. This year appears to be another good year at the position. 

Last Year

David Nwabuisi: The 5th year senior started all 13 games at weak-side (Will) linebacker and performed in his typical exceptional fashion. His 62 solo tackles were 5th most in the Big Ten, and he added 3 interceptions, one returned for a touchdown. He performed consistently all year, never recording fewer than 4 tackles in a game. However, two games really stood out: his 15 tackle performance against Penn St. and his incredible 18 tackle performance against Iowa.
Damien Proby: In his junior year, Proby started all 13 games at middle (Mike) linebacker. While not as consistent as Nwabuisi was, Proby had some incredible performances, including five games with 12 or more tackles. On the year, he finished 5th in the Big Ten in total tackles, with 112, and his 74 solo tackles were best in the conference. He also was capable of making plays in the backfield, recording 4.5 tackles for loss. 
Chi Chi Ariguzo: While only a sophomore, he was arguably the most impressive player on the line. Ariguzo started all 13 games at strong-side (Sam) linebacker, and recorded 91 tackles, 15th in the Big Ten. His value, however, cannot be measured solely by his total tackles. He was exceptional at making plays in the backfield, recording 10.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks (both 5th most among Big Ten linebackers). On top of this, he was a ball hawk, as he had two interceptions and his four fumble recoveries tied the Big Ten lead.
The Backups: When the aforementioned guys were not on the field, backup duty was almost entirely performed by freshman Drew Smith and sophomore Collin Ellis. As backups, neither had eye-popping stats, but both were quite serviceable reserves. Smith had the slightly more impressive year statistically, recording 17 tackles and two sacks. 

This Year

Damien Proby stays in the middle linebacker spot, so expect more of the same there. 
Ariguzo is moving from the Sam to the Will. This makes sense as the Will is typically the more athletic of the two outside linebacker positions, in part due to the fact that the Will is more often tasked with guarding slot receivers. 
Filling the Sam position will be Ellis. He was in competition with Smith during the offseason, but he has apparently impressed and has won the starter role, at least for week one. 
While Smith is not starting, I expect him to see the field quite a bit. I assumed he would be listed as Ellis's starter, as Ellis will likely see the leastplay time among starters, but he is instead listed as Ariguzo's. Despite this, I expect him to fill in at all three positions. 
Senior Timmy Vernon and freshman Jaylen Prater are both listed as potential backups to Proby. Vernon has primarily been a special teams player throughout his career, and that will almost certainly be his primary contribution this year as well. Prater, a 2-star recruit who redshirted last year, likely won't see much time at linebacker either. 
Redshirt freshman Joseph Jones is listed as Ellis's starter, and he's a pretty intriguing player. Virtually no one expected him to play linebacker in college, as his size and track-star athleticism make him appear more like a safety. Regardless, he's listed at linebacker, and only time will tell how he'll perform and how much he'll play. 

Is this an improvement? 

I'm calling it a wash. Losing Nwabuisi hurts, and I don't think either Ellis or Smith will perform quite at his level, but I think Ariguzo's and Proby's extra year of experience should make up for it. 

Friday, August 23, 2013

2013 Northwestern Football Preview: The Defensive Line

Many observers last year were very high on the Northwestern defensive line. Tyler Scott was a star, and there was a lot of good young talent in the rotation. I am similarly excited about this year's unit. Scott is still the star of this line, but that young talent now has experience and is poised to step up in a big way.

Last Year

The anchor of the defense last year was easily redshirt junior DE Tyler Scott. Last year, he had the best year by a Northwestern DE since the junior campaign Corey Wootton. Last year, Scott tied the conference lead in sacks, with 9, while also racking up 12.5 tackles for loss, 9th in the Big Ten. He also forced 3 fumbles and broke up 5 passes, an impressive mark for a defensive end. 
Starting on the opposite end of the line was senior DE Quentin Williams. While not the dominant force Scott was, he was very effective, racking up 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a huge interception returned for a touchdown in the Gator Bowl. 
Freshman Dean Lowry served as Scott's backup and hurried the quarterback 6 times, a very impressive number given his limited play time. Freshman Deonte Gibson also looked impressive as a backup to Williams, recording 2 sacks and 3 QB hurries. Ifeadi Odenigbo was also supposed to contribute as a pass rusher off the end in his true freshman year but saw time in only one game and redshirted due to injury. 
Senior Brian Arnfelt served as the starter at one defensive tackle spot. Besides his leadership as a captain of the team, he performed well on the field, recording 25 total tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 3 sacks. 
Sophomore Sean McEvilly started most games at the other DT tackle spot, where he performed relatively well, despite not putting up huge numbers. Junior Will Hampton started game one before losing his spot to McEvilly. He, too, did not put up huge numbers, but was a solid backup. Sophomore Chance Carter played most remaining snaps at DT.

This Year

Scott is again the anchor of this defense. He has looked quite solid in the offseason and, according to Fitz, has taken the next step towards being a great player. Hopefully he can avoid the senior slump seen by both Wootton and Vince Browne. 
A position battle for the other starting defensive end spot broke out between Lowry and Gibson, but it now appears Lowry has all but secured the spot for the opener. I feel the drama over this position battle has been overplayed however, as the Wildcats like to platoon at defensive end, and both will see substantial playing time. 
Much has made of Odenigbo's role in the defense going into this year, and I'm not quite sure exactly where he will fit in. I can say this with a high degree of certainty, however: he will be a big playmaker for the defense this year and into the future. Many have advocated placing him at outside linebacker, as he is a bit undersized, and his greatest contributions are his speed and quickness. He, however, is officially listed as a defensive end, and that is most likely where he will primarily play. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see him play some downs as a stand-up pass rusher in passing situations. This may simply be me dreaming, but I would love to see him play as a sort of pass rushing backer on the same side of the field as Scott. If Scott is double teamed, it opens a clear lane for Odenigbo. If the OT focuses on Odenigbo, Scott can hopefully bull-rush through the single-team blocking. Northwestern also occasionally likes to use a 3 down lineman look in passing downs where Scott moves to the middle, as a sort of nose tackle. Odenigbo would be a great fit for an outside pass rusher in these situations. At the moment, however, this is only speculation. Only time will tell exactly where he will contribute. 
Unsurprisingly, the two biggest non-graduated contributors at defensive tackle appear to be the front-runners for those starting positions: McEvilly and Hampton. Chance Carter is expected to be the first option off the bench and redshirt freshman Greg Kuhar is expected to contribute as well. I am unsure how big a role he will play, but he's an exciting-looking option. He was listed a 4-star recruit by Rivals and turned down offers from a few big dogs, including Michigan, Iowa, and West Virginia. 

Is this an improvement?

Should be. Quentin Williams was very good, and it's sad to see him go, but I honestly thought Lowry and Gibson at times outperformed him last year, so it's exciting to see them get more play time. A lot of people were very excited by Odenigbo last year before he got hurt, and now we finally get a chance to see what he can do.
Losing Arnfelt is similarly sad, but, again, he is not unreplaceable. McEvilly performed well starting last year, and Hampton also looked like a solid option to start. Carter should only keep getting better, and I'm excited to see what Kuhar is capable of.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Northwestern 2013 Football Preview: the Offensive Line

Northwestern had an uncharacteristically good year at offensive line last year, solid across every position. They opened up huge holes in the running game and did a good job of protecting the quarterback, allowing only 1.23 sacks/game, fewest in the Big Ten. This year however, most of last year's starters are gone. The question is, will Northwestern adequately be able to fill these holes?

Last Year

LT Patrick Ward, a fourth year senior, spent his third season as a starter, and first year at left tackle, after moving from right tackle. He performed quite well, being named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten. 
LG Brian Mulroe was a fifth year senior and a third year starter, as well as a captain of the team. He was listed as a second-team All-Big Ten selection by the media, and he was named Honorable Mention All-Big Ten by the coaches for the second consecutive year. 
C Brandon Vitabile had an impressive year last year as a sophomore, starting every game at center after being placed on the Rimington watch list. He has started every game since his redshirt freshman season. 
RG Neal Dieters started 11 games at right guard last season, his redshirt senior year, after missing the first two due to injury. He started 16 games throughout his career. Senior Chuck Porcelli started the other two games at the position. 
RT Jack Konopka, a true sophomore last season, started all 13 games at right tackle after switching from superback. 
A few other players had contributions on the line last year. Tackle Paul Jorgensen, a sophomore last year, appeared in all 13 games, mostly in goalline situations. Matt Frazier appeared as a reserve guard in 11 of 13 games as a freshman. Geoff Mogus appeared as a reserve or special teams player in all 13 games. Finally, Taylor Paxton, a senior last year, appeared in five games as a reserve.

This Year

LT Jack Konopka is expected to make the move from right tackle to left tackle to replace Patrick Ward. 
LG Mogus should get his first go as a starter replacing Mulroe at left guard. 
C Vitabile returns as a center and faces big expectations, again appearing on the Rimington watch list. He should be the anchor of this line. 
RG Ian Park is expected to start at right guard as a redshirt freshman, and honestly, I know very little about the guy. He was a 3-star recruit and has apparently impressed in practices. 
RT Paul Jorgensen steps up as the starter here, filling the hole Konopka left by switching positions. 

Is this an improvement? 

For the first time, I have to say no. The line looked quite good last year, and losing three starters stings. I don't want to say this unit will be bad, because I have no reason to think it will be. The issue is that I have no solid reason to think it will be great either. Northwestern's offensive line is simply an uncertainty. If there's any good news to be taken from this, it's that the line is now quite young, with no seniors starting. Even if the line flounders somewhat this year, we will have an experienced line going into the future.

2013 Northwestern Football Preview: The Superbacks

I feel it may be necessary to start this post with an introduction explaining what a superback is. After all, no one outside of Northwestern, as far as I have seen, utilizes a position by this name. Essentially, this position is something of a hybrid-back, filling the roles of a tight end, H-back, fullback, and slot receiver.In general however, it's safe to think of a superback as a versatile tight end. It's a position that, from 2008 through 2011, was filled, and filled well, by Drake Dunsmore. With his departure, superback was a big question mark last year. Regardless, the position performed well above expectations.

Last Year

True freshman Dan Vitale stepped up to fill the role Dunsmore vacated, and did so quite successfully. Despite being recruited by most schools as a safety, he looked right at home in this superback position, managing 28 catches for 288 yards and 2 TDs for the year, and he improved as the year went on, as his best performances came against Micigan State (9 catches for 110 yards) and in the Gator Bowl (7 catches for 82 yards). He also had substantial contributions that do not show up on the stat sheet, most notably his high-quality blocking in the run game. He also had a Dunsmore-esque ability to shed tackles. All things considered, he actually had a better year than Dunsmore's freshman year that occurred in a much more pass-heavy Northwestern offense. There was a lot to like, to say the least, from Dan Vitale last season. 
No other player had nearly the contribution Vitale had at the superback position. Tim Riley was arguably the number 2 guy, and certainly the second-leading superback on the stat sheet. That being said, he only carried the ball 8 times for 39 yards and caught 3 passes for 26 yards. He did, however, manage a touchdown reception. Many fans expected, or at least hoped for, a solid year out of Evan Watkins, a quarterback-turned superback. He, however, missed the entire year due to injury. Brian Smith, saw decent time, primarily as a goal line blocker, playing in 10 games. However, all 3 of these guys are now gone, after using only 3 years of eligibility. 
Redshirt freshmen Doug Diedrick and Mark Szott were also on the team but saw very limited play time. Meanwhile, Jack Schwaba redshirted. 

This Year

Vitale will again fill the "Dunsmore" role. Evidently, he spent the offseason bulking up and has actually improved his athleticism. Following the trend of his increased role throughout last season, as well as the jump Dunsmore took going from his freshman to sophomore year, it's fairly safe to expect a big year from him. 
Behind Vitale, the depth chart is somewhat hard to predict. Szott is typically predicted to be the number 2 option, but my (admittedly somewhat unfounded) guess is that Schwaba will step up. Diedrick is typically seen as the fourth option. Jayme Taylor, a Rivals 2-star tight end prospect, is expected to redshirt. 
Overall, this is a very young group, comprised entirely of freshmen and sophomores. If Vitale suffers an injury, it is difficult to predict how this unit will fare, but, assuming he stays healthy, this is a good looking group. 

Is this an improvement?

Yes (Sensing a trend?). As previously noted, Vitale improved as the year went on, and spent his offseason improving his size and athleticism. He's due for a big year and may be one of the quarterbacks' top targets. Beside Vitale, while three superbacks have been lost since last year, none were huge contributors and fit relatively niche roles that should be easily filled by Diedrick, Szott, or Schwaba. Overall, however, this position will live or die by Vitale's performance.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

2013 Northwestern Football Preview: The Wide Receivers.

Last year, high expectations were placed upon the Northwestern wide receiving corps. Some even expected the 'Cats to have one of the top receiving units in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, they did not come close to living up to these (admittedly unreasonable) expectations. Part of this was obviously due to Northwestern being a heavily run-oriented team, but even in passing situations the receivers did not look exceptional. Perhaps a greater issue was the loss of wide receiver coach Kevin Johns to Indiana after the 2010 season. The unit has not looked the same since. With Coach Dennis Springer entering his third year as wide receiver coach, hopefully we're due for some improvement.

Last Year

Demetrius Fields: Fields, a senior last year, was expected to be the leader of this unit. While his leadership skills were there, production did not live up to expectations. He saw a regression from his junior year, catching only 2.5 passes per game for 304 yards (9.24 yrds/rec) and one touchdown. He finished only 4th on the team in total receiving yards. Despite his relative struggles, Fields has found a spot (for the time being, at least) on the roster of the St. Louis Rams. 
Christian Jones: After showing promise in 2011 as a true freshman, Jones stepped up big in 2012, leading the team in receptions (35), receiving yardage (412) , and yards per catch (11.77), while also contributing 2 TDs. He's an athletic guy, and at 6-2 and 225 lbs, an imposing force. 
Tony Jones: After redshirting in 2011 due to a knee injury, he filled the role of Northwestern's deep threat last season. The speedster led the team in receiving touchdowns, with 4. He also finished second in yards and yards per catch, while finishing fourth in receptions. 
Rashad Lawrence: Lawrence had the most impact of his career last year, as a junior. He finished second on the teams in receptions, with 34, while finishing third in yardage, with 321. Interestingly, however, he never managed to get into the endzone. Most of Lawrence's touches came while Trevor Siemian was on the field, as the two were high school teammates, and had a clear rapport. 
Kyle Prater: Prater is an anomaly. He once once considered a can't-miss prospect coming out of high school, resulting in him being a consensus 5-star recruit, and signing with the USC Trojans. Suffering from injuries, he redshirted in 2010 and had virtually no impact in 2011, catching only one pass for 6 yards. After 2011, he decided to transfer closer to home, and eventually decided on Northwestern. Granted a waiver by the NCAA, he was allowed to play last year as a sophomore. As a result, Wildcat Nation went crazy, and expected huge things out of him. However, it is safe to say he did not live up to the hype. He looked lost running routes and only managed 10 catches for 54 yards, failing to ever get into the endzone. He was often used more as a blocker than a receiver, but his 6-5 frame was useful in that regard. 
Kain Colter: If you're knew to Wildcat football, you should be very confused right now. No, this is not a different "Kain Colter" than the quarterback I profiled earlier; he simply will occasionally line up at receiver when not at quarterback. He started doing this in 2011, when he caught 43 passes (as a reference point, that's more than any NU receiver from last year managed) for 458 yards and 3 touchdowns. His usage at WR was down significantly last year, but not gone, as he still managed 16 catches for 169 yards, but he never got a touchdown catch. 
The Rest: Cameron Dickerson had a small role as a redshirt freshman, catching 9 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. As a redshirt junior last year, Mike Jensen was loved by coaches due to his work ethic, but was hampered by injuries and caught only 2 passes for 21 yards. Pierre Youngblood-Ary was a talented-looking freshman, but caught only one pass on the year. 

This Year

Many players' roles will remain virtually unchanged. Expect the Joneses to again be the most heavily-featured receivers. Tony Jones is expected to again be the starting split-back (the receiver lined up furthest from the center), which Christian Jones will likely take a more versatile role, allowing him to be placed on various parts of the field as a sort of flex-back. Rashad Lawrence should also see substantial time on the field, typically on the opposite end of the field from Tony. In four-receiver sets, the fourth starter is, at the moment, somewhat up in the air. My money is on Kyle Prater playing in a slot position, putting him in a position to showcase his blocking. I do not expect him to live up to initial expectations, but I would be surprised if he does not play a bigger role in the passing game this year, particularly in the red zone. 
While the aforementioned guys are expected to start, Northwestern utilizes a heavy rotation at the receiver position, and other players should see plenty of snaps. Youngblood-Ary, Dickerson, and Jensen should all seefairly substantial time, and I would not be terribly surprised if Dickerson snags a starting role. Beyond this, there are a lot of young guys on the roster who may one day be big contributors, but don't expect much out of them this year.

Is this an improvement? 

I have to assume it is. Demetrius Fields and his valuable leadership are gone, but that is the only loss in this unit. And I've said it before and I'll say it again: Experience is very important. This unit has another offseason of work under its belt, and there's a lot of talent to like here. 

Thursday, August 15, 2013

2013 Northwestern Football Preview: The Running Backs


From the 2009 through 2011 seasons, Northwestern lacked a feature back, and had poor production at the running back position. Arby Fields never lived up to expectations and eventually transferred. The same can be said of Adonis Smith. Mike Trumpy was at times effective but had injury issues. Jacob Schmidt often looked good, but was more of a running fullback than an every down halfback. As a result, despite ostensibly being a run-first team, and despite having mobile quarterbacks, Northwestern struggled in the running game, failing to do better than 45th in the country in yrds/gm in any given year of the 3-year span. Their yrds/att was even weaker, never doing better than 88th in the country and falling to 111th in 2009 (out of only 120 teams). Over that same span, only one Northwestern running back broke 500 yards (Trumpy in 2010 with 530), and in 2009 only one back broke 300 (Fields with 302). This trend broke in a big way when Venric Mark came in to have the best year by a Northwestern running back since Tyrell Sutton's 2005 year (and an argument can certainly be made that Venric's season was better). Let's now take a more complete look at last year's running back performances.

Last Season

Venric Mark: While Venric was a junior last year, it was his first year at running back, having spent his first two years officially listed as a wide receiver. While many fans thought he would become a successful running back, few thought he'd become the dominant feature back he actually became. Nonetheless, he had instant impact, putting up 82 yards on 14 carries against Syracuse. His season would only improve from there as he put up 1366 yards on the year, 23rd best among all players nationwide. His 6.04 yrds/att also blew away his recent predecessors at Northwestern. He also had an impact in the passing game, catching 20 passes for 104 yards. His combination of incredible acceleration and quickness were extremely valuable and meshed quite well with Colter's skills in the option game. Just in case you forgot how good he was: 

Mike Trumpy: While Mark was undeniably the leader of the unit, he did not do it alone. While Trumpy's speed should not be downplayed, his strength and motor we largely responsible from his value in the running game when compared with Mark's much smaller frame. While he only got 76 carries, he managed 349 yards and 3 touchdowns, not bad at all for a true backup. 
Tyris Jones: Senior Tyris Jones provided a very different look in the backfield, more often blocking than taking carries, and he was very successful in the blocking game. However, he did have some success in the running game in short yardage situations. Again though, his running role was very limited, getting only 40 carries for 143 yards and 2 TDs. 
The Rest: Treyvon Green has some promise, but faced injury issues that limited him to only 22 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown in his sophomore season. Tim Hanrahan was apparently an extremely hard worker and beloved by the coaching staff, but saw a very limited role in the offense, receiving only 8 carries for 31 yards. Malin Jones and Stephen Buckley redshirted. 

This Season

Venric is again the feature back entering into his senior year. Expect more of the same from him (read: a lot of option pitches and read option carries, particularly alongside Colter). Of course, while he has put on some weight, his tiny frame is cause for injury concern. Fortunately, Northwestern has depth at this position. I expect Trumpy to again be #2. He will likely have another 70-80 carry year, barring a Mark injury, in which case he is ready to step into the starting role. 
Beyond these two, carries are somewhat up for grabs. Treyvon Green is again an option, stepping into his junior year. While he has never looked spectacular, he is presumably healthy this year and may have a chance to contribute. Malin Jones is entering his redshirt freshman year and is likely to be a contributor this year. He was a fairly highly regarded recruit, who, while not exceptionally fast, is fast enough, and has a high motor. His highlight video reminds me a bit of a Trumpy-type. Some also expect speedy redshirt freshman Stephen Buckley to see some time. While he's looked good in the spring, and excites me for the future, I doubt we'll see much of him this year. 
Northwestern also has two very exciting true freshman coming in. They will almost certainly redshirt, but are guys to keep an eye on. The first is Warren Miles Long, a guy who looks quite comfortable running through traffic. The other is Xavier Menifield, a small, quick back with good vision and decent hands (remind you of anyone?). 

Is this an improvement?

If Mark stays healthy, yes. While losing Tyris Jones hurts in terms of pass protection, his role will likely be adequately filled by someone else. Other than Jones, no player is lost, so there is a great deal of experience in the position, which is absolutely a good thing, and having guys like Malin Jones step in are great for depth. This is a very, very exciting position for Northwestern this year. 

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

2013 Northwestern Football Preview - The Quarterbacks


College football is fast approaching, and I, for one, could not be more excited. The 'Cats had an excellent year last year, going 10-3 and finally getting the bowl game monkey off their backs. This year, Northwestern has all the pieces to be even better. So let's go ahead and start breaking down this year's Wildcat team, starting with the quarterbacks.

Last Year

Last year, the Wildcats did not have a true starter at quarterback. Both rising senior Kain Colter and rising junior Trevor Siemian saw significant playing time at the position, responsible for 319 and 238 plays respectively. For the most part, Colter was viewed as the 'Cats' running option at quarterback, while Simian was viewed as the passing option, and, for the most part, this is an accurate assessment. Let's now take a more in-depth look at each quarterback's role in the offense this last season. 

Colter: Many Wildcats fans will argue that Colter's passing abilities are frequently underrated, and that to view him as simply a run threat is to undervalue his role and skill set. These fans typically point to his admittedly stellar 67.3% completion percentage, a number that is comparable to the likes of A.J. McCarron of Alabama. However, Colter has never struck me as a terribly impressive passer. He fails to pass the "eye test," as his passes had a notable lack of zip, and had a tendency to float. He also appeared to lack the confidence and ability to make the difficult passes. Statistically speaking, he also had a mediocre passing year. His yardage (67 yrds/gm) and scoring (8 TDs) were pedestrian, and even his supposedly excellent accuracy was inflated by the fact that his completed passes tended to be remarkably short (8.6 yrds/comp). All this, however, should not be read as too harsh a criticism of Colter, simply because he was not asked to do too much with his arm. The fact is, Colter was a dynamic, talented, and highly valuable quarterback due to his legs and ability to run the option. His 894 rush yards were 8th most among quarterbacks nationwide, while his 5.2 yrds/att were good for 9th. He also took advantage of his attempts, as his 12 touchdowns were 7th among quarterbacks. Perhaps Colter's most valuable attribute was his ability to create in important situations. Out of his 34 rush attempts on 3rd and short-to-mid situations, he converted on a remarkable 23 of his carries. Furthermore, much of Colter's value in the running game is hard to quantify, as he had an innate sense of when to keep and when to pitch in the option game, often setting up his running backs for big runs. Finally, Colter had all the intangibles needed of him last year. He was a tremendous leader and was willing to humbly step out of the game in favor of Siemian when needed.

Siemian: While Siemian did occasionally contribute to the running game, most notably with an excellent read-option keeper for a touchdown in the Gator Bowl, he was undoubtedly the Wildcats' passing quarterback last year. One thing really stands out while looking through Siemian's game log from last year: his inconsistency. At times he was truly brilliant, such as in his 308 yard performance against Indiana or his brief, 2 TD appearance against Michigan. Other times, he stunk, such as his 1-7 showing against Minnesota, or his 43% completion percentage against Nebraska. He was a guy with incredible skill, and occasionally spectacular moxie (his game-winning drive against Syracuse comes to mind), but the inconsistencies of a 2-quarterback system often seemed to hinder him, as he simply looked out of rhythm. Nonetheless, despite his inconsistencies, I loved having the guy. His ability to step up in situations where Colter did not provide us a great opportunity to win was highly valuable, and the guy stepped up BIG time in situations in which the 'Cats were tied or down by less than a touchdown, going 66-103 for 698 yards, 6 TDs, and no INTs in such situations.

Backups: Backups saw very limited play last year with Zack Oliver going 2-2 for 14 yards and walk-on P.J. Carullo making a brief appearance.

This Year

In a lot of ways, expect more of the same. Colter and Siemian will be splitting the starter duties again this year. In fact, their roles seems even more settled this year than at this point last year. Hopefully with the two's respective roles a bit more settled, Siemian will be capable of finding a better rhythm so he can avoid the slumps he suffered from last year. I would expect a few more run sets for Siemian and more pass sets for Colter just to keep defenses off-balance and maybe even some 2 QB sets. At the very least, I would expect some more sets in which Colter lines up at receiver. Otherwise, I would not expect either player to look terribly different than they did last year. 
On the bench behind these two quarterbacks is sophomore Zack Oliver. While I wouldn't expect to see much of him outside of blowout scenarios, he is a highly competent option in case of disaster. He has looked good in practices and reportedly has the strongest arm on the team. That being said, let's hope we don't have to see much of him. 
Entering the team this year is highly-regarded quarterback Matt Alviti. While he is expected to redshirt this year, he is still a guy to keep an eye on this year in practices, as, by all accounts, he will be running this team soon enough. Considered by some to be Dan Persa 2.0 he is a dual-threat option with comparable ability to throw down the field and take off running. 

Is this an improvement? 

Yes. A year of experience is never a bad thing. The fact that Colter and Siemian are used to sharing the workload and that the coaches have gained a sense of how to best use the two is great for the team. Reportedly, the coaching staff has already been able to incorporate plays into the offense that they were not able to put into place until mid-season last year. This could be a scary and exciting duo this year.